COMMENT: Marty, you might be by far the best long-term forecaster ever. I labored on the ground in 2007 when the market crashed on the precise day of your ECM. Everybody known as it Armstrong’s Revenge. That was the very day of the excessive within the Shiller Actual Property Index for 2007. I do know you say the brief time period is noise, and you aren’t identified for short-term day-to-day forecasts, which you keep away from. I put my home up on the market and simply offered it based mostly in your Could third put up the place you stated, “House costs within the US are close to all-time highs. ” The realtor advised me that gross sales have began to say no, and I offered the excessive.
Superb.
Thanks
Mike
REPLY: There’s all the time a time to purchase and a time to promote. The short-term is simply noise. If the Dow or Gold rallies for 2 weeks after which declines, that doesn’t alter the long-term course till we have now reached a turning level. However folks wish to see you as a forecaster day by day, which is nonsense. The extra somebody trades, the decrease their efficiency, and the dangers improve exponentially. I’ve carried out the long-term as a result of we had been the most important institutional adviser. They don’t seem to be day merchants.
Sure, the 2007 excessive on the Shiller Index was the exact day of the Financial Confidence Mannequin. To date, all the symptoms have confirmed that we must always have a recessionary development into 2028 with this flip within the mannequin on this wave. With the prospect of battle on the horizon, folks will contract of their spending due to uncertainty.
We’ve gone via a interval of a growth, however with battle on the horizon, folks will pull again on their spending, and we’ll typically enter a recession from Could 2024 into August 2028. The shift from the Blue to the Pink states continues to be occurring. So, actual property within the blue states will fall in worth quickly. The decline will fluctuate from place to position.
Now we must always enter a BUYER’S market whereas from 2020-2024 was a SELLER’S Market.
