Australia desires to change into a renewable power superpower. Can it?

Hidden amongst thick bushland within the outer suburbs of southern Sydney sits an expansive facility housing a technological breakthrough.

It’s right here that Australian firm SunDrive Photo voltaic makes its “particular sauce”: a brand new – prime secret – formulation that it says has solved “a really excessive worth downside”.

Its huge innovation? Discovering a strategy to substitute the silver utilized in photo voltaic cells with copper, which was beforehand thought not possible.

“Silver is dear, scarce and environmentally disastrous, and it limits how a lot photo voltaic could be rolled out around the globe,” explains chief business officer Maia Schweizer.

“Copper can be extremely in demand, but it surely’s 1,000 occasions extra plentiful, and 100 occasions decrease price.”

The beginning-up is among the beneficiaries of the federal government’s Future Made in Australia plan – a collection of insurance policies that purpose to show the nation right into a “renewable power superpower” by investing in homegrown inexperienced industries.

However some specialists query whether or not the $A22.7bn ($15bn; £11.8bn) bundle, which includes tax incentives, loans, and kick-starter grants – is sufficient to meet these lofty ambitions.

And local weather scientists say that if Australia desires to be a serious participant within the internet zero transition, it must cease peddling fossil fuels.

Australia’s financial system has lengthy been powered by its pure sources, equivalent to coal, fuel and iron ore.

However its crucial minerals – lots of which underpin essential low emissions applied sciences – are exported uncooked, and refined overseas, predominantly by China.

It’s a dig-and-ship mannequin of commerce that has earned Australia a fame because the world’s quarry, and seen it lose out on a big chunk of change additional up the provision chain.

Lithium – which is used within the batteries that retailer renewable power and energy electrical autos – is one instance.

Regardless of being accountable for greater than half of the world’s provide, Australia captures simply 0.5% of the worldwide $57bn lithium battery market, in line with the nation’s nationwide science company.

The Future Made in Australia coverage – which was formally introduced in April – seeks to alter that, by providing tax breaks and loans to firms looking for to course of crucial minerals at residence.

Doing so, the federal government argues, is a nationwide safety precedence, as international locations study their commerce dependence on Beijing, and look to insulate themselves towards provide chain shocks.

“This isn’t old style protectionism or isolationism – it’s the new competitors,” Prime Minister Anthony Albanese mentioned, when asserting the plan.

“We have to purpose excessive, be daring, and construct huge, to match the dimensions of the chance in entrance of us.”

Queensland-based Alpha HPA is among the firms the federal government has tapped to execute its imaginative and prescient.

Like SunDrive, it views itself as a disruptor, because of its skill to create ultra-high purity aluminium merchandise – utilized in issues like semiconductors and iPhones – with a decrease carbon footprint than abroad opponents.

Due to a A$400m federal mortgage, it’s constructing one of many world’s largest alumina refineries close to the coastal metropolis of Gladstone, which it says will create a whole lot of native jobs.

It’s an enormous supply of satisfaction, given that there’s nonetheless scepticism over whether or not Australia could make issues, after a long time of outsourcing its manufacturing to China, Alpha HPA’s chief working officer Rob Williamson says.

“Anyone that places ahead the case that we do not have individuals on this nation to do [this work] is simply not making an attempt,” he provides.

SunDrive is on the same journey.

With out authorities help, Ms Schweizer says, the corporate may need moved offshore.

As a substitute, it is trying to remodel one of many nation’s oldest coal energy stations into an enormous photo voltaic panel manufacturing hub.

At the moment, one in three Australian households have photo voltaic panels, the very best fee on the planet, and but just one% are made regionally – with China accountable for greater than 80% of world manufacturing.

“Each single mineral that it’s good to make a photo voltaic panel, we have one of many prime three reserves on the planet,” Ms Schweizer explains.

“Now there’s the opportunity of the end-to-end worth chain coming onshore in Australia for the primary time, which is tremendous, tremendous thrilling.”

The Made in Australia pledge has received the help of the nation’s greatest renewable power trade commerce our bodies, who say the investments could possibly be “recreation altering”.

“It’s a giant alternative for us to be an exporter of local weather options to the world as an alternative of local weather issues,” John Grimes, who heads the Good Power Council, says.

However some local weather specialists warn it’s being “severely undermined” by the federal government’s latest choice to champion fuel till 2050 and past regardless of international calls to quickly section out fossil fuels.

“We’re sending a extremely combined message to buyers,” says Polly Hemming, the director of the Australia Institute’s local weather and power programme.

“This authorities has continued to approve new fuel and coal initiatives – it is flown to Japan, India, Korea, and Vietnam to safe long-term markets for fuel and coal.

“If we actually needed to be a inexperienced power superpower, we wouldn’t be relentlessly pursuing prospects for our fossil fuels,” she says.

One of many nation’s main local weather scientists agrees.

“There’s a very deep contradiction on the coronary heart of the 2 insurance policies,” says Prof Invoice Hare, chief govt of Local weather Analytics and writer of quite a few UN local weather change experiences.

“The Future Made in Australia [plan] is taking part in second fiddle to the federal government’s fuel technique.”

To grasp how, Ms Hemming says it’s good to “comply with the cash”.

In keeping with an evaluation from her thinktank, final yr alone, state and federal governments spent A$14.5bn subsidising fossil gas use throughout Australia, and that sum is simply anticipated to balloon, in line with funds estimates.

In contrast, she says the A$13.7bn put aside to course of crucial minerals and incubate Australia’s nascent inexperienced hydrogen trade “isn’t actual cash”.

That’s as a result of it can take the type of tax breaks over the course of a decade, which can solely be cashed in on manufacturing ranging from 2027 – a mannequin which policymakers say will guarantee taxpayers’ cash just isn’t wasted.

However all of the inexperienced hydrogen initiatives – lots of that are being led by the nation’s largest mining and power firms – are but to be constructed. And the incentives could possibly be scrapped earlier than they get off the bottom if there’s a change in authorities.

“It’s like me having a wholesome consuming and junk meals coverage working on the identical time in my residence and telling my youngsters, ‘You possibly can have $10 per week now in the event you maintain consuming junk meals’,” says Ms Hemming.

“Or, ‘I am going to provide you with $2 in 2027 in the event you change to broccoli’. What do you assume they will prioritise?”

Some power specialists have additionally forged doubt over the enterprise rationale behind inexperienced hydrogen – given the trade remains to be in its infancy and riddled with unknowns.

Others fear it might divert funding away from the renewable energy sources which have already confirmed their price, leading to delayed local weather motion.

However Mr Grimes says that inexperienced hydrogen will play a vital function in “stripping emissions” out of Australia’s carbon-intensive mining sector – as firms search for low cost inexperienced sources of gas to proceed powering their operations.

And larger image, he argues that the federal government’s new inexperienced investments must be assessed as “a milestone first step” relatively than an finish level.

“The federal government is aware of that if it doesn’t pivot past its exports of coal, fuel and iron ore quickly, Australia dangers turning into the Kodak financial system of the longer term: a giant deal someday and utterly irrelevant the following.”

Australia isn’t the one nation trying to place itself because the engine room of the brand new inexperienced financial system.

Dozens of countries are placing ahead formidable proposals, such because the European Union’s Inexperienced Deal or America’s gargantuan Inflation Discount Act.

Globally, policymakers have already invested over A$2tn in clear power initiatives since 2020, in line with the Worldwide Power Company.

However Australia has some compelling pure benefits, equivalent to enviable wind and photo voltaic capabilities, shops of crucial minerals and uncommon earths, and a robust mining infrastructure community that may be repurposed.

If used appropriately, all of the specialists the BBC spoke with agreed it has each likelihood of securing its place as a crucial inexperienced buying and selling associate amongst allies.

Getting there although, they are saying, would require even larger funding – significantly in analysis and growth, which is at the moment at 30-year lows.

They usually’ve warned that the federal government can’t afford to pull its toes – some extent which Mr Albanese himself has addressed head on.

“We’ve to get cracking. We’ve limitless potential, however we would not have limitless time.

“If we don’t seize this second, it can go. If we don’t take this opportunity, we received’t get one other. If we don’t act to form the longer term, the longer term will form us.”