Dhaka, Bangladesh — Hours after Bangladesh’s ruling Awami League was declared the landslide winner in Sunday’s election, which the opposition had boycotted, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina hosted a queue of international diplomats, every coming to congratulate her.
The envoys of India, the Philippines, Singapore and different nations had been there. Additionally visiting the prime minister had been the ambassadors of Russia and China.
In Washington and London, in the meantime, the governments of the UK and america criticised the election as illegitimate. US State Division spokesperson Matthew Miller, in a press release, mentioned that Washington believed the voting course of was “not free and truthful, and we remorse that not all events participated”. The UK criticised what it described as “acts of intimidation and violence” in the course of the election.
Bangladesh’s response? “We’re not bothered,” international minister AK Abdul Momen mentioned on Tuesday, when requested in regards to the feedback from the US and the UK.
That distinction between the West’s condemnation and the welcoming embrace of China and Russia is a window into probably dramatic international coverage penalties of Hasina’s return to energy, say political analysts and economists. For the West, Hasina’s rising ties with China and Russia, on prime of Bangladesh’s rejection of its considerations over the election, may poison ties with Dhaka. However that in flip may find yourself pushing Dhaka even nearer to Beijing and Moscow.
Dhaka-based political analyst Zahed Ur Rahman mentioned he believes there’s a chance of the US imposing visa restrictions and focused sanctions towards people who performed key roles within the conduct of the election, which impartial displays have criticised for violence and intimidation towards the ruling social gathering’s political opponents. In August, the US had declared a primary set of constraints on visas for some Bangladeshi officers.
However doing so, he mentioned, may jeopardise US plans to rope Bangladesh into its technique to steadiness the rise of China, particularly with the deepening financial ties between Dhaka and Beijing. China has been Bangladesh’s prime buying and selling companion for greater than a decade – a interval throughout which Hasina has dominated uninterrupted.
“The brand new authorities will discover it very difficult to work deeply with the US’s Indo-Pacific technique that truly is a coverage to comprise China,” Rahman mentioned.
Russia, in the meantime, has supported Bangladesh in opening the nation’s first nuclear energy plant. Dhaka obtained the primary provide of uranium from Moscow in October. Russia can be a significant provider of three important commodities – gasoline, meals grains and fertilisers – to Bangladesh at comparatively inexpensive costs. “If the West led by the US goes very coercive with the brand new authorities, then Bangladesh ties with Russia will develop quick,” Rahman mentioned.
That geopolitical calculus poses challenges for the West, mentioned specialists. Will probably be tough for the US and its allies to go about enterprise as normal with Bangladesh. However it’s unclear how far they could go in attempting to harm Hasina’s authorities.
The West “will face a critical dilemma,” mentioned Ali Riaz, professor and political scientist at Illinois State College.
But, Bangladesh, too, faces powerful selections.
The nation’s attire business, which employs 4 million employees, clocked exports price $47bn in 2023 – 84 % of the nation’s whole exports. The US is the one largest export vacation spot for Bangladeshi clothes.
Nevertheless, just lately, eight US Congress members wrote to the American Attire and Footwear Affiliation to stress Dhaka on truthful wages and labour rights in Bangladesh. A number of employees have been killed in clashes with safety forces throughout road protests in search of a elevate in minimal wages. Bangladesh’s embassy in Washington has cautioned its authorities in Dhaka that the nation’s ready-made clothes sector may change into a goal of Western measures.
It’s a priority that economist Mustafizur Rahman shares. “If the US and the EU take any punitive measure within the type of extra tariff or sanctions, then there’ll in fact be an adversarial influence,” Rahman, a distinguished fellow on the Dhaka-based Centre for Coverage Dialogue, advised Al Jazeera. Bangladesh’s dependence on garment exports makes it significantly weak to any such concentrating on, he mentioned.
And any ensuing financial turmoil would solely push Bangladesh even additional in the direction of China. “It’s not as a result of the Western international locations could both put extra stress or recalibrate its coverage, however as a result of the continued financial disaster would require deep-pocket help and there can be rising ideological affinity between these two international locations’ management,” mentioned Riaz at Illinois State College.
In Dhaka, Awami League spokesperson Mahbubul Alam Hanif insisted that Sunday’s election wouldn’t have an effect on the federal government’s relations with the West.
“Now we have improvement companions they usually usually give ideas, together with to strengthen democracy, however I don’t assume Sunday’s election impacts US-Bangladesh ties,” Hanif mentioned.
How the re-elected Awami League authorities handles politics post-election may additionally decide the stress on the US and its allies to behave towards Bangladesh.
Since mid-August final yr, greater than 27,200 members of the principle opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Celebration have been imprisoned and no less than 104,000 have been sued on completely different expenses, based on BNP figures. No less than 27 BNP males even have been killed in political violence since October.
With a supermajority in parliament – the Awami League gained 222 of 300 seats, and lots of the greater than 60 independents who gained are former members of the ruling social gathering who had been allegedly requested to contest to present a veneer of a combat – opposition leaders count on the federal government to focus on them much more.
BNP chief Kayser Kamal mentioned the “illegitimate” authorities would intensify its crackdown on opponents to divert consideration from the “sham” election.
Riaz agreed. “Bangladesh is changing into a de facto one-party state,” he mentioned. The federal government, he mentioned, would “undertake extra repressive measures, attempt to decimate any sort of opposition by authorized and extra-legal measures”.
