Rising up in Mexico throughout the Nineteen Eighties, I used to be taught that the US was an enemy to be feared, an imperialist energy that had stolen the higher half of our nation. For many years, generations of Mexicans like me had been spoon fed anti-American views at school.
That mind-set slowly started to alter after the North American Free Commerce Settlement went into impact in 1994. It led to excessive ranges of financial cooperation and cultural appreciation. Mexico grew to become a high vacationer vacation spot for its northern pals. State visits by U.S. presidents became a trigger for celebration as an alternative of concern, and for a lot of Mexicans, the ugly American grew to become an indispensable associate. I started to boast that my three youngsters, born to a Mexican mom and Canadian father, and with an American grandfather, had been symbols of North American integration.
However as we speak, because of President Trump’s on-again-off-again tariffs and aggressively anti-Mexico stance, the 2 international locations danger sliding again to viewing one another as enemies. By browbeating Mexico and inflicting the ache of a protracted commerce struggle, he dangers alienating a essential ally and buddy. If Mr. Trump stirs up historic anti-American sentiments, and loses Mexico’s cooperation, he received’t get the border management and struggle towards cartels that he needs. Alienating Mexicans is self-defeating.
President Claudia Sheinbaum of Mexico stated as a lot in her response to the US’ 25 % tariffs on Mexican imports. “Nobody wins with this choice,” she stated at a information convention on the morning of March 4. That night, Mr. Trump addressed Congress; the American president referred to immigration as an invasion, and used bellicose language about the necessity to combat a struggle on Mexican drug cartels. By no means thoughts that the Mexican authorities simply days earlier had despatched cupboard members to Washington to debate safety and cooperation, and that Marco Rubio expressed appreciation for Mexico’s actions to safe the widespread border. Mr. Trump moved the purpose posts once more, suggesting Mexico had not completed sufficient, and Ms. Sheinbaum was frolicked to dry.
Ms. Sheinbaum has bent over backward to appease Mr. Trump and keep away from the imposition of tariffs. She despatched 10,000 Mexican troops to the border, closed down a major variety of fentanyl labs and expatriated 29 cartel leaders to the US. She allowed American spy planes and drones to fly into Mexican territory. In response, the White Home has continued to denigrate a buddy and an ally.
Mr. Trump’s govt order to rename the Gulf of Mexico because the Gulf of America was additionally considered as an affront. Ms. Sheinbaum despatched a letter to Google, explaining the historic and authorized roots of the identify that Mexicans cherish. (Presently, customers based mostly in the US see the identify “Gulf of America,” and people based mostly in Mexico see “Gulf of Mexico.” Individuals elsewhere see each names).
All of this can be a disgrace, as a result of so many features of the previous are threatened. Together with the start of hotter relations, NAFTA, now the United States-Mexico-Canada Settlement, introduced financial advantages for each American and Mexican customers, reducing costs for items produced on either side of the border. Mexico became a producing powerhouse and an integral a part of provide chains that introduced higher and cheaper merchandise to the U.S. market. Mexican avocados and tomatoes grew to become staples in American households, whereas Mexicans grew to become avid purchasers of American merchandise, with Walmarts and Costcos spreading all through the nation.
Free commerce additionally had important political ramifications in Mexico. Beforehand, the nation’s financial system had suffered the brunt of disastrous populist insurance policies that led to many years of financial crises. Throughout the Nineteen Eighties and early Nineteen Nineties, recurring cycles of devaluation, inflation and large-scale job losses spurred immigration to the US. NAFTA helped carry an finish to this instability by means of the creation of guidelines and laws that prevented future Mexican presidents from enacting protectionist commerce boundaries to attain political factors. U.S. funding, restricted previously by nationalist laws, was welcomed.
Higher relations led to extra collaboration on a number of fronts, together with efforts to manage unlawful immigration and the event of the 2007 Merida Initiative, supposed to collectively fight the drug trafficking and violence that worsened in Mexico on the flip of the twenty first century.
Free commerce was not with out its downsides, most significantly the lack of U.S. manufacturing jobs as firms relocated to Mexico. However Mr. Trump’s dream of forcing factories again to the US by imposing tariffs reveals how little he understands the depth of North American integration. The declines within the U.S. inventory markets underscore how firms deeply invested in commerce and provide chains with Mexico are reacting to Mr. Trump’s transfer and the specter of an financial recession.
The weaponization of tariffs to extract concessions, together with accepting the deportation of migrants from different international locations and pressuring Mexico into shunning Chinese language funding, is a every day menace. However Mexico has little room to maneuver, given its dependence on the U.S. marketplace for 80 % of its exports. Based on many predictions, Mr. Trump’s tariffs will power the nation’s financial system right into a tailspin.
And whereas Canada has readied itself with retaliatory tariffs, Mexico is in a sophisticated place. Leftist factions of Ms. Sheinbaum’s social gathering may stress her to take a extra combative stance towards Mr. Trump, or she may danger being considered as weak. However a extra confrontational place dangers inciting Mr. Trump’s wrath, with unexpected penalties. A current ballot revealed within the newspaper El Financiero discovered that Mexicans are more and more pessimistic about relations with the US, with optimistic views dropping to 33 % in January 2025 from 61 % in August 2024. One other ballot additionally revealed a 29-point drop — to 24 % in January 2025 from 53 % in March 2023 — in Mexican assist for collaboration with the US to combat organized crime.
So who would profit from a United States-Mexico divorce? Russia and China, for a begin. Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, would love nothing greater than to see a drug-ridden and unstable Mexico more and more at odds with the US, provided that his purpose has been to extend Russia’s sway within the International South. And China is poised to benefit from funding alternatives, markets and geopolitical affect in a rustic that the US used to view as a detailed buddy.
Mr. Trump might imagine that alienating Mexico is a small value to pay to make America nice once more. However given the necessity for collaboration to deal with a porous border, entrenched cartel exercise and the continued stream of fentanyl, his bullying may backfire. Mr. Trump’s purpose of “America First” may lead to not greatness however to only “America Alone” in an more and more hostile neighborhood.
Denise Dresser is a professor of political science on the Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México in Mexico Metropolis, a senior affiliate on the Heart for Strategic and Worldwide Research and a school affiliate at Johns Hopkins College’s SNF Agora Institute.
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