Information and social media feeds inundate us with dramatic scenes of immigration policing. Viral movies of immigrant moms picked up on sidewalks close to their houses, information accounts of ICE brokers displaying up in Los Angeles colleges and social media posts of U.S. residents detained by authorities brokers, all create a daunting spectacle. President Trump fuels the worry by trolling immigrant communities with sinister Valentine playing cards, dangling self-deportation incentives and implementing a chaotic enforcement technique that ignores makes an attempt at judicial oversight. Amid all this, many look to state and native leaders for calm, reassurance and assist.
In California, there stays a easy and constant response. Regardless of who, when, the place or the way you ask, a commanding majority of registered voters within the Golden State assist a path to citizenship for these within the state with out correct paperwork. In different phrases, throughout the partisan aisle, and throughout all types of various teams and locations, most voters see a path to citizenship as a much-needed coverage repair, even now.
In August of 2024, a couple of months earlier than the presidential election, the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Research Ballot requested greater than 4,000 voters throughout the state whether or not they would assist or oppose a “path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants who come ahead, are updated on their taxes, and cross a background examine.”
At the moment, the Harris and Trump campaigns have been in full swing. Harris’ group had already held a couple of information conferences on the border, insinuating that elevated border safety could be high of thoughts in her administration. In the meantime, Trump continued his regular discourse about immigrants, as soon as infamously contending that immigrants have been “poisoning the blood of our nation.” It was troublesome to see who, if anybody, felt sympathy towards group members who’d entered the nation with out authorization or overstayed a visa, even if a lot of them had raised new generations of Americans and contributed to public coffers and native job markets.
However even again in August, 80% of California registered voters who answered the ballot supported a path to citizenship. This included near 60% of polled Republicans, 75% of independents and even 56% of those that meant to vote for Trump. It additionally included 75% of those that earned a highschool diploma or much less, 80% of those that earned a school diploma or extra, 80% of ladies, 78% of males, 75% of householders and 84% of these beneath 40. Among the many strongest supporters have been Democrats, with 91% assist, in addition to middle- and high-income earners, and those that lived within the Bay Space. Throughout most classes, a commanding majority of California voters expressed assist for a pathway to citizenship.
However that was then, earlier than the onslaught. Earlier than the viral movies, the renditions to El Salvador, the provide of money to self-deport. One might argue that in these before-times, maybe voters have been by some means extra sympathetic to immigrants as a result of they have been distracted by different points, like the worth of eggs and groceries or broader inflation points. And maybe some won’t have believed that Trump would truly comply with via on his assaults on immigrant communities.
So in early Might the Berkeley IGS Ballot requested survey respondents once more about their assist for a path to citizenship. This time we polled greater than 6,000 registered California voters and we inserted a small survey experiment. We have been interested by whether or not respondents’ assist in August had been so robust as a result of the query they have been requested included language a couple of “background examine,” an concept that may have primed them to consider “good” and “dangerous” immigrants and should have inadvertently linked unauthorized standing to crime. So for half of all respondents in Might, we requested the identical query once more, however for the second half of respondents, we omitted this language, merely asking if they might assist or oppose a “path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants who’re working or going to high school and are updated on their taxes.”
Our survey discovered no statistically important variations between the 2 teams. The overwhelming majority of California voters suppose a path to citizenship is solely the best factor to do, background examine or not.
Furthermore, we discovered just about no variations from August to Might. Eighty p.c of registered voters this month, together with near 60% of Republicans, continued to assist a path to citizenship. Someplace between 70% and 85% of each demographic, together with respondents beneath 40, these over 65, these of various racial teams, these in unions, people who hire their houses, people who personal their houses, males, girls, these within the Central Valley, Los Angeles County, the Inland Empire and even these on the far North Coast all expressed assist for a path to citizenship. The consistency is resounding.
Should you’re making an attempt to make sense of the bombast and the whirlwind of govt and legislation enforcement actions directed at immigrants, keep in mind the one factor that unites a commanding majority of California voters, nearly with out regard to who we’re and the place we stay, an understanding that good coverage is sensible coverage: Undocumented group members deserve reduction.
State and native leaders don’t design federal immigration coverage, however they need to keep in mind this ballot information as they make selections about tips on how to assist us all. If it have been put to a vote, an amazing majority of Californians would assist immigration reform, not mass deportation.
G. Cristina Mora and Nicholas Vargas are professors at UC Berkeley affiliated with the Institute of Governmental Research, the place Mora serves as co-director.
