Manila, Philippines – On February 2, 1995, simply over two years after the final American troopers had left the Philippines, a Filipino navy patrol boat discovered a newly constructed construction on stilts flying a Chinese language flag on a submerged reef, some 240 kilometres (149 miles) off the Philippine island of Palawan.
The sailors had gone to Mischief Reef within the South China Sea after a Filipino fisherman reported being taken captive by Chinese language troopers within the space. Beijing, which claims practically the entire South China Sea, dismissed the allegations and insisted that the octagonal construction on the reef – which was outfitted with a satellite tv for pc dish for communications with the Chinese language mainland – was merely a shelter for its fishermen.
In the present day, Mischief Reef is a totally fledged Chinese language army outpost, with a 3,000-metre airfield runway, radar methods and warehouses in all probability housing surface-to-air missile methods on land reclaimed from the ocean.
Chinese language navy and coastguard vessels patrol the realm, harassing Filipino troops, together with through the use of military-grade lasers and water cannon, and blocking Filipino fishermen from the wealthy fishing grounds within the waterway by ramming their boats and seizing their catches.
The reef, which is submerged at excessive tide and a part of the Spratly Islands, is sort of 1,000km (620 miles) from China’s Hainan Island.
Beijing has now absolutely militarised a complete of three islands within the Spratlys, in line with officers in the USA, and maintains seven army outposts within the space.
Throughout the highest army brass within the Philippines, the view is that China wouldn’t have taken over Mischief Reef had US forces stayed within the nation.
“If in 1992, the US didn’t depart, I don’t suppose that we’ll be shedding Mischief Reef,” mentioned Jay Tarriela, spokesman for the Philippine Coast Guard. “The Philippine authorities – throughout the time that we now have loved the safety umbrella of the USA – have tremendously strengthened the army deterrence of the Philippine authorities. So supposing that these bases are nonetheless right here, I’m 100% certain that none of all this maritime options will likely be taken away from us.”
Now, three many years after the Philippines ended an unlimited US army presence that started with the seize of the archipelago from Spain in 1898, American troops are once more returning.
Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr, who took workplace final yr, has pivoted to Washington, in a reversal of his predecessor’s coverage, increasing the US’s army footprint within the nation underneath their Mutual Protection Treaty of 1951 and a pact known as the Enhanced Protection Cooperation Settlement (EDCA). He has now authorised the Pentagon to pre-position gear and rotate forces by a complete of 9 websites within the Philippines. Some are in Palawan, close to the disputed Spratlys, and a few face north in direction of Taiwan, the self-governed island that Beijing claims as its personal territory.
Marcos has additionally extracted a promise from US President Joe Biden that American troops will come to the Philippines’ defence within the occasion of an assault on the Southeast Asian nation’s armed forces within the South China Sea, one thing Washington had been reluctant to decide to earlier.
“It’s only pure for the Philippines to look to its sole treaty companion on the earth to strengthen and to redefine the connection that we now have and the roles that we play within the face of these rising tensions that we see now across the South China, Asia Pacific and Indo-Pacific area,” Marcos informed Biden throughout a summit in Washington, DC, in Might.
Whereas Marcos Jr’s choices have largely been pushed by the South China Sea territorial dispute, he has additionally shared considerations in regards to the influence of a potential Chinese language invasion of Taiwan, saying that “it’s very exhausting to think about a state of affairs the place the Philippines is not going to by some means become involved”.
Beijing, nonetheless, has hit again on the growth of EDCA, saying the transfer will “critically hurt Philippine nationwide pursuits and endanger regional peace and stability”. The choice would “drag the Philippines into the abyss of geopolitical strife”, it claimed. China’s ambassador to Manila, Huang Xilian, additionally suggested the Philippines in April to “unequivocally oppose ‘Taiwan independence’ slightly than stoking the fireplace by providing the US entry to the army bases close to the Taiwan Strait”.
Analysts say the Philippines is a first-rate instance of how China’s actions have pushed its neighbours nearer to Washington, which has been strengthening an arc of alliances within the Asia Pacific to discourage China. These embrace allies equivalent to Japan, which has protested over Chinese language incursions close to the disputed Senkaku or Diaoyu islands, and non-aligned India, which fought a bloody border battle with Chinese language troops within the Galwan Valley within the Himalayas in 2020.
These territorial disputes “alienate different regional nations with whom [China] usually has very shut financial ties” mentioned Joshua Kurlantzick, senior fellow for Southeast Asia on the Council on International Relations, a US-based suppose tank. “And so in some methods it hurts China’s picture within the area and its gentle energy and maybe in some methods its affect,” he mentioned.
‘Issues stay’
Marcos’s pushback in opposition to China within the South China Sea marks a reversal from the coverage of his predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte.
Duterte took workplace in 2016, shortly earlier than a United Nations-backed tribunal dominated that China’s “9 Sprint Line” claims to the South China Sea – which overlap with the Unique Financial Zone claims of the Philippines, Vietnam, Taiwan, Brunei and Malaysia – had no authorized foundation. However Duterte downplayed the ruling, shelving talks on the difficulty after declaring a “separation” from the US and pivoting in direction of China. He then threatened to terminate the US-Philippine Visiting Forces Settlement, which serves because the authorized basis for Washington’s bilateral army cooperation within the Philippines, suspended joint army workouts and froze US entry to Philippine bases underneath the EDCA.
As a substitute, he turned to China, in search of financing for infrastructure initiatives all through the nation as a part of his “Construct Construct Construct” programme. That yr, China pledged $6bn in official growth help, $3bn in loans, and $24bn in investments to the Philippines. However as the tip of Duterte’s time period approached, solely a small fraction of that financing and funding had reportedly materialised.
Enrique Manalo, the Philippines’ international secretary, informed Al Jazeera that whereas Duterte’s method helped Manila to enter into dialogue with China, it didn’t assist with the decision of the territorial disputes.
“It enabled us in some ways to create mechanisms for dialogue. And not less than gave us a greater alternative to change views and talk about important points, together with the South China Sea. So, it did create the venue for that … However that being mentioned, the issues stay,” he mentioned in an interview in July.
“The [Chinese] presence continues to be there. We had harassment incidents earlier than they usually’re nonetheless persevering with and the hazard is that they almost definitely, they proceed. The hazard is that they may escalate to one thing much more. In order that’s one thing which we’re additionally involved with,” he mentioned. “That’s the problem for us and we now have raised it into China on many, many events… however the scenario stays the identical.”
![Enrique Manalo [Ron Lopez/ Al Jazeera]](https://www.aljazeera.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Manalo-5-1703829899.jpg?w=770&resize=770%2C513)
On this context, the Philippines’s resolution to spice up army ties with the US and enhance the variety of EDCA websites was “purely for our personal nationwide pursuits or geared toward enhancing our personal safety”, he mentioned. The strikes would particularly assist the Philippines within the occasion of pure disasters, he added, whereas declining to touch upon whether or not the bases could possibly be utilized in a disaster over Taiwan
“That may rely on no matter we agree on with the scenario. It’s tough to touch upon it now,” Manalo mentioned. “However simply to say that they’re – in the intervening time, that they’re designed, that the principle precedence there may be to be able to offer humanitarian help and catastrophe aid. After which any use or kind of kit and even kind of personnel that will depend on would rely on prior agreements between the Philippines and the USA.”
‘Bombarded by flooding, typhoons’
Three of the 4 new websites the Philippines has given US troops entry to are within the north of the principle Philippine island of Luzon, dealing with Taiwan. They’re the Camp Melchor Dela Cruz in Isabela province, and Lal-lo airport and Camilo Osias Naval Base within the Cagayan province.
The 2 provinces, residence to almost three million individuals, lie within the Cagayan valley. There, the Philippines’s longest river, the Rio Grande de Cagayan, twists by countless fields of corn and rice. Bounded by the Sierra Madre mountains to the east, the area is hit by some 20 typhoons each season, inflicting widespread flooding and destruction.
At Camp Melchor Dela Cruz, a sprawling and forested army camp residence to the Philippines’ fifth infantry division, the US has dedicated to constructing warehouses, a touchdown pad for rotary plane, a joint coaching facility in addition to a command fusion centre, in line with spokesman Main Rigor N Pamittan. The warehouses will facilitate “the prepositioning of a number of the property of the US armed forces”, he informed Al Jazeera.
“We’re welcoming all of the initiatives,” he mentioned. “We’re bombarded by flooding and typhoons.” US funding within the base in addition to joint workouts will assist Philippine troops reply higher to any humanitarian disasters, he mentioned.
The US may even improve the Lal-lo airport, a desolate airstrip on the tip of Luzon island, some 200km (124 miles) from the southern coast of Taiwan, that sees occasional chartered flights to the close by vacationer city of Santa Ana, in addition to the Camilo Osias Naval Base.
The Philippine authorities desires funding to rehabilitate the airstrip, construct lodging for troops, purchase a brand new generator and improve its electrical methods. And at Camilo Osias, it has requested for funding to construct a fringe fence, highway networks with drainage, gasoline storage, touchdown pads, and warehousing.
Romeo Brawner Jr, the chief of employees of the Filipino armed forces, informed Al Jazeera the Philippines wanted to leverage its alliance with the US attributable to a scarcity of assets.
“Due to the limitation when it comes to our monetary functionality as a nation, we can not actually purchase numerous ships, numerous aeroplanes, radars, anti-tank weapons, our air defence methods,” he mentioned. “We’ve got then to leverage our alliances with the USA, our solely ally, and our companions – Australia, Japan, South Korea, and the opposite ASEAN nations, nations from Europe, even the Americas,” he mentioned.
The army chief insisted that the principle function of the EDCA websites was for humanitarian help and catastrophe response within the Philippines, even within the occasion of a potential Chinese language invasion of Taiwan.
“A disaster in Taiwan would contain, as an example, an inflow of individuals coming from Taiwan. In the event that they wish to depart Taiwan and go to different nations, then they’d have undoubtedly both come to the Philippines or to Japan. And this is able to create eventualities that might contain once more, humanitarian help and catastrophe response. Except for that, if in case one thing actually occurs, certainly one of our issues could be to repatriate our Filipino staff. And we will certainly be launching our operations from the north, bringing our Filipino staff to security, right here in our land,” he mentioned.
Brawner mentioned he was not “apprehensive about agitating China”.
“What we’re actually attempting to do proper now could be we’re selling the pursuits of our nation,” he mentioned. “Even supposing we lack trendy weapons, we lack the massive gadgets, we’re assured as a result of one of many instructions that we’re pursuing is creating the alliances and the partnerships with like-minded nations. Once more, this isn’t simply the issue or the curiosity of the Philippines for us to have a free and open Indo-Pacific. However extra importantly, we’re additionally selling a rules-based worldwide order. And we now have like-minded nations to again us up with that.”
Anxiousness in Cagayan
In Cagayan, nonetheless, there may be concern that the Philippines’ resolution to spice up ties with the US may invite battle.
Manuel Mamba, the province’s governor, mentioned he sees the EDCA websites as a “magnet of assault by the enemies of the USA”.
The politician, who gained workplace in 2016, mentioned he needed to revitalise the province’s financial system by creating tourism and a river port there. He desires to draw vacationers from China, South Korea and Japan, and dredge the Aparri port – which has been closed for 20 years – so it may well ship the province’s agricultural merchandise to the Philippines’ northern neighbours. Mamba worries that EDCA growth may disrupt these plans.
“There will likely be extra advantages if we may reconnect ourselves with our neighbours within the north. As a result of my province is the closest and we now have been disconnected from them,” he mentioned. “If a battle is hanging on all of us, who will likely be investing in us? That’s the reason I’ve all the time been saying that we wouldn’t have enemies. Everyone seems to be our pals. And we need to have worldwide financial exchanges with them.”
The individuals of Cagayan are afraid of battle, too.
Ofelia P Ravelo, a 53-year-old navy reservist who educated with US troopers on catastrophe aid final yr, mentioned individuals of the province have been “afraid that there is perhaps battle right here”.
Throughout the US-Philippines’s annual Balikatan joint workouts this April, when planes zoomed overhead, many individuals questioned if a battle had damaged out, she mentioned.
“It’s peaceable right here,” Ravelo informed Al Jazeera. “If the enemy of the US knew they’re right here, they are going to come right here. For me, it’s higher that the US don’t come right here.”
Close to the Camilo Osias base, Evelyn Umengan, a 45-year-old vendor promoting meat and greens mentioned, “It’s good in the event that they [US troops] are going to assist us in time of disasters.” Umengan, who lives close to the ocean, mentioned robust typhoons often inundate her retailer. “However we additionally really feel afraid, as a result of if there’s numerous them, it may entice their enemies,” she added.
Elevated tensions
Because the Philippines has ramped up ties with the US, tensions have grown with China within the South China Sea.
In February, the Philippines accused China’s coastguard of directing a “military-grade laser” at its troops dwelling on a dilapidated warship on Second Thomas Shoal close to Mischief Reef. The Philippines in 1999 grounded the BRP Sierra Madre on the shoal in a bid to spice up its claims over the Spratly Islands, and the handful of troops garrisoned on the run-down vessel rely on common resupply missions to outlive their distant task.
China has repeatedly urged the Philippines to take away the grounded ship, and Manila in flip has known as on Beijing to additionally take away all “unlawful constructions” constructed inside its EEZ.
The laser incident was adopted by a number of confrontations.
In August, the Philippines accused China of utilizing a water cannon in opposition to Filipino provide boats delivering meals, gasoline and water to the Sierra Madre troops. And in October, the Philippines accused the Chinese language coastguard of deliberately colliding with its resupply boats within the space. Earlier this month, the Philippines once more accused China of firing water cannon at its boats and ramming others, inflicting severe engine injury.
Manila known as the actions of the Chinese language vessels a “severe escalation”, whereas Beijing accused the Philippine boats of trespassing on its territory.
The Chinese language international ministry final week warned the Philippines that ties between the 2 nations have been at a “crossroads” and mentioned that if Manila misjudged or colluded with “ill-intentioned” forces, Beijing would defend its rights and reply resolutely.
Regardless of the rising tensions, analysts in Manila say conventional strategies of diplomacy with China have failed and the Philippines has no alternative however to work with allies.
“No matter motion the Philippines takes to guard its nationwide curiosity will all the time be construed by China as a provocation,” mentioned Rommel Jude G Ong, a professor on the Ateneo Faculty of Authorities and a former Filipino naval officer.
“The very best plan of action for the Philippines is to strengthen its capability to discourage China unilaterally and in live performance with the US and different strategic companions,” he added.
