Because the 22 groups that aren’t at the moment targeted on capturing the 2024 World Sequence title gear up for the approaching offseason, many will certainly be maintaining a tally of the variety of high-profile free agent starters set to hit the market this winter with Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, Max Fried and Jack Flaherty among the many consensus prime arms. It’s a category that’s not completely dissimilar from final winter’s group of prime arms, which was headlined by a quartet of Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Aaron Nola and Jordan Montgomery.
These prime free agent arms garnered a mixed assure of greater than $600M final winter, and the outcomes have been usually commensurate with that manufacturing. Whereas Montgomery struggled badly with the Diamondbacks, Nola put up a reasonably typical season by his requirements with the Phillies this 12 months (albeit with barely diminished peripherals) and each Snell and Yamamoto fought by means of damage woes to dominate as anticipated when wholesome. That stated, a starter who was checked out extra as a mid-rotation sort of arm final winter stunned the baseball world by rising with numbers corresponding to these on the very prime of the category.
That hurler was Cubs lefty Shota Imanaga, who was usually checked out as a tier under the aforementioned group alongside Eduardo Rodriguez, Lucas Giolito and Sonny Grey. Regardless of rumors that Imanaga’s market may prime $100M when all was stated and finished, the southpaw lingered in free company into the brand new 12 months earlier than ultimately signing with Chicago on a deal that fell far under expectations. Whereas the deal maxes out at 5 years and $80M, only a stone’s throw away from MLBTR’s prediction of $85M over 5 years, the deal got here with a fancy construction that solely assured Imanaga $53M, or roughly two thirds of that $80M complete determine.
It’s not laborious to see why groups have been seemingly bearish on Imanaga. In any case, the 30-year-old lefty was coming over from Japan’s Nippon Skilled Baseball at an age that’s roughly according to a typical MLB free agent somewhat than the youthful age many NPB gamers resembling Yamamoto and teammate Seiya Suzuki make their technique to the majors at. Yamamoto was advertising his age-25 season final 12 months, whereas Suzuki marketed his age-27 season over the 2021-22 offseason. With lots of Imanaga’s prime years already behind him, he maintained all the danger of offering a hefty sum to a participant with no MLB expertise with out a lot of the perceived upside that might include signing a participant of their mid-20s.
Even except for Imanaga’s age, it’s additionally price noting that the lefty’s profile as a pitcher drew important questions. The southpaw doesn’t throw particularly laborious, having averaged simply 91.9mph on his heater this 12 months, and a few scouting reviews (together with one from Brandon Tew of Sports activities Data Options) raised questions on his capacity to handle dwelling runs on the huge league degree on account of his fly ball-oriented profile. Whereas Imanaga’s deep pitch combine and high-end stuff metrics supplied motive for optimism relating to his future within the huge leagues, the lefty however entered his first MLB season with loads of questions surrounding him.
Happily for each Imanaga and the Cubs, he answered these questions in resounding trend with a wonderful rookie marketing campaign. General, the lefty posted a 2.91 ERA (37% higher than league common by ERA+) with a powerful 25.1% strikeout fee that was Sixteenth-best amongst certified starters this 12 months. He paired that strikeout stuff with wonderful management, strolling simply 4% of opponents confronted this 12 months. That’s a determine topped by solely George Kirby, Miles Mikolas and Zach Eflin amongst all huge leaguers this 12 months and leaves him with a implausible 21% Ok-BB that leaves him sandwiched between ace righties Zack Wheeler and Dylan Stop on the NL leaderboard.
That being stated, not every thing about Imanaga’s 2024 efficiency was dominant. His 3.72 FIP is somewhat pedestrian (simply 6% higher than league common by FIP-) and extra superior metrics resembling xERA and SIERA, whereas extra bullish than FIP on his efficiency, nonetheless see him as extra of a 3.50 ERA pitcher than the two.91 determine he really posted this 12 months. The principle wrongdoer for that discrepancy between outcomes and metrics is the exact same weak spot that drew some skepticism final winter: his proclivity for giving up homers. Imanaga surrendered 27 dwelling runs this 12 months, tied with Twins righty Bailey Ober for ninth-most amongst all certified starters in 2024.
Whereas that’s actually not a totally untenable determine, it could actually be honest to marvel if Imanaga is due for some regression heading into subsequent season. Of the eight pitchers who surrendered extra homers than Imanaga this 12 months, none got here near his sterling ERA with solely Nola (3.57) and Jose Berrios (3.60) posting an determine that was even inside a full run of Imanaga’s 2.91 mark. Between his hefty dwelling run fee and an above-average 80.2% strand fee this 12 months, it could hardly be a shock if the emergent ace put up numbers nearer to the mid-rotation ceiling he was thought to have this time final 12 months come 2025.
In fact, even a step again that aligns Imanaga’s efficiency extra carefully together with his superior metrics would depart the Cubs with a wonderful No. 2 starter behind ace Justin Steele whom they need to haven’t any considerations about beginning in a hypothetical playoff collection. Barring dramatic regression on the a part of Imanaga subsequent 12 months, it appears very possible that the Cubs will assure the lefty the total $80M worth of his contract somewhat than danger him opting out following the 2025 marketing campaign, which he would have the ability to do if the Cubs decline to ensure the total contract.
