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Home»Hollywood»Oscars 2025 predictions primarily based on BAFTA Awards 2025 winners
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Oscars 2025 predictions primarily based on BAFTA Awards 2025 winners

DaneBy DaneFebruary 17, 2025No Comments5 Mins Read
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Oscars 2025 predictions primarily based on BAFTA Awards 2025 winners
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The BAFTAs didn’t fairly ignora Anora, the present Oscar frontrunner, however the British Academy which has a whole bunch of voters in frequent with the Academy of Movement Image Arts & Sciences determined to shake issues up splitting some massive prizes between their nominations chief, Conclave successful 4 together with Greatest Movie, Greatest British Movie, Movie Enhancing and Greatest Tailored Screenplay whereas The Brutalist additionally gained 4 together with Greatest Director for Brady Corbet and Greatest Actor for Adrien Brody, Cinematography and Music Rating, however in a blended bag of outcomes it misplaced Greatest Unique Screenplay to Jesse Eisenberg’s A Actual Ache which wasn’t even nominated for Greatest Image.

Anora additionally surprisingly misplaced Unique Screenplay simply hours after taking its third main guild award on the WGA awards Saturday night time within the class (in a column final week I warned about the specter of Eisenberg’s A Actual Ache stealing its thunder and that’s what occurred in London). However taking a distinct path than the DGA PGA and WGA (typically extra predictive voting our bodies by way of the place the Oscar winds are blowing), the Brits had different concepts handing it solely a Casting statuette (a class becoming a member of Oscars however not this yr) after which a little bit of a shocker on the finish by anointing star Mikey Madison lead actress over favourite Demi Moore. Madison had misplaced to her at Golden Globes and Critics Alternative however now may very well be staging a comeback with SAG and Indie Spirits nonetheless to come back pre-Oscars subsequent weekend. Brazil’s I’m Nonetheless Right here Golden Globe Drama Actress winner Fernanda Torres, not nominated at BAFTA or SAG is the wild card on the Oscars making that class a little bit of crapshoot at this level. In any other case the appearing prizes at BAFTA for Brody, A Actual Ache’s Kieran Culkin, and Emilia Perez‘s Zoe Saldana add to their momentum heading into SAG. Nobody has knocked them out wherever.

Mikey Madison

Mikey Madison

Getty

Neither of tonight’s massive winners Conclave or The Brutalist gained something at PGA, DGA, or WGA (the place each had been ineligible resulting from arcane Writers Guild guidelines about working underneath their MBA so let’s add an asterisk to this statistic), in any other case I believe Peter Straughan’s Golden Globe and Critics Alternative successful Conclave would have been amongst WGA winners for certain. Nonetheless it’s uncommon to nail a BAFTA Greatest Movie with out a minimum of one main guild win. Conclave has an opportunity to vary that trajectory at SAG however that guild, with voting nonetheless open till Friday, gained’t have a direct impression on Oscar with its precise winners as Oscar voting ends Tuesday. Conclave is within the working for Excellent Forged, SAG’s equal of Greatest Image. So what current movie gained Greatest Movie at BAFTA with out additionally taking even one of many 4 main guild awards? 2014’s Boyhood involves thoughts. It was nominated and shut out at every of them, gained at BAFTA, and went on to lose the Greatest Image Oscar to Birdman.

L-R: Adrien Brody and Guy Pearce in The Brutalist

Adrien Brody, Man Pearce in The Brutalist

A24/Courtesy Everett Assortment

In reality till final yr’s sweep of Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer at each Oscars and BAFTA, the earlier 9 years didn’t see settlement on their Greatest Image winner aside from the disastrous 2020 Covid yr when Nomadland gained each in a really bizarre awards season. Conclave, a film each Oscar voter I discuss to appears to admire, has the drawback of its director Edward Berger being snubbed within the Greatest Director race, however with a preferential poll that may not be a hindrance anymore. Berger’s motion pictures, All Quiet On The Western Entrance and Conclave are actually two for 2 as BAFTA’s Greatest Movie. Spectacular.

As for the a lot mentioned Ms. Perez, the scandal and controversy over Karla Sofia Gascon’s previous tweets didn’t ultimately utterly derail the movie’s general possibilities at BAFTA because it turned out. Successful Movie Not In The English Language and Supporting Actress for Zoe Saldana (who devoted her win to her trans nephew), it joined the winners circle in what seems to be its strongest classes on the Oscars proper now as properly (there is no such thing as a Greatest Tune given at BAFTA). Nonetheless with 11 nominations you would possibly surprise if its haul couldn’t have been larger with out the bags. We’ll by no means know. Netflix scored simply as massive tonight with its pleasant and really british Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl which ran over Wild Robotic and Stream for Greatest Animated Characteristic and in addition successful within the Household/Childrens Movie class.

Some consolation meals for Anora: Solely Brokeback Mountain managed to go on to lose the Greatest Image Oscar after successful at PGA, DGA, and WGA, simply as Anora has executed within the final week, and Anora nonetheless has SAG to overcome, one thing even Brokeback couldn’t do. So BAFTA good occasions for Conclave and The Brutalist may very well be short-lived if you wish to go by stats, however apart from a few of my fellow pundits who cares about these?

My unscientific surveys mirror among the shuffling the place Academy voters are involved. First a superb quantity are strugging to see as a lot as they’ll earlier than ballots are due at 5pm pt Tuesday. One sound department member advised me at my Santa Barbara Movie Pageant tribute night to Adrien Brody and Man Pearce Thursday night time that he’s frantically attempting to look at on the digital platform “however it’s like homework” he stated. Others are all around the map by way of their primary alternative with some not even making it by sure titles that gained’t be named right here.

Three days left to vote, Academy members. Oscars two weeks from tonight. Fasten your seatbelts.

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