9 drivers have already received a minimum of as soon as in 2024, successfully solidifying their playoff spots barring the extraordinarily unlikely occasion of there being greater than 16 winners by the conclusion of the common season. That leaves seven spots up for grabs, with 10 drivers holding a practical probability of incomes certainly one of them through factors, and right here is the place all of them stand.
Protected: Martin Truex Jr. (+128)
Truex is the one winless driver in 2024 who you may pencil in as a digital lock to make the playoffs. His 128-point cushion over seventeenth place is subsequent to insurmountable, and he has executed every thing however win a race this season with a number of extra tracks developing on the schedule which must be prime alternatives for victories.
Truex is as soon as once more going through questions over the uncertainty of his future past this season, however ought to he resolve to name it a profession after 2024, he’ll be doing so with an opportunity to race for a title.
In all probability secure, however no ensures: Ty Gibbs (+86), Ross Chastain (+73), Ryan Blaney (+64)
Three drivers qualify for the “most likely secure” tier simply behind Truex, the primary being his second-year teammate Ty Gibbs, who has additionally flirted with victory a number of occasions this season. It might take an unlikely string of occasions for both Gibbs or Ross Chastain — each of whom have snug margins above the bubble — to drop out of the playoffs, at present sitting at +86 and +73 respectively.
In the meantime, the third driver on this tier, Ryan Blaney, makes it on account of the truth that his potential to win on a given week is far larger than most different bubble drivers. Blaney is the defending collection champion however has been wildly unfortunate along with his leads to 2024, which is certain to vary in some unspecified time in the future. It might be a shock if he does not qualify for the playoffs.
Looking out: Alex Bowman (+65), Chris Buescher (+32), Bubba Wallace (+8)
These three drivers are at present within the playoffs, however that might all change with only one or two fallacious turns of occasions. Bowman is definitely (by a single level) forward of Blaney within the standings, however a lot of his 2024 efficiency has been merely avoiding unhealthy finishes whereas not often contending for wins, and nobody can disguise from the luck regression monster ceaselessly.
The opposite two drivers right here — Buescher and Wallace are in positions the place all it can take is one winner from outdoors the present playoff image and so they’re clinging to their playoff lives. Buescher may have a number of wins already in 2024 with higher
luck, however sadly for him, near-wins do not do you any good.
Outdoors trying in: Kyle Busch (-8), Joey Logano (-16), Chase Briscoe (-27)
Three drivers at present outdoors the playoffs have real looking probabilities to earn their manner again in on factors, and two of them are multi-time former champions in Busch and Logano. It has been a battle of a marketing campaign for each of them, however we all know the power to win is there (Logano did win the non-points All-Star Race at North Wilkesboro Speedway) and so they cannot be counted out till it is all mentioned and executed.
Briscoe has the hardest street, and can most likely must win given how aggressive the bubble is that this season. Nevertheless, if he can string some constant finishes collectively whereas avoiding some other winners from behind him in factors, he could have a shot.
Must win: all people else
From Twentieth-place Michael McDowell (-93) on down, each remaining driver is in official must-win territory. There can be alternatives for shock winners, most notably the twenty fifth race of the season at Daytona, which is all the time a wild card. The road circuit at Chicago on July 7 might be one other one to circle on the calendar if it is wherever close to as chaotic as final yr, however as confirmed by Austin Cindric at Gateway a number of weeks in the past, you by no means know when somebody may throw an sudden wrench into the playoff race.
