The time had come to bend the knee — or not less than bend to actuality.
A delegation of Russian diplomats arrived final Tuesday in a caravan of white SUVs for a summit in Damascus and an unenviable task: lay the groundwork for Russia to maintain its army bases in Syria, lower than two months after rebels had toppled Moscow’s most well-liked strongman, Bashar al-Assad.
To take action, the delegation would wish to win over a folks the Russian army had bombed ruthlessly, serving to Mr. al-Assad, for years.
Awaiting them was Ahmed al-Shara, who had survived a decade of Russian airstrikes to emerge as Syria’s new interim chief. He stood within the presidential palace and confronted the Kremlin’s envoys for a long-awaited reckoning.
The talks that ensued, the primary between Moscow and Damascus for the reason that finish of the almost 14-year struggle, ended unresolved. However they marked the start of probably drawn-out negotiations about what position, if any, Russia will play in postwar Syria, having misplaced its bid to maintain Mr. al-Assad in energy.
The assembly demonstrated the type of geopolitical horse-trading that has begun within the aftermath of Syria’s civil struggle — with the potential to remake the Center East. World powers are jockeying for affect, as Syria’s fledgling management tries to win legitimacy, safety and help via disciplined and stony-eyed realpolitik.
“I believe the overall air in Damascus is, ‘We Syrians don’t want a combat with anybody at this level, together with our former enemies,’” mentioned Charles Lister, a senior fellow on the Center East Institute in Washington. “So de-escalation and pragmatism are the names of the sport.”
Nonetheless, it was the Russians who have been requested to make concessions. Mr. al-Shara emphasised that any new relations with Moscow “should handle previous errors,” and requested compensation for the destruction Russia triggered, his authorities mentioned in a press release.
He additionally demanded that Moscow hand over Mr. al-Assad and his prime associates to face justice, based on two officers within the caretaker authorities with data of the assembly.
President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, a former spy who prizes loyalty, nearly definitely wouldn’t agree. Requested the day after the assembly whether or not Mr. al-Shara requested Mr. al-Assad’s extradition, Mr. Putin’s spokesman declined to remark.
Mr. al-Shara in any other case appeared surprisingly amenable to cooperating with Russia, versus Iran, Mr. al-Assad’s different key ally, which the brand new authorities in Damascus have mentioned is now not welcome in Syria.
In an interview with the BBC in late December, Mr. al-Shara cited Syria’s “longstanding strategic relations” with Moscow and mentioned he was “not in a rush to get Russia out of Syria, as some folks think about.”
He famous, in a separate interview with Saudi state tv, that Russia has equipped the Syrian army’s arms for many years and supplies consultants who run Syria’s energy vegetation. The implication: Damascus might have Russia sooner or later.
“They’re completely determined for legitimacy and worldwide assist,” Mr. Lister mentioned of Syria’s new leaders. “Inflicting any massive worldwide rupture could be the worst factor they might contemplate doing.”
Past potential deliveries of oil and grain from Russia, what Mr. al-Shara wants is for Moscow to not play spoiler in his effort to reconstruct Syria and construct a authorities, mentioned Hanna Notte, an analyst on the James Martin Heart for Nonproliferation Research.
“This can be a nation that’s now, politically talking, being constructed from the ashes,” she mentioned. She identified that the Russians are everlasting members of the U.N. Safety Council and will impede Mr. al-Shara in some ways, ought to they determine to not be “politically benevolent.”
Mr. al-Shara himself has famous Russia is taken into account the world’s second-most highly effective army, and mentioned his newly fashioned authorities isn’t able to oppose main powers.
On the assembly, the place Russia was represented by its prime Center East envoy, Deputy International Minister Mikhail Bogdanov, neither aspect seemed to be in a rush to make any massive selections. What the remainder of the world, and particularly the USA, European Union, Turkey and Saudi Arabia, demand from Syria’s new leaders may additionally affect Russia’s destiny.
In current weeks, a flurry of diplomats from these and different international locations have arrived in Damascus to satisfy Mr. al-Shara.
Russia desires to maintain its naval base on the Mediterranean at Tartus, which dates to the Soviet period. It additionally seeks to keep up the Hmeimim Air Base exterior Latakia, which Moscow has used as a provide and stopover hub for expeditionary operations in Africa. Up to now, the brand new Syrian authorities haven’t mentioned no, and Russia has stayed put, regardless of shifting materiel off the bases.
Syria’s pragmatic rhetoric has been reciprocated in Moscow.
After years of defending the Assad regime on the battlefield and on the United Nations, Russian leaders have spun the lack of their longtime ally as a win and prolonged an olive department to the brand new authorities, whom Moscow had lengthy denounced as terrorists.
“I’d name it improvised opportunism,” Ms. Notte mentioned. “It’s a fairly outstanding pivot.”
Mr. Putin, talking in December at his annual information convention, mentioned Russia had received, moderately than misplaced, in Syria, as a result of Moscow had prevented the nation from turning into a terrorist enclave. He mentioned he had but to even see Mr. al-Assad, although he dedicated to assembly him in some unspecified time in the future. It’s unclear if they’ve met since.
The Russian chief provided the usage of Russia’s bases to ship humanitarian help to the Syrian folks, who simply weeks earlier than had been weathering Russian airstrikes.
He would hold Russia’s presence there, he mentioned, provided that Moscow’s pursuits coincided with these of the political forces that had taken management.
On the United Nations, the Russian ambassador, Vasily Nebenzya, mentioned in January that these forces have been “behaving fairly competently.” The friendship between Russia and Syria, he emphasised, is “not related to any regime.”
The navy go well with and tie Mr. al-Shara wore to the assembly with the Russian envoys belied his previous as an Al Qaeda fighter turned Islamist insurgent chief. So did his nonconfrontational rhetoric within the run-up to the talks, and his professed willingness to make good with former foes, together with the USA.
Mr. al-Shara welcomed a prime State Division delegation in December, regardless of having as soon as frolicked in Iraq imprisoned by U.S. forces and having been designated a terrorist by the U.S. authorities with a $10 million bounty. (Washington withdrew the bounty after the talks.)
Mr. al-Shara wants sanctions aid from the USA, in addition to Washington’s assist on the Safety Council, for Syria to start an financial restoration and entry worldwide help.
The USA additionally nonetheless has troops on the bottom, backing Kurdish-led forces in northeast Syria that Mr. al-Shara doesn’t management. He has said his want to maintain the nation entire, which would come with that territory, the place Washington backed native forces to destroy the Islamic State.
European officers have visited Damascus and provided a path to sanctions aid however have made clear that they might disapprove of the retention of a Russian army presence within the nation.
How the Trump administration will method the query is unclear. In December, because the Assad regime fell, Mr. Trump mentioned on social media that the struggle in Syria was “not our combat” and that the USA ought to don’t have anything to do with it.
The query of Mr. al-Assad’s destiny provides to the fragile nature of the negotiations between Moscow and Damascus.
Mr. al-Shara remains to be making an attempt to determine legitimacy among the many Syrian folks and disparate Syrian teams, and placing a cope with Russia whereas it’s harboring the strongman who killed so many Syrians may undercut his standing. That’s one motive delaying any dedication to Moscow may make sense.
Mr. Lister described the request for Mr. al-Assad as a maximalist opening demand, attribute of early-stage negotiations.
“It hits the mark when it comes to laying down the precept: ‘We could also be prepared to be pragmatic at this time, however we’ve not forgotten historical past,’” Mr. Lister mentioned. “Russia’s complicity in all method of struggle crimes in Syria is just not one thing Syrians will likely be forgetting anytime quickly.”
Inside Syria, Mr. al-Shara remains to be pursuing remnants of the Assad regime’s pressure to consolidate management; Moscow may make that process tougher.
Although the lack of the bases in Syria would dent Russia’s energy within the area, Moscow doubtlessly has different choices. The Kremlin’s backing of the army ruler of jap Libya may provide an alternate location for a Russian naval base on the Mediterranean. Already, Russia has been utilizing Libyan air bases for flights.
The standing of the Russian bases in Syria is probably not resolved quickly.
“I believe that each side profit from delaying the negotiations on the destiny of the bases,” mentioned Anton Mardasov, a Russian army affairs knowledgeable specializing in Syria. “Moscow can thus protect its picture, because it has already managed to carry out so long as potential and never depart instantly after the autumn of the Assad regime, and Damascus can for now negotiate the lifting of sanctions”
