On a barren swath of land within the Sahara, U.S. Air Base 201 stands removed from public sight, on the outskirts of a distant metropolis in one of many world’s poorest international locations, its function extra elusive than ever since its completion practically six years in the past.
A lot of the drones that after monitored jihadist actions in unstable African international locations have been grounded. A lot of the Individuals posted on the $110 million base, close to the town, Agadez, Niger, sit idle, epitomizing the unsure way forward for the US’ counterterrorism efforts in West Africa: tough to desert, at the same time as enterprise as common is, for now, out of the query.
After a army coup in Niger in July, the US and its European companions halted their cooperation with the nation, which over the previous decade had grow to be one of many greatest recipients of safety help and growth help in Africa.
Because the ruling Nigerien junta consolidates its grip on energy, the Biden administration now faces wrenching new challenges in its struggle towards Islamist militants in Africa. Chief amongst them is resume operations at U.S. Air Base 201 — the highest army asset in a area that’s rising as a worldwide middle of terrorist exercise.
Having labeled the takeover a coup, the US is required by regulation to droop safety operations and growth help to Niger, and can’t absolutely resume them till democracy is restored. So whereas American officers have signaled that they wish to re-establish safety cooperation with Niger’s authorities, doing so with the previous Nigerien president, Mohamed Bazoum, below home arrest would require their threading a diplomatic needle.
Additional complicating issues for Washington, European international locations that invested tons of of tens of millions of {dollars} in help and despatched 1000’s of troops to Niger are divided on what to do subsequent.
The European Union has suspended help, and, on the request of Niger, about 2,000 European troops have departed the nation in latest months — leaving about 1,000 U.S. personnel as the one sizable Western presence within the nation. However a number of European international locations have indicated not too long ago that they’re keen to normalize relations with the junta.
Then there may be the looming risk of Russia, keen to use any breaches in relations between Niger and the Western nations to additional broaden its regional affect. The Kremlin, which not too long ago signed a brand new protection settlement with Niger, is already the popular safety companion of two neighboring international locations preventing Islamist rebellions, Mali and Burkina Faso. The three international locations, all now run by army governments, have vowed to strengthen cooperation below a brand new safety alliance.
“Russia goes to be there it doesn’t matter what — whether or not the U.S. is on the desk or not,” mentioned Daniel Eizenga, a analysis fellow on the Africa Middle for Strategic Research, a Protection Division analysis establishment.
A U.S. army official mentioned the Pentagon was discussing establishing new drone bases with a number of coastal West African international locations as backups to the bottom in Niger, which is landlocked. Talks are nonetheless within the early phases, and a number of particulars would have to be labored out, the official mentioned, talking on the situation of anonymity to debate operational issues. The Wall Road Journal first reported on the discussions on Thursday.
The official added that the U.S. army was nonetheless decided to carry on to Air Base 201, the most important building mission Air Power engineers have ever undertaken alone, even because the coverage within the area is up for dialogue in Washington and any selections have been postpone for now due to the crises in Gaza and Ukraine.
Nonetheless, Aneliese Bernard, a former State Division adviser who labored in Niger within the late 2010s, mentioned talks to maneuver particular forces and drone operations in a foreign country had begun some time in the past.
“As soon as the Niger coup occurred, it grew to become, ‘Yep, it’s seemingly shifting to Ghana and Ivory Coast,’” mentioned Ms. Bernard, now the director of Strategic Stabilization Advisors, a Washington-based danger consultancy, referring to the 2 coastal West African international locations.
With an estimated 11.5 million Nigeriens — 44 % of the inhabitants — dwelling in excessive poverty, in line with the World Financial institution, Niger may need a powerful incentive to patch up relations with the US and Europe to get the help and safety cash flowing once more, some analysts say.
Assaults by militant teams have elevated because the coup, U.S. officers and analysts say, and tons of of colleges stay closed due to the widespread insecurity. International diplomats and humanitarian staff have abandoned the nation, and financial sanctions imposed by a bloc of West African nations have helped ship meals costs hovering and stored even humanitarian help blocked on the border.
Whereas anti-Western sentiment runs excessive in Niamey, the capital, many Nigeriens elsewhere within the nation really feel in any other case, particularly in Agadez, whose historic middle contains the world’s tallest mud-brick mosque and is a UNESCO World Heritage Website.
“We’ve instructed the central authorities, ‘Don’t kick out the French and the Individuals to herald the Russians,’” mentioned Mohamed Anacko, the president of the council within the Agadez area, which is residence to U.S. Air Base 201. “We don’t want new colonizers.”
Many Nigeriens could also be snug with the US’ presence, however the two international locations have an extended option to go. Interactions between the U.S. army and the junta leaders is now restricted to periodic cellphone calls between Gen. Michael Langley, the pinnacle of the U.S. Africa Command, and Brig. Gen. Moussa Salaou Barmou, the junta’s protection chief, Africa Command officers mentioned.
For now, that leaves Air Base 201, which as soon as served as a broader launchpad for monitoring actions of armed teams in north, west and even Central Africa, in limbo.
The American army remains to be flying unarmed drone surveillance missions to guard its troops posted in Niamey and Agadez. And below “an obligation to warn” obligation, they cross alongside any severe threats they detect to the Nigeriens.
U.S. diplomats have signaled that they wish to mend relations with the junta and resume safety operations at Air Base 201, however how they will accomplish that’s nonetheless unclear.
The brand new U.S. ambassador to Niger, Kathleen FitzGibbon, one in every of Washington’s prime Africa specialists, not too long ago offered her credentials to the Nigerien authorities. Throughout a visit to Niger final month — the second because the coup — the State Division’s senior Africa coverage official, Molly Phee, mentioned the US supposed to renew safety and growth cooperation, at the same time as she referred to as for a swift transition to civilian rule and the discharge of Mr. Bazoum, the ousted president.
However Mr. Bazoum stays below home arrest within the presidential palace in Niamey along with his spouse and son, lower off from the remainder of the world besides for infrequent visits from a health care provider. In concept, the junta might announce a timeline for a transition to civilian rule for the US to renew some help, however just for the transition, not for safety functions. The generals in energy, nonetheless, have to this point refused to launch Mr. Bazoum or to announce a timeline.
Nonetheless, some European international locations say they’re prepared to maneuver on, with or with out Mr. Bazoum. In conferences final month with Nigerien officers in Niamey, the German protection minister vowed to renew cooperation in 2024. Different international locations, like Italy and Spain, are additionally keen to interact with the junta — shifting away from France, more and more remoted in its uncompromising stance towards the nation’s army leaders.
For now, although, a decade of Western efforts to strengthen governance in Niger have been suspended indefinitely, diplomats and analysts say, and lots of doubt whether or not the breach might be repaired. “Finish of a love story,” one European safety official mentioned on the situation of anonymity to talk brazenly of developments in Niger.
But, Ms. Bernard, the previous State Division adviser, mentioned the equation was a little bit completely different for the US due to U.S. Air Base 201.
“Within the coastal international locations, they must begin from scratch,” she mentioned, referring to the latest reviews that the US was contemplating constructing new bases there, “whereas the bottom in Agadez was the largest funding in U.S. army historical past. I don’t see us shifting away from it.”
