If it types, Rafael can be the eleventh hurricane of the 2024 season and will strike western Cuba as a Class 1 storm.
Miami, Florida, United States – A hurricane is predicted to type within the Caribbean and convey heavy rain and mudslides to Cuba earlier than heading into the nice and cozy waters of the Gulf of Mexico, in line with the US Nationwide Climate Service.
Tropical Storm Rafael is predicted to strengthen right into a hurricane on Monday because it approaches Jamaica and will additionally convey heavy rainfall to the Florida Keys and elements of the southeastern US later within the week, the Miami-based Nationwide Hurricane Heart (NHC) mentioned.
Jamaica and Cuba might have as much as 230mm (9 inches) of rain, doubtlessly inflicting flooding.
The federal government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Look ahead to the capital, Havana, and provinces in jap Cuba, together with Pinar del Rio and Matanzas.
The storm might exacerbate an acute vitality disaster in Cuba. Components of the island have skilled extended energy outages in latest weeks as a result of decrepit infrastructure and a scarcity of gasoline for its oil-fired energy stations.
Cuba continues to be recovering from Hurricane Oscar, which made landfall on the jap finish of the island two weeks in the past with most sustained winds of about 130km/h (80mph).
The brand new climate system was nonetheless solely a tropical melancholy early on Monday and was situated about 310km (196 miles) south of Kingston, Jamaica. It had most sustained winds of 55km/h (35mph) and was shifting north at 15km/h (9mph), the NHC mentioned.
A tropical storm types when sustained winds attain 63km/h (39mph), and it turns into a hurricane after they attain 119km/h (74mph).
The storm was anticipated to maneuver close to Jamaica late on Monday and is predicted to achieve hurricane energy earlier than it reaches western Cuba late on Tuesday or early on Wednesday.
Forecasters mentioned the core of the hurricane is forecast to move west of Florida whereas adversarial atmospheric circumstances ought to forestall Rafael, the 18th named storm of the 2024 hurricane season, from creating right into a life-threatening climate system because it approaches the US coast over the Gulf of Mexico.
This hurricane season has seen above common exercise with 10 hurricanes already, together with two main ones – Helene and Milton – which hit Florida and North Carolina, inflicting widespread destruction and killing greater than 200 individuals.
Solely seven seasons on report have had 11 Atlantic hurricanes by the primary week of November, in line with Philip Klotzbach, a meteorologist at Colorado State College.
Potential Tropical Cyclone 18 has shaped within the Caribbean and is forecast to change into a #hurricane by 6 November. If it does, it will be the eleventh of the 2024 Atlantic season. 7 seasons on report have had 11+ Atlantic hurricanes by 6 Nov: 1933, 1950, 1969, 1995, 2005, 2010, 2020. pic.twitter.com/EXYqB5ZLPC
— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) November 3, 2024
“It’s value noting that solely 4 hurricanes within the fashionable report (since 1966) have been recorded within the Gulf of Mexico in November, so a hurricane right here this late within the season can be an uncommon occasion,” famous Michael Lowry, a hurricane specialist in Miami and writer of the Eye on the Tropics weblog.
