Trump, however, would current rather more threat vis-a-vis his China coverage. His tariff threats would wreak havoc on world commerce and provide chains if carried out. He can also go even additional, contemplating one in all his former Cupboard members referred to as for an entire decoupling from China. The buying and selling system would ultimately get better, however not earlier than struggling extended turbulence.
Regardless of this, a second Trump administration could counterintuitively make inroads with Southeast Asian governments.
His transactional strategy could discover extra assist in Southeast Asia, the place governments choose to speak about deliverables resembling funding offers as an alternative of human rights and values. He can also discover frequent floor and private rapport with regional leaders resembling Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto, given his affinity with strongmen who can “get issues completed” no matter typical restraints. Singapore leaders might need to vary tack, planning extra one-on-one discussions between heads of presidency to safe commitments from the US.
TAKEAWAYS FOR SINGAPORE
Neither state of affairs is risk-free. Removed from being a cliche, Singapore ought to put together for a bumpy highway forward, no matter who wins.
Harris could present the multilateral management that Singapore desires on points resembling local weather change however fail to resuscitate US coverage on Southeast Asia. Trump would possibly make inroads with Southeast Asian leaders however trigger chaos along with his commerce and China insurance policies. Whereas constructing on the identical strategic understandings, the precise form of those insurance policies will rely on the advisers the victorious candidate make use of.
