Close to Oman’s mountain-crested capital of Muscat, a uncommon act of violence final week shook a peaceable nation largely bereft of even petty crime.
Gunfire rang out, and shouts of “Oh God!” have been heard on July 15 in Wadi Kabir, a district east of Muscat, as three gunmen entered the Imam Ali Mosque.
Congregants have been gathered for a main spiritual occasion for Shia Muslims. However the occasion ended with 5 folks killed – 4 Pakistani nationals and a policeman – and no less than 30 others wounded, in response to Omani and Pakistani authorities.
In a rustic identified for “distinctive” spiritual tolerance and a protracted custom of coexistence, the true goal might need been Oman’s stability, particularly given its position as a regional mediator, say analysts.
Quickly after, ISIL (ISIS) claimed accountability for the assault – its first ever of an operation within the Gulf nation.
However specialists stated it’s unclear if the assault was really carried out by ISIL. Greater than every week after the assault, the group has supplied no proof besides a video of the three alleged bombers — supposedly brothers — pledging allegiance to ISIL’s chief.
With the area and world targeted on Israel’s brutal conflict on Gaza, ISIL — whether or not or not it was really behind the assault — could also be attempting to remain related, heightening sectarian divisions, particularly in locations the place nearly none exists, analysts recommend.
Sowing discord to divert
“It’s clear that [ISIL] depends on a technique of claiming accountability for assaults even when it had no precise involvement, with the goal of inciting chaos and sectarian strife,” Faozi Algoidi, a analysis fellow on the Center East Council on World Affairs, instructed Al Jazeera.
“By asserting accountability for incidents that will initially be unintended or socially motivated, the organisation enhances the sectarian and terrorist nature of those occasions, bringing the problem of sectarian battle again to the forefront.”
ISIL’s objective could also be to indicate that the organisation continues to be energetic and able to hanging anyplace, to stir worry and enhance sectarian tensions in locations of in any other case safety and peace, like Oman, he added.
This may increasingly have been why the assault occurred on the event of Ashura, among the many holiest instances of the yr for Shia Muslims, in response to Andreas Krieg, a professor at King’s School London and CEO of MENA analytica, a MENA-focused political danger agency.
“That’s precisely what [ISIL] needed to attain … polarise sectarian dialogue and discourse in a really tolerant and inclusive nation, and likewise throughout the area,” Krieg instructed Al Jazeera. “They have been in search of an iconic second the place they’ll have an effect.”
The assault additionally possible occurred presently as a result of armed teams understand that the area’s intelligence companies are targeted extra on Israel’s ongoing conflict in Gaza, say analysts.
“This timing suggests a strategic selection by [ISIL] to use perceived vulnerabilities,” Harley Lippman, an adviser on the USAID Partnership for Peace Fund, targeted on Center East peace efforts, instructed Al Jazeera.
The assault in Oman follows related acts in Russia and Iran. In March, the group stated it was behind an assault that killed greater than 140 folks at a live performance corridor close to Moscow, and in January it claimed accountability for 2 explosions in Kerman that killed almost 100.
The variety of operations claimed by ISIL this yr in contrast with final yr has doubled, additional indicating a hidden agenda to divert consideration within the area from the scenario in Gaza, stated Algoidi.
Why Oman?
Past its stability, Oman might have been singled out for the assault attributable to its position as a frequent regional mediator, say analysts.
Within the battle in Yemen, specifically, Oman has been attempting to bridge a spot between the Iran-aligned Houthi group and the Saudi-backed authorities. “The truth that the Omanis are attempting to create cohesion, consensus in Yemen and attempting to resolve the battle is one thing that [ISIL] disagrees with,” stated Krieg. “They want battle in Yemen to thrive.”
Oman’s ties with Iran might have additionally embittered the group. ISIL views Tehran as an “archenemy”, Krieg added.
An ISIL community current in Oman is extremely unlikely, Krieg stated, and the incident fairly factors to the work of a cell with hyperlinks to Yemen. The group’s cell construction means “lone wolf” ISIL-linked teams can launch operations even with out membership inside ISIL itself, he defined.
He believes it’s a single, remoted occasion and never a resurgence of the group — no less than not within the Gulf area. “This will occur actually in any nation. It could actually occur within the UK,” stated Krieg.
