COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, I absolutely recognize that you don’t have any curiosity in profitable a Nobel Prize. Nevertheless, the pc you might have developed is way extra correct than something concerning markets or geopolitics that has ever been created. This week was the turning level, as is Could after which June, with a Panic Cycle. You forecast in 2019 that conflict would come to India and Pakistan in 2025. No one has ever been capable of present such correct forecasts years prematurely. I have no idea what to say, however I consider everybody studying this could ship a letter to the Nobel Fee to appoint you for that is extra essential than simply you, that is about society making that one step ahead for mankind, as Neil Armstrong mentioned.
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REPLY: Thanks. Milton Friedman informed me that what I used to be doing was essential for society. He got here to take heed to me at a tech convention in Chicago. I’m not certain if it was a Computrac or Market Technicians Convention. No one appears to have the information from then. If anybody have been there and remembers, I’d love to listen to from you.
India mentioned it carried out army strikes on 9 websites in Pakistan in retaliation for a lethal militant assault on vacationers in Kashmir, intensifying a confrontation between the nuclear-armed neighbors. India mentioned its forces carried out strikes on camps that terrorists have used to stage assaults in opposition to India, in keeping with a press release launched on Wednesday. This was an anticipated response after it pledged retaliation for an assault final month in Kashmir that killed 26 folks. India mentioned it had NOT focused any Pakistani army amenities. Studies affirm that India fired missiles at a number of targets that, in keeping with Pakistani officers, killed a baby and wounded two different folks.
The ties between the 2 have quickly deteriorated within the wake of the Kashmir assault. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s authorities has accused Pakistan of involvement and vowed to punish these accountable. Pakistan has denied any hyperlinks to the assaults and warned of retaliation if India takes army motion. This comes down as to whether escalation will unfold from mid-Could into June.
Pakistan has closed its airspace to Indian airways, a transfer India matched. India has ordered Pakistani nationals in India to go away and decreased the variety of workers allowed at Pakistan’s diplomatic mission. India’s army has been guarding the disputed border with China since 2020. China is an in depth ally of Pakistan and its prime weapons supplier. A conflict between India and Pakistan might simply see China on Pakistan’s aspect.
In a hypothetical state of affairs the place India faces a battle with Pakistan, with China backing Pakistan, India’s assist would doubtless come from a mixture of strategic companions, influenced by geopolitical pursuits and current alliances:
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United States:
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Strategic Partnership: The U.S. has deepened protection ties with India via agreements like LEMOA (Logistics Alternate Memorandum of Settlement) and sees India as a counterbalance to China within the Indo-Pacific. Diplomatic, intelligence, and logistical assist (e.g., arms gross sales, satellite tv for pc information) can be possible, although direct army intervention is much less sure except U.S. pursuits are instantly threatened.
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Quad Alliance: The U.S. would possibly rally Quad companions (Japan, Australia) to exert diplomatic and financial strain on China, although their army roles would rely on the battle’s scope.
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France and Israel:
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France: A serious protection provider (e.g., Rafale jets), France might present superior weapons and diplomatic backing, leveraging its UN Safety Council place.
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Israel: Prone to provide intelligence, precision-guided munitions, and cybersecurity assist, given its strong protection ties with India.
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Regional Companions:
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Japan and Australia: Diplomatic assist and sanctions in opposition to China/Pakistan, with restricted army involvement except the battle escalates regionally.
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Gulf States (UAE, Saudi Arabia): May supply financial assist or mediation, balancing historic ties to Pakistan with rising Indian partnerships.
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Russia:
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Balancing Act: Traditionally, a key arms provider, Russia’s assist can be constrained by its alignment with China post-Ukraine. It would stay impartial or dealer negotiations to keep away from alienating both aspect.
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Multilateral Organizations:
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Home and Nuclear Components:
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India’s intensive army and nuclear arsenal would act as a deterrent, lowering reliance on exterior intervention. Nevertheless, atomic escalation dangers would provoke international strain for a ceasefire.
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This turns into very sophisticated. China’s Regional Affect is to not be ignored. The ASEAN nations (e.g., Vietnam, Philippines) would possibly tacitly assist India however keep away from overt involvement to keep away from antagonizing China. Then there’s the difficulty of financial interdependence. For instance, nations with important commerce ties to China (e.g., Germany, South Korea) would most certainly restrict assist to India to keep away from financial fallout.
India would doubtless obtain diplomatic, financial, and restricted army assist from the U.S., France, Israel, and Quad companions, whereas Russia and multilateral our bodies would possibly prioritize mediation. Direct army intervention would hinge on the battle’s scale and perceived risk to international stability. The overarching precedence for many nations can be de-escalation to forestall a nuclear or regional disaster.
Conflict is a contagion. It appears to unfold in a single space and unfold. It began with Ukraine, then Taiwan, and now India. Additionally, Carney in Canada has not waged army conflict in opposition to the US, however he has engaged in diplomatic conflict as a result of he’s a part of the WEF elite. He informed Trump that Canada is just not on the market, primarily as a result of he has already bought it to merge with the EU. We’re headed right into a interval of rising tensions globally, and as we are going to see, particularly subsequent yr, all of the outdated grudges will resurface across the globe.
