A rocket almost certainly fired by Hamas militants throughout their Oct. 7 assault on Israel struck an Israeli army base the place, consultants say, most of the nation’s nuclear-capable missiles are based mostly, in line with a visible evaluation of the assault’s aftermath by The New York Instances.
Whereas the missiles themselves weren’t hit, the rocket’s influence, on the Sdot Micha base in central Israel, sparked a hearth that approached missile storage amenities and different delicate weaponry.
Israel has by no means acknowledged the existence of its nuclear arsenal, although Israeli whistle-blowers, U.S. officers and satellite tv for pc imagery analysts all agree that the nation possesses not less than a small variety of nuclear weapons.
Hans Kristensen, director of the Federation of American Scientists’ Nuclear Info Challenge, informed The Instances that he estimates there are almost certainly 25 to 50 nuclear-capable Jericho missile launchers on the base. In response to consultants and declassified U.S. authorities paperwork, Israel’s Jericho missiles are outfitted to hold nuclear warheads.
These warheads are almost certainly saved in a separate location away from the bottom and thus weren’t beneath risk through the assault, stated Mr. Kristensen, who has studied the bottom.
The beforehand unreported strike on Sdot Micha is the primary recognized occasion of Palestinian militants hitting a web site suspected of containing Israeli nuclear weaponry. It’s unclear in the event that they knew the specifics of what they had been concentrating on, past the bottom merely being a army facility. Hamas, the group that fired nearly all of the rockets on Oct. 7, didn’t reply to requests for remark.
However the concentrating on of one of the vital delicate army places in Israel exhibits that the scope of the Oct. 7 assaults could have been even better than beforehand recognized — and that rockets can penetrate the airspace round Israel’s intently guarded strategic weapons.
The assault on the realm round Sdot Micha concerned a sequence of rockets over a number of hours, in line with warning alarm information. It’s unclear what number of rockets had been intercepted by Israel’s Iron Dome air protection system, or managed to slide by and hit the bottom along with the one discovered by The Instances. In some circumstances across the nation on Oct. 7, Iron Dome turned overwhelmed by the quantity of incoming hearth or ran out of interceptor missiles.
A spokesman for the Israel Protection Forces declined to touch upon The Instances’s findings. Since Oct. 7, although, Israel seems to have acknowledged and responded to the specter of rocket assaults at Sdot Micha. Latest satellite tv for pc pictures present new earthen berms and boundaries have been constructed round army positions close to the rocket influence location, presumably to defend towards shrapnel or blast particles from future assaults.
The Instances first recognized the fireplace attributable to the assault on Sdot Micha utilizing public NASA satellite tv for pc imagery for detecting wildfires. There has not been a hearth — from any trigger — of comparable magnitude on the base since not less than 2004.
Additional proof of the assault exists in publicly out there satellite tv for pc imagery, rocket alarm data and social media posts, which additionally revealed efforts to battle the comb hearth ignited by the fallen rocket.
The rocket struck throughout the confines of the bottom, situated 25 miles northeast of Gaza and 15 miles west of Jerusalem, at round 10 a.m. It landed in a small ravine adjoining to a Jericho missile facility, a big radar system and a battery of air protection missiles. The explosion shortly began a hearth within the thick, dry vegetation.
Whereas The Instances couldn’t affirm if different rockets additionally struck the bottom, satellite tv for pc imagery captured at 10:30 a.m. exhibits the fireplace close to the Jericho missiles was the one one on the bottom.
Extra satellite tv for pc pictures taken within the hours after the strike captured the speedy unfold of the fireplace and Israeli firefighters’ efforts to stem its progress. At the least two firefighting plane and streaks of vivid crimson hearth retardant had been seen close to the fireplace. The subsequent day, a satellite tv for pc picture revealed that new roads and firebreaks had been minimize by the woods to include the flames, which seemed to be extinguished.
Decker Eveleth, a researcher on the Middlebury Institute of Worldwide Research who analyzed the photographs, stated it appeared that “paths had been created by firefighting autos ensuring the fireplace didn’t get close to the launchers.”
In response to a College of Maryland database monitoring assaults on nuclear amenities, there have been solely about 5 recognized strikes worldwide on bases with nuclear weapons prior to now. However due to the inherent secrecy of nuclear weapons, the precise quantity could by no means be publicly recognized. Nonetheless, Gary Ackerman, one of many researchers who established the database, stated the Oct. 7 assault was distinctive. “This isn’t one thing that occurs each day,” he stated.
Hamas and different Palestinian militant teams sometimes hearth rockets at Israeli cities and cities comparatively near Gaza. Certainly, they fired 1000’s of projectiles at these places on Oct. 7. On the rarer events that the teams hearth longer-range rockets, they normally goal Israeli cities farther from Gaza like Tel Aviv and Rishon LeZion fairly than the army bases storing superior weaponry that, in some circumstances, are a lot nearer to Gaza.
The Sdot Micha base, in existence since 1962 and clearly seen on public satellite tv for pc imagery, occupies 1000’s of acres of rolling hills. Whereas rockets fired by militants within the Gaza Strip will be inaccurate, it’s unlikely Sdot Micha was hit accidentally. There are nearly no different targets — apart from delicate army amenities — inside two miles of the rocket’s influence web site. There are additionally few necessary, nonmilitary targets within the better area as a complete due to its sparse inhabitants.
Although the fireplace burned roughly 40 acres on the base, weaponry and gear remained secure. The flames stopped about 1,000 ft from the closest suspected Jericho missile facility, however approached inside 400 ft of a giant radar system constructed on a hill on the base, in accordance a Instances evaluation of satellite tv for pc imagery.
Mr. Kristensen noticed that, even when the fireplace had reached the missiles, their underground, tunneled storage amenities had been constructed to resist injury. Nonetheless, he famous the dangers inherent in a hearth of this measurement burning close to risky gasoline and munition depots. “All types of issues can go mistaken,” he stated.
Alexander Cardia and Scott Reinhard contributed manufacturing.
