There’s quite a lot of hoopla about age nowadays. However not for me. [GUNSHOT] See that man within the crimson shirt? That’s Allan Lichtman, 77-year-old Allan Lichtman. And he’s racing within the qualifiers for the Senior Olympics. However there’s one other sort of race Allan’s simply as certified for. “Allan Lichtman.” “Allan Lichtman.” “Professor Allan Lichtman.” “Who has accurately predicted—” “—virtually each presidential election since 1984.” And as we speak Allan Lichtman is able to inform us who’s going to win in 2024. [MUSIC PLAYING] You see, you could assume Allan’s only a jock. “Properly, I used to be a steeplechase champion within the Seventies.” “His identify is Dr. Allan Lichtman.” However he’s truly sort of a nerd. A historical past professor and a quiz present champion. Nowadays, he’s on a unique sort of successful streak. To make his presidential predictions, Allan’s mannequin ignores the polls and the pundits. “It hinges on 13 keys that I developed in 1981 with my geophysicist pal, Vladimir Keilis-Borok. It’s based mostly on 120 years of presidential election outcomes earlier than then.” Instructed you. He’s a nerd. Allan’s mannequin was one of many few that referred to as it for Trump in 2016. “Donald Trump goes to win.” And in 2020, Allan received it proper once more. “Trump will lose the White Home. The race was tight, however the keys have been proper.” So let’s get to how these keys truly work. “They’re 13 big-picture, true-false questions that faucet into the power and efficiency of the White Home occasion. And solely two keys have something to do with the candidates.” However Allan, 2024 is an unprecedented election 12 months. Can your 13 keys actually name it proper? “The keys completely will work. They’re the fixed northern star of political prediction.” All proper. Time to run these keys and discover out who would be the subsequent president of the US, in line with Allan. “However first, let me develop into one thing somewhat extra comfy.” [GUNSHOT] No. 1, the White Home occasion gained Home seats between midterm elections. “The Democrats did higher than anticipated in 2022, however they nonetheless misplaced Home seats. So the hot button is false.” Keep in mind, a false key’s good for Trump. No. 2, the incumbency key. The sitting president is working for re-election. “Biden withdrew from the race, costing the Democrats this key. It’s false.” Wait, you’re saying it could have helped the Democrats if Biden stayed in? “If Biden stayed in, they’d have salvaged this one key. That’s all.” Hmm, OK. Shifting on, for now. No. 3, the White Home occasion prevented a main contest. “The Democrats lastly received good and united overwhelmingly behind Vice President Harris. So the hot button is true.” A real key. That strikes Harris off the beginning block. No. 4, there’s no third-party challenger. “R.F.Ok. Jr. has dropped out of the race and no different third- occasion candidate is anyplace near the ten % polling threshold wanted to show this key. It’s true.” 4 keys in and it’s neck and neck. Let’s maintain going. No. 5, the short-term economic system is robust. “Look, regardless of all of the free speak about a so-called vibecession, the economic system will not be in recession. So this key’s true.” No. 6, long-term financial progress throughout this presidential time period has been at the very least nearly as good because the final two phrases. “Progress in the course of the Biden time period is way forward of progress in the course of the earlier two phrases. So this key’s clearly true.” No. 7, the White Home has made main modifications to nationwide coverage. “Rejoining the Paris Accords on local weather change, the CHIPS invoice, the infrastructure invoice, the Inflation Discount and local weather change invoice. Clearly, the hot button is true.” No. 8, there isn’t a sustained social unrest in the course of the time period. “There have been sporadic protests, however nothing approaching the huge, sustained social unrest wanted to show this key. So it’s true.” However faculties are simply going again to session. With new protests, couldn’t this key flip? “Sure, there are quite a lot of protesters upset with Biden’s insurance policies within the Center East, however now, with Harris, not Biden, entrance and middle, that has dampened social unrest.” No. 9, the White Home is untainted by scandal. “Oh, my favourite key, the scandal key. And Republicans have been attempting for years to pin a scandal on President Biden and are available up empty. So the hot button is true.” However come on, Allan. Biden’s horrific debate efficiency, questions on his age, Hunter Biden, doesn’t any of that depend? “No. There must be at the very least some bipartisan recognition of precise corruption that implicates the president himself and never a member of the family. So the important thing stays true.” So two false and 7 true up to now. Wanting fairly good for the Democrats. We’ve got 4 keys left, all of which must be false for Trump to have a path. No. 10, the incumbent occasion candidate is charismatic. “This can be a very excessive threshold key. You need to be a once-in- a-generational, broadly inspirational candidate. Harris has not met that normal. So this key’s false.” No. 11, the challenger is uncharismatic. “Some individuals assume Donald Trump is a god, however he solely appeals to a slender base. In order that key’s true.” However wait, which means — “The Democrats will maintain on to the White Home and Kamala Harris would be the subsequent president of the US.” However wait a sec, Allan. We nonetheless have two keys left. The international coverage keys? “You’re proper. International coverage is hard, and these keys might flip. The Biden administration is deeply invested within the conflict in Gaza which is a humanitarian catastrophe endlessly. However even when each international coverage keys flipped false, that will imply that there have been solely 5 unfavorable keys, which might not be sufficient for Donald Trump to regain the White Home.” So I suppose which means you’re standing by your prediction. “Kamala Harris would be the subsequent president of the US. At the very least, that’s my prediction for this race. However the final result is as much as you. So get out and vote.” Properly, I suppose that settles that race. However what in regards to the one we began with? “Properly, I gained some medals. I didn’t get harm. And I certified for the 2025 Nationwide Senior Olympics. Not unhealthy for a 77-year-old, huh?” [MUSIC PLAYING]
