Produced by the Customary podcast workforce, examine again right here each week to discover a model new episode of A Week’s a Lengthy Time in Westminster.
Episode 5: Keir meets Joe hit by woes
All eyes on the president, Labour’s nice reset, and is soccer coming house?
- Labour will get off to a flying begin
- Is Biden heading for the Relaxation Wing?
- Battle for the center and soul of the Tory Occasion
- Beginner MPs at Westminster
- And….it’s coming house..how London’s making ready for England vs Spain Euro 2024 last
Episode 4: Labour landslide and London’s new political panorama
Episode three: Time’s operating out for Rishi Sunak as July 4 looms
Offended debates on either side of the Atlantic, unique interviews with Rishi Sunak and Sir Ed Davey, a calamitous ballot for the Tories, and the battle for Jewish votes in Finchley. Nicholas Cecil, Jitendra Joshi and Rachael Burford talk about the newest drama within the run-up to the final election. On this episode:
- Did the PM do sufficient in his last debate with the Labour chief?
- Simply how unhealthy was Joe Biden’s personal debate with Donald Trump?
- Ipsos polling finds 72% of voters dislike the Tories.
- Sir Keir Starmer admits remarks about Bangladesh had been ‘clumsy’
Episode two: Bets off on subsequent drama hitting Rishi Sunak
A betting scandal, Starmer struggles to shake off Corbyn’s legacy, Boris returns and Ed Davey’s newest antics. Nicholas Cecil, Jitendra Joshi and Rachael Burford talk about the newest drama within the run-up to the final election. On this episode:
- Conservatives pressured to delete ‘playing’ publish on X
- Suella Braverman’s embarrassing TikTok posts
- The most recent Ipsos survey sheds mild on London’s intentions
- Why an area Labour chief was discovered hiding in a hedge
Episode one: Three weeks to go till July 4 polling day…
- Forward of Euro 2024 kicking off, it is a sport of two halves on the marketing campaign path
- Labour, the Tories, the Lib Dems and Greens publish their manifestos
- Has Rishi Sunak recovered from his D-Day blunder?
- Sir Keir Starmer’s celebration nonetheless on the again foot over tax plans
- Or is it actually potholes and NHS ready lists voters are most involved about?
- With Night Customary political editor Nicholas Cecil, deputy political editor Jitendra Joshi and chief political correspondent Rachael Burford.
Seek for The Customary on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you stream.
Right here’s an automatic transcript for episode one:
From London, I am political editor, Nicholas Cecil.
I am chief political correspondent, Rachael Burford.
And I am deputy political editor, Jitendra Joshi.
And that is The Customary podcast’s, A Week’s a Lengthy Time in Westminster.
“We’re the celebration of Margaret Thatcher and Nigel Lawson, a celebration in contrast to Labour that believes in sound cash.
So we are going to make sure that now we have decrease welfare in order that we will ship decrease taxes.” SUNAK
Recorded from our newsroom at Westminster, it is a collection of particular episodes each Friday within the run as much as the election.
We’ll reduce by the noise and make it easier to become familiar with what’s actually happening in politics, each right here in London and throughout the nation.
Taking you thru the week’s political information, coverage gossip and scandal.
And we’ll be with you on outcomes day to unpack every part.
“I do not imagine it is honest to lift taxes on working folks after they’re already paying this a lot, notably in a value of dwelling disaster.
We won’t increase revenue tax.
We won’t increase nationwide insurance coverage.
That may be a manifesto dedication.” STARMER
So this week was a sport of two halves within the election marketing campaign, forward of England’s first sport at Euro 2024 on Sunday.
Initially of the week, it was the Tories with that manifesto, however they’re doing so badly within the polls.
It was like they had been beginning the sport 5 nil down.
The second half of the week was Labour’s manifesto.
And for Sir Keir Starmer, it is the alternative.
He is an enormous soccer fan, and he is aware of he’ll be in quantity 10 in simply three weeks time, except his celebration scores a string of spectacular personal objectives.
So to begin the present, let’s kick off with the Tories.
So on Tuesday, we had the Tory manifesto, and that was very a lot tax cuts, tax cuts, and extra tax cuts.
They proposed to chop an additional 2p off the primary charge of Nationwide Insurance coverage by 2027.
And they’re additionally proposing ditching the primary charge of Nationwide Insurance coverage for the self-employed.
There have been fairly a number of different pledges of their manifesto, for instance, constructing 1.6 million extra houses within the subsequent 5 years, stamp responsibility for first time patrons being abolished on houses as much as a price of £425,000.
They repeated their pledge to get Rwanda flights, deportation flights off the bottom, although up to now they very clearly failed to realize that.
They pledged to spice up spending on protection at 2.5% of GDP by 2030.
They are saying they’ll make £12 billion of financial savings from welfare cuts.
And so they additionally declare that they’ll discover £5 billion by closing the tax hole, which is cracking down on tax avoidance and so forth.
Nonetheless, the difficulty they’re going through there, as we have seen as we speak, Nick, is with regard to these tax cuts, is that they’re open to assault from Labour, who’re accusing them of not having the funding to fill the opening that these cuts would go away.
We’re listening to as we speak from Wes Streeting, for instance, who’s saying that this manifesto quantities to what he calls Liz Truss on steroids.
And that is a wound that Labour are notably eager to maintain punching at, reminding voters of the current chaos, as they name it below Tory rule.
However it’s exhausting to say that the manifesto itself, with all the small print and all of the reduce and thrust and the information and the figures, to what extent that actually cuts by with voters.
I believe what we have seen over the week, what actually does have an effect on them are self-inflicted objectives.
As an example, every week in the past, final Friday, we woke as much as Rishi Sunak having to difficulty a fairly devastating apology coming hours after he’d left the D-Day ceremonies in Normandy early to document an ITV interview.
There was nothing notably urgent about that interview, however there was a sense that conservatives felt they had been on the again foot in opposition to Labour and so they needed to regain the initiative.
That is backfired horribly after Rishi Sunak got here below fairly withering fireplace, together with from some aged veterans themselves who felt they’d been deserted on their day on what realistically is gonna be the final vital anniversary given the age of these heroes.
After which it turned out in that self-same ITV interview, we now study Rishi Sunak was once more reinforcing this sense that he isn’t fully in contact maybe with folks on the market.
He was requested, phrases to the impact, what was the largest hardship you confronted rising up?
And he stated, nicely, we did not have Sky TV.
And I believe for folks like the lady who kicked off the primary ITV debate between Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer, she defined in fairly upsetting element how badly the price of dwelling disaster has affected her and much and many households up and down the nation are gonna relate to tales like that.
So to listen to a multimillionaire who’s already being accused of being out of contact and simply failing to know what persons are going by, to listen to that that is the worst he can provide you with, nicely, that does not actually assist, does it?
Yeah, the Tories are positively obsessive about tax cuts.
And actually that is as a result of it is sort of the one factor they have that they’ll form of latch onto on this marketing campaign as a result of they have been in energy for 14 years, immigration is at document highs, NHS ready lists at document highs.
It’s totally exhausting for them to return out and say, nicely, we’ll kind this out after they’ve been in command of sorting it out for over a decade.
So they are going in on tax cuts and this form of popularity that they beforehand have being the celebration of fiscal duty, however they’re actually form of shedding that.
I imply, after the catastrophe that was Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak’s full incapacity to form of pull that again, I believe all they have now’s him to exit and say, nicely, we’ll reduce your tax.
We’ll provide you with a number of additional pennies in your pay packet.
However there are folks going through clearly huge mortgage hikes, large meals payments, large power payments.
So it is a huge, huge downside for them.
And I do not suppose there’s something that Rishi Sunak can truly do now to persuade people who, sure, I need to vote Tory at this election as a result of I believe they’re those which might be gonna have the ability to kind the nation out.
The Conservatives all the time had a form of base of normal voters, people who exit and vote for the celebration each time as a result of they do like low taxes.
They do suppose they’re the celebration of fiscal duty.
However now you have acquired, I believe, average Tory voters who suppose there’s a whole lot of two proper wing.
You’ve got acquired proper wing Tory voters who suppose there’s a whole lot of two left wing.
And you have got the sensible Tories who simply suppose they’re ineffective.
So it is exhausting to see who’s truly gonna come out and vote for them at this election.
Simply sticking on tax for a bit longer as a result of that was the primary blow struck by both the leaders within the first TV debate that we had between Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer.
So the Prime Minister got here out with this line that for those who elect a Labour authorities, you may get hit with a £2,000 tax invoice.
In order that’s a £2,000 per family.
Keir Starmer, fairly surprisingly, did not have a correct reply to that.
And that was seen as actually fairly a Tory success to have landed an early blow on the Labour chief who on the core difficulty of tax gave the impression to be stumped.
Effectively, that is the place it will get actually fascinating as a result of this £2,000 determine began to unravel fairly rapidly.
So first the Treasury, which compiled some figures which went into the Tory calculations.
The Treasury, probably the most senior civil servant within the Treasury distanced himself from a few of these figures.
Then we had unbiased truth checkers being actually fairly essential about it.
After which we had the UK Statistics Authority stating that this £2,000 determine is a determine over 4 years.
And ministers, Tory candidates and so forth, they’re actually not making that clear.
So voters are being left with the impression that that is £2,000 a 12 months.
Now you’d have thought possibly that the conservators would pull again a bit then as a result of they thought, nicely, truly, possibly that is getting a little bit of tough territory for us.
However truly it is the alternative.
They’ve doubled down on this declare.
So that they carry on repeating it.
Labour will tax you extra.
It’s going to be £2,000 extra tax, despite the fact that this determine is trying more and more uncertain.
However it did lead, although, arguably to Rishi Sunak’s D-Day blunder.
So the day after that debate, the day after the Prime Minister made that fairly questionable declare, Labour had been hitting him from each quarter, saying, you are a liar.
He was in Portsmouth after which in Normandy, feeling like he could not punch again.
Ultimately, when he did hit again, nicely, we noticed what occurred.
It actually, actually unraveled in a short time as a result of he’d left D-Day early.
So there was a conspiracy concept doing the rounds that really Labour, this was all a crafty ruse.
You already know, Keir Starmer let him make that false assault as they noticed it through the debate with the intention to pummel them the subsequent day.
I believe that is a little bit of a stretch.
This stuff are usually extra cock up than conspiracy.
However by way of who received the narrative over these days and since, as a result of this week once more, Rishi Sunak is pressured to apologize in each TV look.
This D-Day factor simply will not go away.
And that’s actually the form of factor the voters do keep in mind.
Effectively, these are very very similar to the headline battleground engagements.
However there’s additionally rather a lot taking place on the native degree in London.
I believe, Rachael, you have acquired some particulars of that, have not you?
Yeah, so I have been out and about in a number of seats in London this week and final week.
Clearly, with this being Manifesto Week, there have not been as many visits.
However final week, there was definitely some ministers out, eager to get folks out on the bottom and be seen campaigning.
I went to Sutton and Cheam, which is a seat that the Tories at the moment maintain, however is below risk from the Lib Dems, principally.
The Lib Dems have gotten it on the high of their goal record just about.
The Tory candidate there, Tom Drummond, was fairly eager to speak about potholes and the way Sutton Lib Dem Council is ineffective at filling in potholes.
We acquired all taken out to this form of deepest, darkest Sutton, to this street.
And James Cleverley, the Dwelling Secretary, got here alongside as nicely to marketing campaign the Tory candidate.
And sadly, although, Sutton Council, I am certain they might deny they acquired wind of this go to, however the Council had been filling within the potholes as we had been there.
So all we had was form of James Cleverley stood in entrance of some council diggers, and so they had been fairly unable to form of go on about how horrible the Lib Dems are at filling in potholes and the way you positively should not vote for them.
However clearly, James Cleverley was, you already know, nonetheless did his bits to digicam, and he would speak to us about crime in London and issues like that.
And so they had been clearly utilizing Sadiq Khan nonetheless as a little bit of a punching bag.
All the pieces is his fault. It is Labour’s fault. That is what the town is like below Labour.
That is what is going to occur.
So it was a form of missed alternative on the piles, however a factor the place they might go on about crime a bit.
Proper, let’s go to a fast advert break.
Developing within the second half, the Labour manifesto.
Hit observe within the meantime.
Welcome again to A Week’s A Lengthy Time in Westminster.
So, Labour’s manifesto, it was very a lot Sir Keir Starmer attempting to win over Center England.
He was saying, we might be pro-business, pro-workers, we are going to concentrate on getting financial progress.
That is the core of our technique, he was saying, and that we’re now a celebration of wealth creation, which was one million miles from the Jeremy Corbyn years.
The issue with Labour’s new technique is that it’s totally, very closely depending on getting wholesome financial progress again in Britain.
And we have had the COVID pandemic, we have had the Putin’s conflict in Ukraine, after which we have had the political turmoil, financial turmoil as nicely of current years, notably below the Liz Truss administration.
So for those who’re banking on getting wholesome financial progress going and you do not get it, what do you do to pay on your public companies on your 40,000 extra appointments to get the NHS backlog down, to pay on your 6,500 extra academics?
So with that wholesome financial progress, you have acquired two choices.
So that you both go for tax rises otherwise you go for borrowing.
And with regards to tax rises, so Keir was very eager to rule out quite a lot of tax rises or potential tax rises.
So he stated there’d be no revenue tax rise, no nationwide insurance coverage tax rise, and no VAT rise.
However he wasn’t so clear about, for instance, capital positive aspects tax.
And there are a selection of tax rises.
They’re much less controversial than the primary ones, however nonetheless fairly controversial that Labour are already continuing with, together with placing VAT on non-public faculty charges, ending the non-dom standing.
That clearly advantages the very rich and shutting loopholes within the windfall tax on oil and gasoline giants.
So that they’re saying we will get all the cash from there for what we have to do and some different issues, however there’s nonetheless an enormous query over that.
There’s clearly been a whole lot of column inches devoted to this VAT on non-public faculty charges, however most likely greater than it warrants, to be trustworthy.
I do not suppose most of the people care concerning the very small variety of folks that really go to non-public faculty, clearly do.
Clearly Rishi Sunak did go to a personal faculty and has been very anti it, saying it is anti-aspirational, however no, it isn’t working in any respect.
Individuals are feeling, we have no aspiration different than simply paying the payments and getting by the week and the month.
And when you have a spare 30,000 kilos a 12 months for personal faculty charges, for those who’re attempting to plead poverty within the present financial local weather, I believe the sympathy is restricted from regular folks.
That may be a battle that Labour are very glad to have.
The place the Tories have been pushing again, they suppose extra successfully maybe is taking a look at precisely what you had been saying there, Nick, about the place’s the cash coming from.
If we do not turbocharge the economic system with this elusive progress that each single authorities that is ever been desires progress, nicely, what occurs if you do not get it?
The Tories as we speak are alleging that Labour have gotten 18 tax rises within the works.
That is principally as a result of each time they ask a Labour individual, are you gonna do that?
Until they are saying completely not, they’re going to say, ah, you are not ruling it out.
So that they’ve totted up the variety of instances that is occurred.
A few of these claims are fairly debatable.
When even final night time, we noticed Angela Rayner truly ruling out a few of these issues.
However they suppose there’s mileage in suggesting that Labour are gonna go after issues like capital positive aspects tax in your major residence.
So for the time being, once you promote your private home, your most important house, you do not pay tax on that.
If that had been to alter, you talked about Center England, which Keir Starmer is clearly concentrating on.
Effectively, that form of factor is gonna go down like a bucket of coal six, to be trustworthy, in these form of Tory heartlands.
In order that’s presumably a preview of what is to return between now and election day in Labour’s defence, or a minimum of to place their viewpoint throughout.
The place is the expansion coming from?
Effectively, they’re saying they have numerous methods of unlocking that progress that the Tories have actively been blocking, similar to planning restrictions to unleash new house constructing, get folks off ready lists, carry down property costs and leases particularly, that are simply taking over a lot extra of everybody’s revenue for the time being.
They’re speaking about bringing down NHS ready lists, getting 3 million folks off sick lists and again into work.
That in itself could be pretty transformative for tax receipts.
Effectively, truly one factor which we’ve not talked about but truly is Nigel Farage.
That is actually fairly attention-grabbing.
So Nigel Farage, having stated he was off to America principally to assist Donald Trump, out of the blue simply turned to alter his thoughts and have become chief of Reform UK.
They surged within the polls.
They’re inflicting all types of issues for the Tories.
However on the identical time this week, we have had some analysis out displaying belief in politics plummeting.
And the explanation for that is fairly attention-grabbing that it’s depart voters who had been principally promised the earth through the 2016 referendum, tighter border controls, financial prosperity.
And shock, shock, this miracle world that they had been promised hasn’t materialized.
However on the identical time, the person who made all these guarantees, Nigel Farage, he noticed within the polls.
So it is actually very counterintuitive that the person who principally instructed lots of people to say a pack of untruths for the 2016 referendum is out of the blue now again as a well-liked politician.
Effectively, he can distance himself from all these guarantees which had been actually made by Boris Johnson as a result of Nigel Farage was by no means in authorities.
He failed seven instances to change into an MP.
That is his eighth try in Clackton.
So he can form of distance himself from these guarantees that had been made and form of say, nicely, if I used to be in cost, it could have been good.
It could have been good.
And that is, I believe, what he is happening.
I believe reform, we noticed a ballot yesterday, which was actually devastating for the Tories that confirmed that reform has truly jumped them now into second place.
Whether or not that can play out with truly getting MPs on the election stays to be seen.
I believe clearly Nigel Farage does have an excellent probability in Clackton, it appears.
If we settle for that Brexit was actually pushed about by discontent about excessive ranges of immigration, that is Farage’s case, is that, nicely, what’s occurred since?
It is solely gone up and up and up ever since 2016.
These guarantees had been by no means delivered upon.
If we’re mentioning Farage on Europe, we have to look on the opposite aspect and Ed Davey.
How do you suppose his techniques are working, Rachael?
Ed Davey’s simply having an exquisite time whereas everybody else is out combating, water snowboarding, happening water slides.
I imply, he is getting column inches, is not he, by protection, by being a bit wacky and doing these form of stunts primarily, which, you already know, it is good.
It is sort of refreshing when everybody’s simply speaking about how a lot they hate one another actually and the way terrible every part is.
You’ve got simply acquired Ed Davey having a whale of a time happening a water slide.
And that is episode one in every of A Week’s A Lengthy Time in Westminster.
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