For quarter-hour, all the pieces was positive for Donald Trump. He was successful the controversy, in actual fact. The opening questions had been concerning the economic system, price of residing, and commerce coverage. He was crisp. He made the distinction he wanted to make.
Kamala Harris began wobbly. Shaky. Prevented questions and taking any accountability for inflation or explaining how she will be able to assault Trump for his tariffs coverage when the Biden-Harris administration has left a few of his tariffs in place. She even spent a while posing in lower photographs along with her hand on her chin, clearly attempting to create a meme-able second.
She was all assault and evasion, and it wasn’t working for her.
However then the immigration query occurred, and the remainder of the controversy went off the rails for Trump. Extremely, Trump, on his bread-and-butter subject, allowed himself to be sidetracked by a taunt from Harris about his rallies.
Harris was requested instantly why the Biden-Harris administration waited till six months earlier than the election to do something about immigration. She ignored it and as a substitute taunted Trump and mentioned individuals had been bored at his speeches and had been leaving early.
And he simply couldn’t stand it. As a substitute of nailing her on one in all her weakest points, his voice rose, and he as a substitute provided a spirited protection of his rallies.
And from that time ahead Harris largely dictated the stream of the controversy.
The moderators for ABC did come ready to maintain Trump in test, repeatedly fact-checking him whereas ignoring a few of Harris’ whoppers. (She repeated the “massacre” lie as soon as once more, and the moderators allowed it, for example. When Trump used that time period, he was speaking concerning the American automotive business and what would occur underneath continued Democratic insurance policies as a substitute of his.)
To most Republicans, it felt like Trump was enjoying one thing of a highway sport with house cooking from domestically employed refs. One Republican texted me that the controversy felt extra like a trial of Trump with three prosecutors as a substitute of a debate between two candidates.
It did really feel to me just like the moderators had been much more ready to push and fact-check Trump with little curiosity in doing the identical to Harris.
However that was predictable, and you may’t complain concerning the refs whenever you aren’t making your individual leap photographs. And for Trump, it’s no excuse for his getting sidetracked (at the very least till his closing assertion) and failing to make the central case that should be made: If you need change, you may’t depart the identical individuals in cost.
Debates characteristic numerous questions and matters, however to win them you must drive a theme. This previous weekend’s New York Instances ballot laid naked what that theme ought to have been for Trump — be the candidate of change. Fortunately for Trump, he’s already seen that far more than Harris.
I’m unsure the controversy modified that equation; Harris is, in spite of everything, the sitting vice chairman and she or he evaded most each query about her administration’s file, certainly very noticeable to voters who’re fairly sad with the final three and a half years. However Trump missed a number of alternatives to steer the dialog again to a theme that works for him.
This was Trump’s seventh presidential debate. Six instances now the snap polls have judged him to have been the loser. In 2016, he “misplaced” all three debates to Hillary Clinton earlier than successful the election. In 2020, he “misplaced” each debates to Biden after which misplaced the election.
After the controversy Tuesday night time, the snap polls confirmed a powerful Harris debate victory, 63% to 37%. Thoughts you, that is simply debate watchers. One factor Trump relies on for victory this 12 months is politically disengaged voters (particularly males), and so they doubtless weren’t watching this carefully if in any respect
Trump is Trump. We all know him. We love him. We hate him. There’s nary an individual on this nation who doesn’t have a direct and infrequently visceral opinion of him.
So a debate is unlikely to vary his picture.
However for Harris, she doubtless cleared the competency bar at the same time as she averted taking accountability for the Biden-Harris failures. Polling within the days forward will inform us extra about whether or not she moved skeptical swing voters. Trump’s picture could also be immovable, however Harris’ just isn’t. She may even see a bit bump out of this engagement.
However the enduring query of the election is whether or not the American individuals will punish Harris for the Biden-Harris administration. Or will they see her as sufficient of a unique particular person and provides her one other likelihood to get it proper. She portrayed herself as “generational change” in the course of the debate (she is simply 59, in contrast with Trump’s 78, even when she clearly doesn’t signify a lot of a coverage change).
The present polls present Trump in a robust place to win, definitely stronger than he ever was in 2016 and 2020 at this level within the marketing campaign. A tied race nationally virtually definitely means Trump will win the electoral school.
However the debate provided him maybe his finest likelihood to cement his place within the marketing campaign, and, like his considerably disappointing conference speech, he missed a second.
Scott Jennings is a contributing author to Opinion, a former particular assistant to President George W. Bush and a senior CNN political commentator. @ScottJenningsKY
