Singapore – Of the numerous army officers darting throughout the foyer of Singapore’s Shangri-La Resort this weekend, there was one important absence.
China’s Defence Minister Dong Jun skipped the annual Shangri-La Dialogue, Asia’s premier safety discussion board, with Beijing sending a delegation of lower-ranking representatives as an alternative.
It was the primary time since 2019 that China has not dispatched its defence minister to the high-level dialogue on regional defence, besides when the occasion was cancelled in 2020 and 2021 as a result of COVID-19 pandemic.
Beijing’s choice raised eyebrows in Singapore, coming at a time of heightened tensions between China and america – the world’s two largest superpowers.
Dong’s absence meant there was no face-to-face assembly together with his US counterpart, Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth, who had the ground to himself on Saturday when he informed the defence discussion board that the army risk posed by China was doubtlessly imminent.
“It must be clear to all that Beijing is credibly getting ready to doubtlessly use army pressure to change the steadiness of energy within the Indo-Pacific,” Hegseth informed delegates in Singapore.
Pointing to China’s common army drills round Taiwan in addition to more and more frequent skirmishes within the South China Sea, Hegseth stated Beijing was proactively harassing its neighbours.
“There’s no motive to sugar-coat it. The risk China poses is actual, and it might be imminent,” Hegseth stated.
He additionally pointed to China’s rising army assertiveness as a motive for Asian nations to spice up their defence spending, pointing to Germany, which has pledged to maneuver in direction of spending 5 p.c of its gross home product (GDP) on defence.
“It doesn’t make sense for international locations in Europe to do this whereas key allies in Asia spend much less on defence within the face of an much more formidable risk,” Hegseth stated.
The defence chief additionally regarded to reassure Asian allies that Washington was dedicated to Asia Pacific safety regardless of strained ties in current months as US President Donald Trump focused some shut allies with hefty commerce tariffs.
“America is proud to be again within the Indo-Pacific, and we’re right here to remain,” he stated, opening his speech.
Some analysts had been fast to minimize the severity of Hegseth’s warnings about China.
“In need of a only a few international locations, not many on this a part of the world see China as an imminent risk and would up their [defence] spending,” stated Dylan Loh, assistant professor within the public coverage and world affairs programme at Singapore’s Nanyang Technological College.
China tight-lipped on defence chief’s absence
In earlier years, the Shangri-La Dialogue had offered a uncommon platform for conferences between Chinese language and US officers within the extra casual environment that the summit might provide.
The construction of the schedule additionally allowed Beijing’s army chiefs to straight reply to the keynote speech from the US defence secretary and to current their narrative to different members of the Asia Pacific.
Beijing has remained tight-lipped on the explanation for Defence Minister Dong’s absence from the discussion board, fuelling an data void that has been stuffed by hypothesis.
One concept is that China didn’t need to ship a high-profile delegate to the occasion at such a delicate time as Beijing navigates the tariff conflict with the Trump administration.
“Any type of fake pas or feedback that will go off script may be picked up and picked aside or misconstrued,” stated Loh, of Singapore’s Nanyang Technological College.
“So the query is why take the danger when US-China relations are at a really delicate level at this second,” Loh informed Al Jazeera.
The Shangri-La Dialogue weekend has not at all times been the simplest event for Chinese language defence ministers. Lately, they’ve confronted troublesome questions from their counterparts in different international locations, who’re sad with Beijing’s rising assertiveness within the Asia Pacific area.
Loh stated this might be one other consider Dong’s absence from the high-profile occasion.
“Any Chinese language defence minister coming to Singapore now will probably be exposing himself and the nation to political danger,” he stated. “Themes just like the South China Sea and presumably Taiwan will emerge, which makes China a handy goal,” Loh added.
Dong was appointed as China’s defence minister in late 2023, after his predecessor, Li Shangfu, was faraway from workplace.
Lower than a yr into the job, there was hypothesis surrounding Dong’s new place following media reviews that he was underneath investigation as a part of a wider investigation into corruption within the Chinese language army. Beijing denied the reviews, with the minister persevering with to keep up a public profile regardless of the allegations.
There has additionally been intense scrutiny of China’s army, following reviews of an obvious purge of top-level officers by President Xi Jinping.
Certainly one of Beijing’s most senior generals, He Weidong, was lacking from a high-profile political assembly in April, including to rumours surrounding a doable restructuring within the Individuals’s Liberation Military (PLA).
Ian Chong, a nonresident scholar on the Carnegie China analysis centre, stated such hypothesis might be a consider Dong’s no-show in Singapore.
“Due to the home turmoil with China’s senior army, they maybe don’t need to, or the PLA itself feels that it’s not able to ship anyone senior,” Chong informed Al Jazeera.
Saying Dong’s absence at a information convention earlier than the summit, Chinese language army spokesperson Senior Colonel Zhang Xiaogang maintained that communication channels had been nonetheless open between defence officers in Washington and Beijing.
“China locations nice significance on US-China army ties, and is open to communication at completely different ranges,” Zhang stated.
