WHAT UKRAINE SHOULD DEMAND
Whereas US negotiators are in for a tricky struggle, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy faces a seemingly unimaginable problem. However Ukraine can’t be saved completely out of any negotiations.
Zelenskyy has one small bargaining chip within the type of a comparatively tiny chunk of Russian land he holds, and a bigger one in his outmanned however fearsome preventing power. Plus, he nonetheless has robust European backing.
For Zelenskyy and his supporters, there can be three essential parts in any “least worst” plan.
The primary can be no additional territorial concessions. Whereas shedding each Crimea and the 4 provinces of Donbas is unhealthy sufficient, he should draw a line in opposition to any additional concessions – for instance, giving up Kharkiv, the nation’s second largest metropolis, nestled on the Ukrainian-Russian border.
A second absolute is a few credible safety assure that stops Putin from merely rearming and renewing his unlawful invasion in a couple of years. Workforce Trump dominated out US boots on the bottom earlier than negotiations even began, and Putin would by no means go for direct NATO intervention.
However European troops may very well be stationed in Ukraine, successfully performing as a tripwire. France, the UK, the Baltic states and presumably Poland have indicated potential willingness.
One other, much less doubtless, safety assure is likely to be that if Putin reinvaded, NATO would instantly admit Ukraine.
Lastly, the Ukrainians want provision for continued navy help from the US and Europe. The mixed defence funds of the NATO nations is almost US$1.5 trillion. There may be loads of capability to supply Ukraine with extra fighter plane, surface-to-surface missiles, high-tech unmanned {hardware} and cyber and intelligence assist.
