Ever for the reason that Democrats pulled their switcheroo with Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, the media has been making an attempt to behave like this was completely regular and that there’s super pleasure for Harris.
It isn’t regular, and any bump Harris has gotten in assist is probably going nothing greater than a sugar excessive which can fade shortly as voters are reminded of her file and her persona.
James Piereson is a political scholar and analyst for the Manhattan Institute. He lately wrote a column evaluating Kamala Harris to failed 1988 presidential candidate Michael Dukakis, however one of the crucial fascinating elements of the column is a passage the place he predicts the result of the 2024 election.
Piereson writes at The New Criterion (bolding added for emphasis):
Kamala Harris is now having fun with this sort of second as she racks up endorsements in anticipation of the Democratic Nationwide Conference in August. Democrats and media allies are busy portraying her as a contemporary face (she isn’t) and a youthful candidate (additionally uncertain) who will electrify the nation, provoke ladies and minority voters, and trounce Donald Trump within the fall marketing campaign…
The honeymoon won’t final very lengthy. Trump will reach portray Harris as an out-of-touch San Francisco leftist, a lot as Bush portrayed Dukakis as a Massachusetts liberal. Trump will discover loads of working room with that marketing campaign, as there may be hardly a left-wing trigger that she has not embraced…
However the euphoria immediately, Trump will win the election by six factors—forty-nine to forty-three p.c—profitable 339 electoral votes, together with the entire so-called swing states, plus the Democratic-leaning states of Virginia, Minnesota, and New Hampshire. Republicans will choose up three or 4 seats within the Senate and maybe twenty seats within the Home, giving them protected majorities in each chambers. This can give Trump the margins he must implement an excellent piece of his agenda in 2025 and 2026.
This column is at present one of the crucial learn articles on Actual Clear Politics and for good causes. Piereson makes some excellent factors based mostly on historical past and analysis.
