President Donald Trump’s administration dished out a chilly burn to Trump’s ice-cream-loving predecessor, Joe Biden, saying he led the US ice cream business down an financial rocky street.
“America had a commerce surplus in ice cream in 2020 below President Trump’s management, however that surplus became a commerce deficit of $40.6 million below President Biden’s watch,” the Workplace of the US Commerce Consultant wrote July 20 on X. The put up included a chart that exhibits the US ice cream commerce deficit with Japan, South Africa, the European Union, Brazil, Canada and Turkiye.
The US ice cream commerce steadiness did change dramatically in 2021, the yr Biden took workplace. The commerce steadiness formally flipped unfavourable – which implies imports outnumber exports – in 2022 and has remained so since then.
However business consultants warning that US ice cream imports account for a minuscule fraction of all of the US ice cream consumed within the US, and exports account for a tiny fraction of all US ice cream produced.
The commerce change was pushed largely by a bounce in imports. Exports have remained largely unchanged since 2020.
And the cherry on high? Disagreement over which merchandise to categorise as “ice cream” additionally impacts knowledge, consultants say. For instance, the information referenced by the workplace of the US Commerce Consultant additionally contains “edible ice”, which some consultants (and dairy defenders) say doesn’t qualify as ice cream.
Eradicating edible ice exhibits that “the US is a web exporter by a major margin of ($193 million) or +85% bigger by worth,” Worldwide Dairy Meals Affiliation Government Vice President Matt Herrick instructed PolitiFact by way of electronic mail.
Ice cream imports improve causes US commerce deficit
From 1995 to 2020, the US had an ice cream commerce surplus, starting from about $20m to about $160m, in accordance with the Observatory of Financial Complexity, an internet financial knowledge platform. Longtime prospects embody Mexico, adopted by Saudi Arabia and Canada.
In 2021, that surplus almost vanished, and in 2022 and 2023, the US notched up an ice cream commerce deficit of $92m and $33m, respectively.
At first look, importing frozen meals doesn’t appear sensible.
“Delivery refrigerated and frozen merchandise abroad is pricey,” dairy economist Betty Berningat of HighGround Dairy mentioned. “Mexico is the highest vacation spot for US dairy exports.”
However many US and European firms have tapped into international markets.
“Customers may additionally desire a particular deal with that’s styled after or recognized to be from one other nation,” Herrick mentioned.
Italy, the birthplace of gelato, is now the USA’ largest single supply of imported ice cream. Italian ice cream imports greater than quintupled from about $12m to virtually $65m between 2020 and 2021 alone, earlier than lowering considerably in 2023, the final yr for which knowledge is accessible.
A few of this stems from elevated shopper demand for specialty pints. A report by Mordor Intelligence, a worldwide market analysis agency, mentioned “product innovation and premiumisation” have develop into key within the US ice cream business.
“This pattern is especially evident within the progress of premium pint choices and individually wrapped novelties that cater to each indulgence and portion management preferences,” the report mentioned.
The US produces way more ice cream than it imports or exports
To get to the pint: The overwhelming majority of ice cream consumed in the USA is made there, not abroad.
The Trump administration is cherry-picking stats from a fraction of a sliver of the US ice cream business.
In line with US Agriculture Division knowledge, US ice cream makers churned out 1.31 billion gallons of ice cream in 2024. This contains common ice cream, low-fat and nonfat ice cream, sherbet and frozen yoghurt.
By comparability, the US imported 2.35 million gallons of conventional ice cream in 2024 – that’s 0.18 % of the quantity produced domestically, Herrick mentioned.
The US exported 16.4 million gallons of that home manufacturing, which can also be a tiny fraction of 1.31 billion gallons of ice cream – somewhat greater than 1 %.
Factoring in ice cream mixes, excluding ‘edible ice’ merchandise
One other caveat in regards to the worldwide commerce knowledge: It doesn’t embody “mixes”, which skews the totals, mentioned Herrick of the Worldwide Dairy Meals Affiliation.
Mixes are used to make ice cream shakes and soft-serve merchandise, they usually account for a good portion of US ice cream exports. “Inclusion of such knowledge factors would change the image fairly considerably,” mentioned Herrick. “Whereas it’s true that conventional ice cream and edible ice exports have seen decreased exports, the identical can’t be mentioned for exports of mixes.”
US milk-based drink exports elevated 621 % over the previous 5 years, he mentioned. In 2024, the US exported almost $35m in mixes to the European Union.
Individuals and dairy-based ice cream: A centuries-old love affair melting away?
The White Home has churned out loads of ice cream devotees.
George Washington stocked the capital with ice cream-making tools. Thomas Jefferson is credited as being the primary American to report an ice cream recipe. Ronald Reagan declared July Nationwide Ice Cream Month in 1984. Barack Obama even slung scoops again within the day.
Biden, who was typically sighted with a cone in hand, proclaimed whereas visiting Jeni’s Splendid Ice Cream headquarters in 2016: “My title is Joe Biden, and I really like ice cream.”
However consumption of standard dairy ice cream – a class that doesn’t embody frozen yoghurt, sherbet or nonfat and low-fat ice lotions – has been trending down for years.
In 1975, Individuals ate a mean of 18.2 kilos every of ice cream per yr. That determine fell to 11.7 kilos by 2023.
Our ruling
The workplace of the US Commerce Consultant purported a summertime scoop: “America had a commerce surplus in ice cream in 2020 below President Trump’s management, however that surplus became a commerce deficit of $40.6 million below President Biden’s watch.”
It’s correct that the US ice cream commerce steadiness had a surplus for 1 / 4 of a century earlier than turning unfavourable whereas Biden was president.
However the US Commerce Consultant’s assertion makes the US ice cream deficit seem out of cone-trol.
There are three scoops of context on this commerce sundae:
The change was pushed largely by a bounce in imports. Exports have remained largely unchanged since 2020.
US ice cream imports and exports are a negligible quantity in comparison with home manufacturing.
There’s additionally disagreement over which merchandise ought to or shouldn’t be included within the knowledge set, which might skew pattern interpretations. Excluding edible ice merchandise and factoring in ice cream mixes leaves the US with a surplus.
The assertion is correct however wants a sprinkling of clarification and extra particulars, so we price it Largely True.
Louis Jacobson contributed to this report.
