Whatever the timing, Putin is extra prone to double down on strain in opposition to Ukraine on all fronts, together with within the marketing campaign in opposition to civilian infrastructure.
Ukraine may not be capable to capitalise on relaxed US guidelines of engagement to the extent it had hoped.
WHAT WILL DONALD TRUMP INHERIT?
One other threat is the response from the subsequent Trump administration. One of many incoming president’s overseas coverage advisers, Richard Grenell, was crucial of the choice.
Trump himself, nonetheless, might have a look at it as a manner of Biden placing strain on Putin now that may give him extra leverage as soon as he takes workplace to “settle” the conflict. It might make it simpler to strain Putin to just accept a deal if Russia misplaced the momentum it at the moment has on the battlefield.
What is evident is that after 1,000 days of gruelling conflict, permitting Ukraine to strike deep into Russian territory with US weapons now’s too little and too late for a army victory.
It might, nonetheless, be simply sufficient to keep away from a humiliating defeat at a negotiation desk chaired by Trump.
Stefan Wolff is Professor of Worldwide Safety on the College of Birmingham and Head of the Division of Political Science and Worldwide Research.
