Amid a wave of historic election upsets in Southern Africa, Namibians will go to the polls this week to vote in presidential and parliamentary elections set to be probably the most aggressive and tightly contested but.
The vote on Wednesday comes after independence-era liberation events that lengthy held onto energy have been kicked out in Botswana and crippled in South Africa earlier this yr. In Mozambique, the governing Frelimo celebration’s current win has led to ongoing lethal protests amid allegations of electoral manipulation.
A newcomer celebration is ready to additional loosen the grip of the governing SWAPO (South West Africa Folks’s Organisation) Get together of Namibia. The celebration has ruled the nation since independence from apartheid South Africa in 1990.
Rising dissatisfaction among the many youth may imply that the celebration dangers shedding the presidency and parliamentary majority for the primary time. Its vote share has declined quickly over the past two elections.
Nevertheless, analysts say that though SWAPO faces the identical points as its counterparts in neighbouring international locations, the Namibian opposition lacks coordination.
“Opposition events are usually not properly organised right here like in South Africa or Botswana. That may see SWAPO get off the hook and get on monitor to win parliament,” Graham Hopwood, the manager director of the Windhoek-based Institute for Public Coverage Analysis (IPPR), instructed Al Jazeera.
Namibia is huge however with simply 3 million folks, making it one of many most-sparsely populated international locations in Africa. Its harsh, arid atmosphere is basically unsuitable for residing. The nation is house to the Kalahari and Namib deserts. Its capital metropolis is Windhoek.
The November 27 vote would be the seventh since independence. Some 1.45 million persons are registered to vote.
Right here’s all it is advisable to find out about who’s working and what’s at stake:
How will folks vote?
- Some 1.45 million eligible voters will decide the president and members of the Nationwide Meeting.
- Twenty-one events are competing for 96 parliament seats. There are 15 presidential candidates.
- Presidential candidates are required to win greater than 50 % of the vote to safe the highest job.
- If no candidate wins the bulk vote, the 2 highest-polling candidates will face off in a second election spherical. This has by no means occurred in Namibia.
Who’s working for president?
Vice President Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah (72): She is the governing SWAPO Get together’s first feminine presidential candidate and the favorite to win the election, though analysts say she faces sturdy competitors. If she wins, she is going to grow to be Namibia’s first feminine president.
Nandi-Ndaitwah was amongst a bunch of SWAPO members actively concerned within the nation’s combat for independence in exile. She returned from the UK to affix parliament in 1990 and went on to function minister with a number of portfolios through the years. The late President Hage Geingob, who died of most cancers in February, picked Nandi-Ndaitwah as deputy prime minister and had chosen her as his successor earlier than his passing.
Regardless of SWAPO’s incumbency, the politician faces a number of hurdles, analysts say. There’s standard dissatisfaction with the celebration in a extremely unequal nation the place housing and employment stay out of grasp for a lot of, and the place corruption is rife. Younger folks, particularly, don’t consider in SWAPO’s continued energy.
Whereas Geingob obtained greater than 80 % of the votes in 2014, his 2019 share dropped to 56 %. SWAPO equally misplaced a two-thirds majority in parliament in 2019. It was the primary time that occurred since 1994.
“The attract of the liberation wrestle is fading for SWAPO, as a result of many younger folks can’t keep in mind it, or have been born afterwards,” Hopwood of the IPPR mentioned. Additionally untested is the urge for food amongst Namibia’s male voters for a girl president, the analyst added.
Namibia is one in every of Africa’s most gender-equal international locations. Practically half of the seats in parliament are held by ladies, and Prime Minister Saara Kuugongelwa-Amadhila is feminine. Nevertheless, the prime minister is appointed, whereas this could be the primary time voters could be electing a lady chief.
Nonetheless, Hopwood added, Nandi-Ndaitwah is popularly seen as not corrupt, in contrast to a few of her SWAPO counterparts.
In a particular vote session on November 12, held for some 16,300 folks, together with these like safety officers who can’t forged ballots on November 27, the politician led the opposite candidates with 60 % of the vote.
Panduleni Itula (67): Itula was as soon as a SWAPO youth chief earlier than his exile to the UK within the Seventies. There, he studied and practised as a dentist for greater than 30 years, and returned to Namibia in 2013.
Within the 2019 elections, Itula shook up the political panorama when he ran as an unbiased candidate towards late President Geingob, a lot to the anger of the SWAPO management. Itula managed to clinch a major 29 % of the vote. It was not sufficient to dam Geingob’s second-term plans, nevertheless it was one of the best any challenger had finished towards the governing celebration.
Itula criticises the SWAPO authorities for what he describes as endemic corruption and normal inefficiency in Namibia. He was expelled from SWAPO in 2020.
Now, he’s again underneath his Unbiased Patriots for Change (IPC) celebration. He stays standard, particularly amongst Namibia’s younger. Itula has promised financial prosperity for the youth, and desires to scale back company taxes so extra international firms can transfer to the nation.
If younger folks end up on the polls, Itula may threaten SWAPO’s probabilities, because the politician appeals to the youth, analyst Hopwood mentioned. The Namibian Electoral Fee says 91 % of eligible voters have registered to vote, with many new voters being underneath 30.
“SWAPO faces a severe problem from Dr Itula they usually’ll be fearful forward of the vote,” Hopwood mentioned.
McHenry Venaani (47): He’s the chief of the Common Democratic Motion (PDM), Namibia’s largest opposition celebration. Though the celebration holds 16 out of 96 seats in parliament, probably the most after SWAPO, Venaani solely managed to clinch 5 % of the votes in 2019 when he ran for president.
Bernadus Swartbooi (47): He leads the Landless Folks’s Motion (LPM) which campaigns for land redistribution to Namibians whose land was dispossessed by German settlers within the 1900s. The LPM has 4 seats in parliament. In 2019, Swartbooi, previously of SWAPO, gained 3 % of the vote.
Job Amupanda (37): The college professor leads the Affirmative Repositioning (AR) motion which began off as an advocacy group. The entity focuses on land reform programmes as properly, and advocates for extra aggressive approaches, corresponding to forceful takeovers of foreign-owned land.
Many absentee landowners are of German and South African descent, and stay completely in South Africa, Germany or different European international locations.
What are the important thing points?
Financial system and inequality: Though a middle-income nation wealthy in uranium and diamonds, Namibia’s wealth is erratically distributed, relationship again to a legacy of apartheid and violent colonialism. It’s the second most unequal nation on this planet after South Africa.
Poverty ranges are excessive, with greater than 64 % of the inhabitants residing beneath $5.50 every day in line with the World Financial institution. The bulk Black Namibian inhabitants and minority ethnic teams are particularly at an obstacle.
A punishing drought, in the meantime, is ravaging the nation’s meals manufacturing. It’s the worst in a century, in line with the World Meals Programme. Some 48 % of the inhabitants want pressing meals help, and 17 % of youngsters underneath 5 are stunted.
Unemployment: About 43 % of Namibia’s youth are unemployed, one of many highest charges on the continent, in line with official numbers final launched in 2016. Nandi-Ndaitwah of SWAPO has pledged to spend about 85 billion Namibian {dollars} ($4.7bn) over the subsequent 5 years to create greater than 500,000 jobs, however there are questions on how the funds can be sourced.
The IPC’s Itula, in the meantime, desires to liberalise the economic system and permit extra international firms in.
Corruption: Successive SWAPO governments are accused of deep-rooted corruption. The fish-rot scandal that broke in 2019 nonetheless causes a stench. Fishing is profitable in Namibia and accounts for 20 % of export income.
A number of prime authorities officers, together with late President Geingob, have been implicated after WikiLeaks launched recordsdata revealing how officers ran schemes to regulate beneficial fishing quotas earlier than diverting them to an Iceland firm for kickbacks. Six folks, together with two ministers from SWAPO, have been jailed.
Though Vice President Nandi-Nanditwah will not be implicated, SWAPO has come underneath fireplace for permitting some celebration members who’re nonetheless being investigated to marketing campaign for her forward of the election, like SWAPO’s Youth League Secretary Ephraim Nekongo.
Housing disaster and land reform: The inequality spills over into land and property possession. Namibia urgently wants greater than half 1,000,000 properties to resolve a extreme housing scarcity, however a lot of the inhabitants wouldn’t qualify for a mortgage due to poverty and excessive property costs, in line with the World Financial Discussion board. Near half 1,000,000 folks stay in shacks and casual housing items in Windhoek.
Leftist events just like the Affirmative Repositioning motion have promised to assemble 300,000 homes over 5 years. In the meantime, Itula’s IPC says it’s going to declare a state of emergency on housing.
A land reform programme, which aimed to purchase again land from largely white farm house owners to resettle poorer Namibians, has not run easily. Farmers are reluctant to promote land, or promote it at inflated costs, making it troublesome for the federal government to amass satisfactory land for resettlement functions.
Events just like the AR have taken what analysts name a “radical place”, promising to forcibly reclaim some 1.4 million hectares (3,500,000) acres of land from foreigners and absentee landlords. The PDM has additionally promised to offer free land plots to the folks.
What else?
Polls on Wednesday will shut at 9pm CAT (19:00 GMT).
Outcomes may very well be introduced on the next day, November 28.
Nevertheless, with the electoral fee reverting to poll papers, the outcomes would possibly take a couple of extra days to emerge. Quite a few vote tallying issues within the 2019 elections marred the usage of digital card readers and prompted the change.
Analysts say Wednesday’s vote is more likely to be peaceable as elections have been up to now. Nevertheless, some consultants fear that delayed outcomes may end in allegations of fraud and even pockets of violence, as was seen in Mozambique.
