Because the Gaza warfare rages, with civilian deaths hovering, few Arab leaders have publicly voiced their visions for the way forward for the battered enclave, fearing they are going to be accused of endorsing Israel’s actions.
However one influential Palestinian exile, in an interview with The New York Instances, has supplied public perception into the varieties of postwar plans that Arab leaders are privately discussing.
Mohammed Dahlan, an adviser to the president of the United Arab Emirates, outlined one beneath which Israel and Hamas would hand energy to a brand new and impartial Palestinian chief who might rebuild Gaza beneath the safety of an Arab peacekeeping drive.
Whereas such plans face steep challenges, the leaders of Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the Emirates are open to supporting processes which are a part of efforts resulting in a Palestinian state, mentioned Mr. Dahlan, who additionally has shut ties to Egypt’s president, Abdel Fattah el-Sisi.
Officers from six Arab governments gathered in Saudi Arabia final week to debate the way forward for Gaza and the necessity for a cease-fire, in keeping with two Palestinian officers, who spoke on the situation of anonymity.
Below the plan outlined by Mr. Dahlan and echoed privately by Arab nations, a brand new Palestinian chief would assume duty for Gaza and the elements of the Israeli-occupied West Financial institution at present administered by the Palestinian Authority. That chief would change Mahmoud Abbas, the authority’s 88-year-old president, who would retain a ceremonial function, Mr. Dahlan mentioned.
“No Abbas, no Hamas,” mentioned Mr. Dahlan, who has lengthy been at odds with Mr. Abbas. “New individuals in command of the Palestinian Authority.”
For years, Mr. Dahlan was remoted from the Palestinian political scene, and criticized by many energy gamers.
He was Mr. Abbas’s nationwide safety adviser when Hamas took over Gaza in 2007, and he had a repute for brutality that made him unpopular with many Palestinians. His relationship with Mr. Abbas deteriorated amid perceptions that he was making an attempt to succeed him, and he was convicted of corruption in absentia, on expenses he denies, in 2016.
Within the U.A.E., he constructed shut relationships with members of the royal household, initially reconnecting with Sheikh Hazza bin Zayed, his former counterpart within the Emirati safety institution. He additionally linked with Sheikh Hazza’s brother, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed, who turned president in 2022. Mr. Dahlan has since develop into one in every of his key advisers.
“He’s very a lot the Emirati president’s level man on Palestinian coverage,” Mouin Rabbani, a Palestinian politics knowledgeable, mentioned of Mr. Dahlan.
Mr. Dahlan nonetheless has critics who say that he used heavy-handed techniques in Gaza, and that he had an inclination for self-promotion. However he’s a major drive in Palestinian politics, analysts say, partly the results of his serving to to steer Emirati funds to Gaza.
He oversees a political get together that was seen as a potential kingmaker throughout a 2021 election marketing campaign within the West Financial institution and Gaza, earlier than the vote was canceled. He coordinates usually with different Palestinian opposition leaders in a free community in search of to unseat Mr. Abbas.
“He’s a outstanding Palestinian politician with a large community of help in Gaza,” mentioned Jehad Harb, an analyst based mostly in Ramallah, within the West Financial institution. “The tens of millions the Emirates has funneled to Gaza by means of him has solely bolstered his standing there.”
Mr. Dahlan additionally has constructed shut ties with high Hamas officers lately, in keeping with Ghaith al-Omari, an analyst of Palestinian affairs on the Washington Institute for Close to East Coverage.
Within the interview, Mr. Dahlan, 62, mentioned a brand new Palestinian administration might invite pleasant Arab states to ship troops to assist preserve order in Gaza. And international locations just like the U.A.E. and Saudi Arabia can be ready to assist — and to fund reconstruction — if Israel agreed to the creation of a Palestinian state, he mentioned.
“If there’s a two-state resolution, the reply is an enormous sure,” Mr. Dahlan mentioned.
“The principle Arab international locations are actually very eager to settle this battle,” he added. “Not the warfare, the entire battle.”
Saudi Arabia and Egypt declined to touch upon the plan described by Mr. Dahlan. A U.A.E. assertion didn’t straight handle the plan, however mentioned, “Our contribution to any reconstruction effort in Gaza shall be conditional” on commitments towards reaching “a two-state resolution.”
Briefed on the plan that Mr. Dahlan described, Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, an Emirati political scientist, mentioned it was “in step with what we find out about what we name ‘the day after’” the warfare, referring to what he had been listening to about discussions amongst Arab leaders.
The plan faces appreciable hurdles. The Palestinian Authority and Mr. Abbas have balked at adjustments to the group, which stays mired in corruption and is extensively seen as authoritarian.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel has pledged to retain “total safety” management over Gaza and the West Financial institution, rejecting a totally sovereign Palestinian state. Mr. Netanyahu’s political base can be pushing to resettle Israeli civilians inside Gaza as soon as the warfare ends.
Any proposal would additionally require buy-in from Hamas, which nonetheless controls a part of southern Gaza.
The state of affairs in Gaza is dire: An estimated 28,000 individuals have been killed; most buildings are broken or destroyed, in keeping with the United Nations; and many of the 2.2 million residents have fled their houses.
Mr. Dahlan mentioned that a few of his household had been killed in Gaza and that lots of their houses had been destroyed.
Mr. Dahlan grew up in southern Gaza, in the identical metropolis as Yahya Sinwar, the Hamas chief who oversaw the Oct. 7 assault on Israel.
Mr. Dahlan joined Fatah, Hamas’s secular rival, and rose to develop into the Palestinian Authority’s safety chief in Gaza. He was touring outdoors Gaza when Hamas seized management of it in 2007, stripping him of his energy and prompting his flight to the West Financial institution. 4 years later, Mr. Dahlan fell out with Mr. Abbas. After he was ousted from Fatah and Palestinian safety forces raided his residence in Ramallah, he fled.
In exile, Mr. Dahlan accrued energy, wealth and affect by means of his shut friendship with the Emirati president, whom he represents as an emissary all through the area.
The indicators of his snug place in Abu Dhabi had been obvious throughout the interview, which befell contained in the grounds of a palace owned by the Emirati royal household. Exterior his workplace stood a chrome-colored Bentley; in his sitting room had been at the very least 12 giant sofas.
Although as soon as seen by some Israelis as a possible accomplice, Mr. Dahlan confirmed little sympathy for Israeli considerations within the interview. He dismissed the concept of him making an attempt to persuade Israelis in regards to the want for a Palestinian state. “It’s not my job to persuade the Israelis,” he mentioned. “Allow them to go to hell.”
Mr. Dahlan mentioned he was working to persuade Hamas to cede energy to a brand new Palestinian management, hinting that the group could possibly be persuaded to surrender management as a part of a broader package deal that created a Palestinian state.
For a decade, Mr. Dahlan has been extensively thought of a potential successor to Mr. Abbas. However within the interview, he mentioned he was tired of taking over a proper management function.
Mr. Dahlan is unlikely to be in a rush to depart the U.A.E. in an effort to lead a sophisticated reconstruction course of in a rancorous political system, Mr. Omari mentioned. Nonetheless, he has spent appreciable money and time sustaining networks within the West Financial institution and Gaza, suggesting he has long-term political aspirations, Mr. Omari mentioned.
“He’s not somebody who has checked out of Palestine,” he mentioned.
Like different senior Palestinian politicians, Mr. Dahlan shied away from condemning the Hamas-led assault, by which Israeli officers say about 1,200 individuals had been killed.
However he criticized Hamas leaders for claiming that Gazans had been able to pay the value of the group’s actions.
“Counting on individuals struggling isn’t management,” he mentioned. “The Palestinian individuals need to dwell.”
