Daring predictions for the remainder of the 2023-24 NBA season

Steph Curry famously turned the first-ever unanimous MVP again in 2015-16. Nikola Jokic will turn into the second this season. Jokic has lots working in his favor. Most significantly, he is most likely going to be a top-20 participant of all-time (perhaps even higher), he is in the course of his prime, and he is having arguably his finest season (27.5 PPG, 13.1 RPG, 8.9 APG with 57.9 discipline objective proportion). On this tempo, he would additionally reset his personal Participant Effectivity Score document (32.85) with a PER of 33.79. Lastly, full transparency voting for NBA awards has led to extra groupthink, which led to him not successful the MVP final season, however may also result in those self same voters coming again to Jokic to keep away from the identical embarrassment as final postseason.

Leaps by nice younger groups often make the leap a bit prior to everyone seems to be anticipating. Suppose the 1994-95 Orlando Magic, or the 2011-12 OKC Thunder, or 2014-15 Golden State Warriors. Properly, be prepared for the 2023-24 OKC Thunder to make an identical leap this 12 months. And prepare for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to get some severe MVP consideration as the perfect participant on presumably the perfect crew within the Western Convention (they’re presently in second with an 11-4 document. SGA has the numbers (30.4 PPG, 6.3 APG, 6.1 RPG, 2.4 SPG with 54-36-93 taking pictures splits) and the killer late-game swagger that’s straightforward to understand. 

This Rookie of the Yr jogs my memory of the LeBron James-Carmelo Anthony race from 2003-04. Each had been destined to be nice – LeBron was a greater total participant and prospect, however on a nasty crew; Melo was a extremely good scorer on a playoff crew. LeBron finally received the award, and rightly so, nevertheless it was an amazing race. Quick ahead to this season, Victor Wembanyama is in LeBron James’ scenario and Chet Holmgren is in Carmelo Anthony’s scenario (albeit even higher). This time round, nevertheless, the higher prospect goes to come back in second. Wemby has (18.8 PPG, 9.5 RPG, 2.5 APG, 2.6 BPG and 1 SPG on 43-28-81 taking pictures) and can end with extra spectacular uncooked numbers, however Chet could have much better effectivity on related sufficient numbers (17.1 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 2.5 APG, 2.3 BPG and 0.9 SPG with 56-43-88 taking pictures splits by 15 video games), plus be a key contributor for a contender. 

The Celtics presently have the NBA’s finest document (13-4) and internet score (plus-8.5). Their beginning 5 – Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Kristaps Porzingis, Derrick White and Jrue Vacation – is the perfect within the NBA and the core gamers in that lineup are of their respective primes. And the stats again up the truth that they’re an elite unit (plus 27.7 factors per 100 possessions). These are all indicators that Boston will win 60-plus video games and end with the perfect common season document within the NBA. 

The Pacers have the quickest tempo within the league and can parlay that into the very best offensive score per 100 possessions in NBA historical past (present document is held by the 2022-23 Kings, which had been at 119.4 factors per 100 possessions). With the perfect look forward connector within the league, Tyrese Haliburton, surrounded by flooring spacers like Buddy Hield and Myles Turner, and athletic fast-breakers like Obi Toppin and Bruce Brown, the Pacers will simply breach the 120 factors per 100 possessions mark – actually, they’re at 122.6 factors per 100 possessions by their first 16 video games. 

118 factors per 100 possession places a crew within the top-10 all-time for offensive scores. Proper now, the Pacers (122.6), 76ers (121.5) and Hawks (119.5) are all on tempo to interrupt the present document. The Bucks are tied for the document at 119.4. After which the Mavericks (119.0), Suns (118.7) and Thunder (118.2) are all on-pace for top-10 marks. I am guessing that the Celtics (117.7) additionally find yourself above 118 factors per 100 possessions as effectively. Offense is as environment friendly as attainable, and the NBA is as offensively-talented because it has ever been.

In the event you common 26 PPG, 12 APG and submit 50-40-90 taking pictures splits, and lead your crew to the perfect offensive score in NBA historical past, which is what Tyrese Haliburton is doing proper now, you then should make First-Group All-NBA. Fairly easy. He’ll be part of Nikola Jokic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Joel Embiid, and Giannis Antetokounmpo. 

The Ant-Man is making his leap into superstardom this season, and he is doing it at a excessive degree on each ends of the court docket. On offense, he is averaging profession highs in PPG (26.2), RPG (5.9), APG (5.0) and all taking pictures splits (46-38-86). If that weren’t sufficient, he is additionally one of many defensive catalysts for the crew with the perfect defensive score within the league, and the highest document within the Western Convention. 

The Warriors are a bottom-seven crew within the NBA if Steph Curry is out (and doubtless league-average as presently constructed when he does play), so he higher play at the very least 70 video games – one thing he hardly ever has been capable of do – or else Golden State is kaput. And the Clippers are going to be in hassle if any of their three stars (Kawhi Leonard, Paul George and James Harden) miss important parts of the season – which Kawhi and PG have been liable to do). 

After a stellar 2022-23 season –  one by which they’d the perfect defensive score and second-best internet score within the NBA – the Cavaliers have stumbled out of the gates this season and are presently sitting at 10-9 (eighth within the East) with the Twelfth-best defensive score and the twentieth finest internet score. They’ve all the items on paper, however the crew hasn’t meshed such as you’d assume. Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland are glorious, however they appear to be higher when the opposite does not play. Evan Mobley has plateaued a bit. Jarrett Allen continues to be struggling after the ugly playoff efficiency final season. Max Strus and Caris LeVert have been nice, however neither strikes the needle sufficient to get this crew out of its funk.

How ironic wouldn’t it be if the 76ers lastly made it previous the second spherical of the playoffs after the James Harden fiasco this offseason? Tyrese Maxey will win the NBA’s Most Improved Participant Award. Joel Embiid win the scoring title for the third straight season whereas doing his finest Nikola Jokic impression by averaging practically seven APG. And Daryl Morey will use the property acquired from the Harden commerce to land one other influence wing like Alex Caruso or Jerami Grant. It’s going to culminate within the crew upsetting the pesky Miami Warmth, who could have as soon as once more taken out the Bucks on their approach to an inconceivable fourth Convention Finals previously 5 seasons, on their approach to the championship the place they are going to sq. off in opposition to… 

Hey, these are daring predictions, keep in mind. Clearly, the Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets are the clear favorites within the Western Convention as long as the perfect participant in basketball is wholesome. And groups just like the T’Wolves, Thunder and Suns all have been rather more spectacular than the Lakers up to now. However…on this daring prediction actuality, I am envisioning an identical elite defensive effort by Anthony Davis and the Lakers down the stretch, and a totally wholesome LeBron James (recall, he was coping with a foot harm all postseason that robbed him of any explosiveness). As well as, Rob Pelinka makes the appropriate deal – unclear what that’s in the intervening time as a result of the Lakers are so injury-riddled, however Kyrie Irving, Jerami Grant, Alex Caruso and Malcolm Brogdon would all be superb suits – and LA makes a run to the title. Plenty of ifs, nevertheless it’s not not possible!

Joel Embiid completely owns Anthony Davis, however Playoff AD is the perfect defensive participant in basketball (although he nonetheless leaves lots to be desired on the offensive finish each different sport), so this collection will come down as to whether LeBron can rev the engine sufficient to copy the participant he was within the Bubble Finals. I consider he nonetheless can – if LeBron James will get to a different Finals, he ain’t dropping. He’ll run your entire tank empty, after which some. In truth, he’ll go so exhausting that he’ll announce his retirement after the clinching sport (and un-retire in the summertime proper earlier than the NBA Draft), giving the Lakers their second title within the LeBron-AD period…that’s…

Here is the contingency…if the Thunder, who’ve 37(!!!) first-round picks between now and 2030, make an enormous transfer on the deadline – say they commerce for Mikal Bridges or Myles Turner and Buddy Hield – then they’ll shock the world and win the title. If any group understands the brevity of a championship window, it is the Thunder, given what occurred again in 2012. If I had been Sam Presti, I might be taking a look at SGA taking part in like an MVP candidate, Chet Holmgren taking part in like a future star, Jalen Williams and the remainder of the solid all trying nice, and I might be pushing the chips now.

The Bulls are a depressing practice wreck of a crew this season. They haven’t any likelihood of creating the playoffs and must be placing up a For Sale check in entrance of each participant on their roster. Critically, they do not have a single participant to construct round. Probably the most impactful participant on their crew is now not DeMar DeRozan or Zach LaVine, it is Alex Caruso, who is without doubt one of the finest defenders within the league and an amazing connector on offense. He is on among the finest contracts within the league – not like DeRozan, who’s a free agent subsequent summer time, or LaVine, who’s on one of many ugliest contracts within the league – and could have a bevy of contenders lining up for his providers. Search for Caruso to price someplace within the neighborhood of two unprotected picks.

The NBA is so loaded with expertise that there are at the very least a dozen, perhaps extra, groups that may discuss themselves into making a deep run within the playoffs and, thus, will probably be consumers on the commerce deadline. Conversely, there are at the very least eight groups that already haven’t any likelihood on the playoffs and will certainly be sellers. There’ll most likely be a number of extra by February too. Which means we must always have a really energetic commerce deadline. Gamers like Alex Caruso, Malcolm Brogdon, Gordon Hayward, and Jordan Clarkson are on dangerous groups and can nearly actually be dealt. Do not be stunned if much more impactful gamers like Jerami Grant and Pascal Siakam change groups as effectively. 

Whether or not it is Donovan Mitchell, Lauri Markkanen, Brandon Ingram, Zion Williamson or another person (Kyrie Irving?), you simply get the sense that some seismic commerce is on the horizon. Mitchell appears destined for an even bigger market, and the Cavs might get a significant return in the event that they dealt him this season. Markkanen may be excited by competing for a playoff crew, which the Jazz do not undertaking to be for a number of years. And everyone knows that Pelicans’ government David Griffin will not be afraid to swing for the fences when his again is in opposition to the wall (see, David Blatt’s firing). 

As long as Kevin Durant and Devin Booker are wholesome, the Suns will simply be a contender. Nevertheless, if Durant misses his customary 25-plus video games  – one thing he is carried out in all three of his post-Achilles tear seasons – the Suns will plummet down the standings as your entire burden of carrying a crew filled with minimal contract gamers will fall upon Devin Booker (Bradley Beal has opted to WFH this season). Booker can deal with this burden, to an extent, however each Durant and Booker need to be totally wholesome for this crew to have any shot within the playoffs. Placing this a lot of a daily season burden on the 2 of them will come again to chew them.

Very similar to final 12 months’s Cavs, the Magic have stunned your entire NBA by the primary quarter of the season and presently sit at quantity two within the East with a 13-5 document. Just like the Cavs, the Magic are doing it with their protection (second within the NBA in defensive score), which has led to their having a plus-6.5 internet score per 100 possessions (Cavs completed final season at plus-5.6). The Cavs completed fourth within the East final season with 51 wins, and that looks like a risk for the Magic if they will proceed to defend like they’ve up to now. Nevertheless, within the playoffs, their youth and inexperience will present, they usually’ll have an early exit from the postseason, however loads to be exited about shifting ahead.

The Pistons are within the midst of a horrific dropping streak (16 video games in a row on the time of this slideshow), and it is about to get lots worse. They began the season 2-1, however have misplaced each sport since. Monty Williams appears to be the improper coach for this extraordinarily uncooked, extraordinarily unbalanced roster. That mentioned, I anticipate sufficient enchancment from the likes of Cade Cunningham, Jalen Duren and Ausar Thompson that this crew will finally begin taking part in semi-competitive basketball by the final quarter of the season. The Wizards (3-15), alternatively, should not have any expertise and can most likely commerce their solely first rate gamers this deadline. They’ll end with the NBA’s worst document when it is all mentioned and carried out.

Do you know that De’Aaron Fox is averaging 30.7 PPG proper now? He is solely appeared in 12 video games up to now, however that might presently put him in fourth place and only one.3 PPG behind Joel Embiid for first. Fox is clearly the Kings finest participant this season, and is the quickest participant in all of basketball, so he can get anyplace he needs on the court docket. He is lastly beginning to develop a constant three-point stroke (36.3 %), and I believe he’ll be in loads of shootouts this season, so he is my decide to steer the league in scoring.

As you’ve got most likely seen, there hasn’t been a lot point out of the Mavericks on this slideshow even supposing Luke Doncic seems spectacular by his first 17 video games (31.1 PPG, 8 RPG, 7.9 APG with 49-39-77 taking pictures splits) and has the crew out to a strong 11-6 begin. Sadly, Dallas’ protection, which is ranked twenty third, will probably be their undoing. The crew will make the playoffs, however an early exit will push Doncic to the brink and, within the wake of Mark Cuban promoting his majority stake of the crew, he’ll request a commerce and set off the craziest bidding struggle for a famous person the participant the NBA has ever seen.