Nylander, 27, is now the recipient of the most important complete worth contract within the Maple Leafs’ 100-plus-year historical past at $92M. He can be 36 years outdated when his mega-deal expires in 2032, making him eligible for unrestricted free company for the primary time in his profession as his prime years are assumedly winding down.
It is a landmark deal for a participant who’s emerged as undoubtedly their second-most vital ahead this season. Whereas famous person first-line heart Auston Matthews has stolen the present along with his 30 objectives in simply 36 video games, Nylander has damaged the financial institution when it comes to factors. His 21 objectives and 33 assists give him 54 factors on the 12 months in 37 video games, placing him on tempo for 120 – shattering final season’s career-high mark of 87.
Nylander’s been seen as a bona fide top-six winger since he completed sixth place in Calder Trophy voting in 2016-17. Nevertheless, there have at all times been exterior questions surrounding the compete and consistency stage of the 2014 eighth-overall decide. Most of these have been quieted up to now 12 months, with Nylander persevering with to supply glorious postseason play (regardless of Toronto’s abbreviated playoff runs), including in glorious possession metrics and now proving himself as a yearly risk for 40-plus objectives.
The main thought amongst public opinion will seemingly be that new GM Brad Treliving shoehorned himself by not signing Nylander to a deal final summer season when discussions had been reportedly within the $9M-$10M AAV vary. Nevertheless, Friedman countered that on this morning’s version of the “32 Ideas” podcast. He believes that Nylander’s camp has been holding steadfast to a better quantity since negotiations started final July, and whereas he couldn’t affirm that an $11.5M AAV on an eight-year deal was Nylander’s preliminary ask, it was shut sufficient to get the deal finished as soon as the Leafs arrived at that quantity.
It’s unlikely the Leafs had been snug with a $1.5M leap in worth per season based mostly on a 30-game sizzling streak. Superior metrics present this run of play from Nylander may very properly be sustainable over the primary few seasons of the deal, nonetheless, making the workforce’s third $11M+ cap hit on the books subsequent season simpler to swallow.
For one, he’s capturing the puck extra – seemingly resulting from an uptick in ice time this season of round a minute and a half. He’s now proven he’s capable of climate greater than 20 minutes per sport on a routine foundation, one thing the Leafs will depend on him to do as their bevy of high-paying contracts restricts their potential so as to add depth on offense. Thus, regardless of his career-high 47-goal tempo, Nylander is capturing at a proportion proper round his profession common (12.9% this season in comparison with his 12.3% common), and at a capturing proportion decrease than three out of the final 4 seasons. His possession numbers stay fairly robust, too, together with a 53.4% Corsi share and a 4% relative Corsi share at even power this 12 months. Put merely, his play this season warrants the box-score numbers he’s produced.
That makes it an extremely tough choice to think about parting with Nylander, who’s developed right into a core participant for Toronto in each sense of the phrase. He’ll have spent a decade already within the group subsequent summer season, and he’s managed to resist, at instances, quite a lot of public criticism from native media and reply with an 18-month span that’s solidified him as a top-five proper wing within the league. By protecting him round long-term, the Maple Leafs will get to reap the rewards of their persistence.
Whether or not or not the workforce’s present building below the wage cap can result in a Stanley Cup win is probably the most urgent query, although, a cry that may turn into louder with now over 50% of subsequent season’s wage cap dedicated to Nylander, Matthews, Mitch Marner and captain John Tavares. In hindsight, which may be a extra vital metric in assessing this deal’s worth relatively than Nylander’s particular person manufacturing over the subsequent eight seasons.
For now, Nylander can be one of many six highest-paid gamers within the league subsequent season when it comes to AAV behind Matthews ($13.25M), Avalanche heart Nathan MacKinnon ($12.6M), Oilers famous person Connor McDavid ($12.5M), Rangers winger Artemi Panarin ($11.64M), and Penguins blueliner Erik Karlsson ($11.5M). It’s fairly lofty firm for Nylander initially of the contract, however his cap hit’s place in these standings will constantly drop as extra eight-figure offers get inked with the approaching sharp rise of the wage cap’s Higher Restrict.
In signing this deal, the Maple Leafs additionally take the highest pending unrestricted free agent of the 2024 class off the board. That title now goes to a bunch of first-line skills within the Jap Convention – Penguins first-line mainstay Jake Guentzel, Lightning captain Steven Stamkos, and, amidst a breakout season on tempo for 59 objectives and 105 factors, Panthers winger Sam Reinhart.
Nylander’s full no-movement clause will shield him from any trades, waiver placements, or future enlargement drafts over the lifetime of the deal until he consents. It doesn’t, nonetheless, prohibit Toronto from shopping for out his contract if the final seasons of the deal age poorly.
