I’ll be glued to the TV on Thursday for the debate between Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida and Gov. Gavin Newsom of California on Fox Information. (Not a plug.) It’ll pit a conservative Republican towards a liberal Democrat, a one-time outfielder for Yale towards a one-time pitcher for Santa Clara College, a fighter towards one other fighter. As Fox’s Sean Hannity informed The Occasions, DeSantis and Newsom are “two very sensible, well-educated, extremely opinionated, philosophically totally different governors” who’re “diametrically opposed.”
Nonetheless unsure why these two are debating, however convey out the popcorn!
My contribution to the predebate festivities is the next desk, which highlights some variations between Florida and California. I count on every governor to pitch his state’s virtues, so it’s good to have some knowledge to place up towards their claims. Think about this an financial model of the boxing world’s story of the tape (whereas holding in thoughts that governors deserve neither all of the credit score nor all of the blame for his or her states’ economies).
In a nutshell, California has the sting in median incomes, analysis universities and tech. Florida has cheaper housing, decrease taxes, decrease unemployment, a rising inhabitants and fewer violent crime. Because the desk exhibits, California is extra unequal than Florida. Whereas median family incomes in California are practically a 3rd greater than in Florida, the poverty price can also be greater.
In Okay-12 training, neither state excels. Forty-one % of fourth graders in Florida take a look at at or above the proficiency stage in math, versus 35 % nationally. California is beneath the nationwide common, at 30 %. By eighth grade the states are equally weak, at 23 % at or above proficiency in math, beneath the (disappointing) 26 % nationwide common.
California has a lot greater gasoline costs, partly due to greater taxes, however I hesitate to name {that a} mark towards the state. It’s sensible to tax gasoline closely to account for the harm it does to the surroundings, together with world warming. (How to do this with out penalizing low-income individuals who have to drive loads is a separate query.)
It gained’t shock anybody that the data economic system — which incorporates movement photos, broadcasting and the web — is sort of twice as vital to California as to Florida, or that Florida will get extra of its jobs from amusement, playing and recreation. I used to be slightly stunned to see that California has a lot greater shares of its employment in manufacturing and state and native authorities.
California and Florida do have some issues in widespread. They’re each actually massive: the biggest and third-largest states by inhabitants, with Texas in between. Each even have a number of pure disasters, seashores, orange groves and Disney parks — though Disney isn’t feeling so welcome in Florida since DeSantis began attacking it for wokeness and saying the corporate is in search of “to rob our youngsters of their innocence.”
Each governors additionally perceive the significance of financial growth. In contrast to DeSantis, Newsom has prevented tangling with any C.E.O.s in his state. He has been principally pleasant to enterprise. He has supported the event of synthetic intelligence and self-driving automobiles and pushed again towards tax will increase. He argues that decreasing greenhouse gasoline emissions is sweet for the economic system in addition to the planet.
The strongest argument for Florida is that it continues to draw individuals, albeit at a slower price than up to now century, whereas California misplaced residents in 2021 and 2022. Folks voted with their toes. One issue pushing individuals from California is ridiculously excessive housing costs. The median itemizing worth for single-family houses in October was 62 % greater in California than in Florida. Newsom is chipping away on the housing scarcity and the carefully associated drawback of homelessness, however he has a methods to go.
I’d say the strongest argument for California is that it continues to be a hothouse of innovation in know-how, leisure, medication and different fields. I interviewed Dee Dee Myers, who’s the director of the Governor’s Workplace of Enterprise and Financial Improvement in California. “Greater than 1 / 4 of residents are foreign-born,” she mentioned. “Some are selecting vegatables and fruits. Some are constructing new A.I. fashions. They need to come right here for a purpose. They will do issues that they’ll’t do in different states. It’s not only a welcome, it’s an embrace.”
In his State of the State handle this yr, DeSantis highlighted Florida’s management in a number of standard measures, corresponding to job development, in addition to some unconventional ones: “We rank primary for protections of our residents towards the biomedical safety state, from prohibiting ‘jab or job’ mandates to banning vaccine passports to making sure hospital visitation rights.” He additionally urged Floridians to disregard the “chattering class” and to maintain the compass set to true north (which is tough to do as a result of compasses naturally level to magnetic north, however no matter).
Florida’s conservative enterprise institution worries about Florida turning into extra like California, with greater taxes and extra regulation. “We are able to all agree that with companies fleeing high-cost states and discovering their method to the Sunshine State to do enterprise, we should work to ensure Florida stays Florida,” the Florida Chamber of Commerce says. Likewise, Californians appear to be pleased with California remaining California.
“And by no means the twain shall meet,” as Rudyard Kipling put it. Besides, I assume, for Thursday on Fox.
Elsewhere: What a New Lease Index Exhibits
The Bureau of Labor Statistics formally measures rental inflation by averaging the funds of all tenants — individuals who simply moved in and individuals who have lived in the identical place for years. An index that appears simply at new tenants offers a greater have a look at the newest pricing developments. Zillow, for instance, has the Zillow Noticed Lease Index. Now the Bureau of Labor Statistics itself has gotten into the sport with a New Tenant Lease Index, an experimental measure that’s being reported quarterly beginning with the third quarter of 2023, which was launched Nov. 22. The company says its model is “a rigorously constructed, nationally consultant random pattern” and that it controls for getting older of the housing inventory and paperwork what utilities are and aren’t included within the lease.
This chart exhibits that the brand new tenant index peaked within the second quarter of 2022 and has come down sharply. The all tenant index — the one included within the Shopper Value Index — rose later and is coming down later as properly. That’s as a result of it takes time for the newest pricing developments to filter by the whole rental market.
Quote of the Day
“You understand what which means after they pay you minimal wage? You understand what they’re making an attempt to let you know? It’s like, ‘Hey, if I may pay you much less, I’d. But it surely’s towards the legislation.’”
— Chris Rock, “Born Suspect” album (1991)
