Erik Spoelstra stated one thing fascinating to a bunch of reporters I used to be within the different day. He wouldn’t go as far as to say his Miami Warmth might flip the swap come playoff time, however he did acknowledge that he takes the common season in phases.
Groups know who they’re greater than three-quarters of the best way by the NBA season. Lottery groups begin waiting for the draft and prioritize creating younger gamers, play-in groups gear up for a run at some playoff income and contenders like Spoelstra’s Warmth usually begin tightening the screws on issues that would grow to be points within the postseason. Or, at the very least, they fight.
Relying on who you ask, there are between 10 and 14 contenders this season. Some have dominated the common season to the purpose that they’re plain threats whereas others get slightly extra good thing about the doubt based mostly on their core’s shared historical past.
We’ll be diving into every contender’s probably deadly flaw — the screw they should tighten — that would forestall them from successful the 2024 NBA championship.
Boston Celtics: What in the event that they go chilly?
Scan any Celtics weblog or podcast lengthy sufficient and the primary main pink flag they’ll throw out is Kristaps Porzingis’ well being. Little question that Porzingis suffers from a checkered harm historical past, however accidents occur (or don’t) and aren’t value spending time on right here.
Past accidents, the Celtics might run into hassle if the three-point shot immediately goes chilly.
The Celtics have been the most effective three-point capturing group within the league this season, averaging extra made threes per possession than another group within the league. They’re fourth in share and first in makes an attempt.
They’re constructed to win video games with their three-point shot, and so they have received extra video games than any group within the league this season and are out-scoring groups by greater than 10 factors per 100 possessions. They’ve dominated.
The issue is that when these threes aren’t stepping into, they resemble extra of a mean group.
Half of Boston’s losses have are available in video games during which they’ve made fewer than 15 threes (they’re 7-6 in these video games). When the three-point shot isn’t falling they don’t have a lot recourse.
The Celtics rank within the backside 10 in free-throw makes an attempt fee and rely lots on isolations and post-ups. If their opponent will get sizzling, they will beat these twos with threes of their very own.
The Celtics are a really completely different group than they have been final season, however of their 2023 playoff run, they made fewer than 15 threes in 9 video games. They went 2-7 in these video games, which finally value them an opportunity to repeat as Japanese Convention champs.
The Celtics are the group to beat within the East and, in the event that they execute, they’ll probably make the Finals. However they aren’t good.
Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder: Have they reached their ceiling already?
We see it yearly: A group that wins extra video games than anticipated at the very least partly to nice well being. Final yr, it was the Sacramento Kings. This yr, it’s plain that the Thunder have been the beneficiaries of excellent well being.
No beginning lineup has performed extra video games collectively than Oklahoma Metropolis’s. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Josh Giddey, Lu Dort, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren have began in 47 of 57 video games this season.
To be honest, that lineup can be beating opponents by 6.4 factors each 100 possessions. The Thunder are a terrifying group with a number of methods to beat you. Nevertheless it’s additionally value questioning if this younger group has one other degree to get to within the playoffs.
They won’t want one. The Thunder and Celtics are the one groups within the league that rank within the prime 4 in each offensive and defensive scores.
Gilgeous-Alexander is a bona fide MVP candidate with a recreation that ought to blossom within the postseason, and Williams isn’t far behind him in star potential. Holmgren impacts almost each possession he’s part of.
However what occurs when opponents begin being extra cautious with the ball and OKC’s transition alternatives dry up? In a half-court recreation, can the Thunder seize sufficient rebounds (twenty ninth in defensive rebounding fee) to stop probably crippling putbacks?
Los Angeles Clippers: Transition protection
Because the Clippers morphed into among the finest groups within the league after the James Harden commerce, one factor hasn’t modified: This group nonetheless doesn’t get again.
The Clippers rank twenty ninth out of 30 in transition protection, in accordance with Cleansing the Glass. That’s worse than the Indiana Pacers. Whereas their offensive and defensive scores have surged, that stat has remained persistently dangerous.
It’s a shocking stat contemplating the management (championship-winning coach Ty Lue) and defensive expertise (Kawhi Leonard, Paul George) however this isn’t a group that wishes to run, which is basically the primary rule of transition protection.
The Clippers, who’ve the league’s second-oldest roster, rank within the backside eight in tempo and twenty ninth in distance traveled and common velocity, per Second Spectrum knowledge.
Possibly they’ll ratchet up the depth within the playoffs, however that wasn’t the case final yr after they truly obtained slower within the postseason. They’re reliable contenders now and must be motivated to get again in transition if nothing else, however seeing it over the subsequent two months would give Steve Balmer and Co. some peace of thoughts.
Minnesota Timberwolves: Turnovers
The Timberwolves flip the ball over on almost 15% of their possessions. That’s only a hair higher than lottery-bound groups just like the Path Blazers and Pistons. What these turnovers damage is the offense — particularly late in video games.
The Timberwolves are getting out-scored by 8.2 factors per 100 possessions within the ultimate 5 minutes of video games inside 5 factors, per NBA.com, and are turning the ball over on the fourth-highest fee throughout these stretches.
The culprits are Minnesota’s finest gamers. Anthony Edwards leads the Wolves in clutch-time turnovers, Karl-Anthony Cities sees his capturing percentages drop, and Jaden McDaniels leads the group in fouls.
The Timberwolves have been spectacular this season (NBA.com ranked them second of their most up-to-date energy rankings) however the playoffs convey shut video games, and the Timberwolves might want to play as many as they will between now and the tip of the season to get higher in these conditions.
Cleveland Cavaliers: Will playoff schemes damage them?
The Cavaliers have been one of many hottest groups within the league because the flip of the calendar, however they have been sizzling final season too earlier than flaming out within the first spherical of the playoffs.
Nearly as good as lineups with Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen have been on paper, one has to marvel what occurs when opponents scheme towards them within the playoffs.
Groups will have the ability to hedge off both one and make issues tough for Donovan Mitchell, probably grinding Cleveland’s offense to a halt.
Shooters like Max Strus, Dean Wade, Georges Niang and Sam Merrill might be subbed in, however now the Cavs are taking considered one of their finest gamers off the ground.
J.B. Bickerstaff is conscious of this concern, which is why he’s empowered Mobley to be a extra energetic a part of the offense since returning to the lineup.
Right here’s Mobley’s per 36 averages from earlier than and after his left knee harm:
Earlier than: 17.2 PPG, 12.7 FGA (0.5 3PA), 3.3 FTA, 3.1 AST
After: 20.3 PPG, 13.3 FGA (1.7 3PA), 4.3 FTA, 3.4 AST
Every little thing has ticked up, together with his threes and free-throw makes an attempt, since coming again. Bickerstaff is doing that now in hopes of Mobley being able to put strain on defenses within the playoffs.
New York Knicks: Half-court offense
The Knicks have a mean offensive ranking within the half-court and are over-reliant on placing again photographs off opponent misses. Final yr, that they had one of many worst offensive scores of any group within the playoffs and it’s exhausting to see how they’ll be ok this postseason.
The additions of OG Anunoby and Bojan Bogdanovic will assist, however are opponents fearful of these guys? Jalen Brunson has been unimaginable this season and the addition of a pull-up three-pointer ought to loosen issues up within the playoffs, however this group continues to be lacking a second star to take the strain off of him.
Possibly the incremental enhancements of including Brunson’s pull-up recreation, Anunoby, Bogdanovic and Alec Burks are sufficient to beat the dearth of a co-star, but when the Knicks stall within the playoffs it’ll be as a result of they couldn’t rating with groups like Boston and Milwaukee.
Lightning spherical, in no explicit order
Denver Nuggets: There aren’t any questions on what Nikola Jokic and the beginning 5 can do within the playoffs and this group nonetheless ranks within the prime 10 in offensive ranking and defensive ranking regardless of not going full tilt within the common season. However can they change the minutes Bruce Brown and Jeff Inexperienced gave them final postseason in a deeper Western Convention? It’s common to say that Michael Malone can transfer Aaron Gordon to middle when Jokic is off the ground within the playoffs, however who fills in the remainder of the lineup? Peyton Watson? Christian Braun?
Phoenix Suns: As soon as every week, the Suns look unbeatable. Within the different video games, they seem like a finesse group going by the motions. The place’s the oomph with this group? Buying and selling for Royce O’Neale was supposed to assist, but it surely hasn’t precisely translated. The Suns rely an excessive amount of on isolations and lengthy twos, rank close to the underside of the league in drives and photographs on the rim, and there are questions on how Jusuf Nurkic will maintain up in a playoff sequence.
Philadelphia 76ers: If Joel Embiid returns at 80% of what he was earlier than the harm, the 76ers have a shot. Anything, and so they might be S.O.L. The Sixers’ offense has gone in the bathroom over the previous couple of weeks. Lineups with Tyrese Maxey and with out Embiid are scoring a pedestrian 117.2 factors per 100 possessions. Even when Embiid returns, he’ll should play a ton of minutes within the playoffs for the Sixers to have an opportunity, which isn’t preferrred contemplating his historical past of carrying down.
Milwaukee Bucks: After an preliminary surge in defensive ranking after hiring Doc Rivers, the Bucks have settled again to being merely common on that finish and nonetheless rank 18th in halfcourt protection. Patrick Beverley isn’t sufficient to save lots of them.
Dallas Mavericks: Is the protection actual? Earlier than Wednesday’s buzzer beater loss at Cleveland, the Mavericks have received seven of their final eight video games and have the fourth-best protection throughout that stretch. However from October to the tip of January, the Mavericks ranked twenty third in DRTG. They’ve been helped by unfortunate opponent three-point capturing throughout this stretch, however the eye check additionally reveals higher communication and the commerce deadline additions of P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford ought to assist going ahead. Nevertheless it stays to be seen if this unit is sweet sufficient within the playoffs.
Miami Warmth: Their shot profile is problematic. The Warmth rely an excessive amount of on inefficient mid-range photographs and rank close to the underside of the league in photographs on the rim and the offense tends to go lengthy stretches with out scoring as a result of it struggles to generate simple appears. Final season, they wanted Jimmy Butler, now 34, to morph into Michael Jordan for a few sequence and position gamers to catch hearth from three-point vary to make their Finals run. They’re a greater three-point capturing group this season, however they’ll nonetheless probably want to seek out lightning in a bottle to make one other deep run.
Golden State Warriors: Measurement to match up with the West’s prime groups and the dearth of a real No. 2 scorer subsequent to Steph Curry to out-score these groups.
Los Angeles Lakers: Everyone is aware of you want capturing round LeBron James. Everyone besides the Lakers, who rank twenty ninth in three-pointers made per possession.
