NO INTEREST IN ESCALATION
First, Iran has little interest in additional escalation.
This was already obvious in Iran’s strike on Israel, which was carried out in a approach that offered ample early warning to Israel and its allies. This allowed them to successfully neuter the assault by taking down all however a number of of the 300 projectiles launched.
Iran’s reasoning behind that is probably complicated. The regime in Tehran need to keep away from a direct confrontation with a regional rival that has superior army capabilities – together with nuclear weapons – and is backed by among the world’s strongest militaries. However Iran’s personal allies, Russia and China specifically, will even probably have communicated their disinterest in a full-scale escalation.
Something that distracts from the struggle in Gaza and eases stress on Israel on that entrance, together with from its Western allies, can’t be in Iran’s curiosity both.
The rising isolation of Mr Netanyahu’s authorities is definitely extra advantageous to Tehran: It drives a welcome wedge between Israel and the West, and it limits the prospects of rapprochement between Israel and the Arab states. Saudi Arabia stays Iran’s different main regional rival regardless of final 12 months’s China-brokered deal to normalise ties between Tehran and Riyadh.
