In a wild-card sport Saturday evening at 8 ET, the battered Miami Dolphins (11-6) will play on the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs (11-6) in what is anticipated to be one of many coldest video games in NFL historical past. With a laundry record of accidents and an underwhelming end to the common season, the Dolphins — a 4.5-point underdog, per FanDuel as of Thursday — appear to have slim hopes of successful. Playoff historical past, nonetheless, suggests there may be room for optimism.
The 5 coldest video games in NFL playoff historical past are as follows: Cowboys-Packers (1967), Chargers-Bengals (1981-82), Seahawks-Vikings (2015-16), Giants-Packers (2007-08) and Raiders-Payments (1993-94). Based mostly on the stats and storylines from these video games, listed below are causes to be optimistic and pessimistic about Miami’s possibilities:
Optimist
Operating the ball shall be key: Among the many 5 coldest matchups in league historical past, the higher-ranked dashing offense between groups prevailed in all however one among them, with the “Freezer Bowl” being the lone exception. Even so, working the ball successfully was nonetheless a significant factor in that sport, with the victorious Bengals outrushing the Chargers 143 yards to 128. This could bode nicely for the Dolphins, contemplating they completed sixth in dashing yards and first in touchdowns dashing. The Chiefs, in the meantime, ranked nineteenth and twenty sixth in these respective classes.
The chances of a detailed sport are larger than not: Though Miami is severely undermanned, our five-game pattern dimension suggests it will possibly preserve issues aggressive towards the defending Tremendous Bowl champion Chiefs. 4 of the 5 coldest playoff video games of all time have been determined by one rating, with the Chargers-Bengals AFC Championship Recreation standing out as soon as once more, as Cincinnati received convincingly 27-7. It is also value noting that Miami’s Week 9 loss to Kansas Metropolis in Germany ended with a rating of 21-14.
A typical pattern amongst successful defenses: Each crew that received its cold-weather playoff matchup ranked inside the highest 10 in both yardage or factors allowed throughout that exact season. The Dolphins’ late-season skid undermined their protection’s scoring rating, however the crew nonetheless managed to complete tenth in yards per sport allowed (318.3). Clearly, since Miami’s unit is so banged up, it most likely will not dwell as much as its season rating, however it nonetheless turned in a commendable efficiency in its 21-14 Week 18 loss to the high-powered Payments.
Highway groups are on a heater: The Dolphins are a distinct crew once they aren’t taking part in at Onerous Rock Stadium, posting a mediocre 4-4 document on the street this season and a 7-10 document in away video games general below HC Mike McDaniel. This may be a trigger for concern, however coming into a hostile atmosphere did not matter for the 2007 Giants and 2015 Seahawks, the winners of the 2 most up-to-date video games we’re utilizing for our comparability.
Pessimist
Residence groups have had the sting: Whereas the guests received the 2 most up-to-date frigid playoff video games, having home-field benefit has traditionally given groups the higher hand, with the 1967 Packers, 1981 Bengals and 1993 Payments every dealing with enterprise at house. Even supposing the 2007 Giants and 2015 Seahawks received on the street, they weren’t simple victories. New York wanted time beyond regulation and a Brett Favre interception earlier than making the successful discipline objective. In the meantime, the Seahawks survived towards the Vikings because of a missed potential go-head 27-yard chip shot by Blair Walsh with simply seconds remaining.
No crew pulled out a win after shedding the earlier sport: Miami’s Week 18 loss to the Payments may be a cautionary signal, given that each crew that received the present 5 coldest video games in playoff historical past got here into the matchup off a win. In fact, for 1967 Packers, 1981 Bengals and 2007 Giants, there was no different manner for this to be the case since their wins happened within the second spherical of the playoffs or later. Nonetheless, wins by the 1993 Payments and 2015 Seahawks got here of their first playoff sport throughout these seasons after they dominated of their regular-season finales. Seattle throttled the Arizona Cardinals 36-6, and Buffalo crushed the Indianapolis Colts 30-10.
The Dolphins have problem adapting to the chilly: Based mostly on each crew title and site, it is not shocking Miami struggles with chilly climate, however its current document in poor climates suggests it’d as nicely already begin planning for the offseason. Based on Stathead, the Dolphins have not received a single one among their final 10 video games when the temperature was beneath 40 levels, with their final win below such situations coming in 2016. In the meantime, the Chiefs are 9-1 of their previous 10 house video games when the temperature was beneath 40 levels, together with 4-0 within the postseason, per CBS Sports activities.
Ultimately, it is all about having the higher protection: Regardless that every winner’s protection ranked inside the highest 12 in scoring and yardage, a number of the losers had stout items of their very own. However in the end, the extra gifted group got here out on high. Each victor outranked the loser in factors or yards allowed coming into their respective conferences, with the 1967 Packers, 1993 Bengals and 2015 Seahawks topping their opponents in each departments. This might show to be one other benefit for the Chiefs, whose protection ranks second in factors (294) and yards (4,926) allowed.
