President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia will maintain his year-end information convention on Thursday, resuming an annual custom at a vital second for the conflict his forces are waging in Ukraine.
The December information convention has historically been a wide-ranging marathon that gives reporters a uncommon — albeit stage-managed — likelihood to pose probably tough questions. Mr. Putin finds himself in a lot better form than a yr earlier, when he skipped the annual ritual amid setbacks in Ukraine.
Right here’s a have a look at the matters Mr. Putin is predicted to handle.
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Mr. Putin is nearing the third yr of his invasion of Ukraine ready of relative energy. Bolstered by dense defenses, Russian forces have fended off Ukraine’s counteroffensive this yr and at the moment are attacking in a number of areas alongside the entrance line. Russia’s navy manufacturing is ramping up, and the military — regardless of very excessive casualties — has been in a position to regain its footing with out resorting, to date, to a brand new wave of mobilization.
Extra broadly, the impasse over navy help for Ukraine within the U.S. Congress is making Mr. Putin’s long-term wager that his nation will outlast adversaries seem extra practical. Most unbiased navy analysts consider that with out extra American provides, Russia may begin to make bigger positive factors subsequent yr.
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Mr. Putin has made the resilience of his nation’s wartime financial system a serious speaking level in latest public speeches. Regardless of a flurry of worldwide sanctions, the Russian financial system has regained its prewar dimension and is predicted to develop by about 3 p.c this yr, as a major improve in navy spending stimulates manufacturing, whereas labor shortages power wages to rise.
However document state spending has come at a value: Inflation has climbed sharply for the reason that spring, excessive rates of interest are stifling personal funding, firms are struggling to seek out employees and the financial system is changing into extra depending on unstable oil revenues. However for now, Mr. Putin appears glad to tout robust headline figures, which assist his broad narrative that the worst financial results of the conflict are over.
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The information convention is probably going to offer Mr. Putin with many foils for certainly one of his favourite themes: presenting his international adversaries as hypocritical and decadent. .
Mr. Putin may additionally look to take advantage of the West’s social divisions, presenting himself as a champion of socially conservative causes that resonate with many voters world wide.
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Mr. Putin has largely succeeded in resigning the Russian public to the conflict and to a chronic standoff with the West. Organized resistance to the conflict is waning amid escalating repression, and Mr. Putin has just lately cracked down on the ultranationalist minority that had criticized his conflict technique.
Whether or not Mr. Putin can maintain public apathy into subsequent yr is unsure. Even when American assist to Ukraine wanes, most analysts consider Mr. Putin’s forces are unlikely to attain a decisive breakthrough with out one other wave of mobilization, which might be deeply unpopular.
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With Russia’s political system underneath his agency management, Mr. Putin is extensively anticipated to win one other six-year time period as president within the election in March. Within the absence of a real competitors amongst candidates, the vote will most definitely flip right into a referendum about Mr. Putin’s determination to invade Ukraine, and he’ll in all probability use the end result so as to add a veneer of legitimacy to the conflict and to trumpet Russians’ approval of his actions.
If he had been re-elected and served out one other time period, by 2030 Mr. Putin would grow to be the longest-serving Russian chief for the reason that Empress Catherine the Nice within the 18th century, surpassing all of the Soviet rulers, together with Stalin.
Ivan Nechepurenko contributed reporting.
