After greater than a decade of intense lobbying, Somalia has been admitted into the East African Group (EAC). After ratification by the Somali Federal Parliament, the membership will change into official.
The applying course of, began by former President Sharif Sheikh Ahmed in 2011, had been lengthy and arduous with some member states allegedly hesitant to deliver Somalia into the fold.
The method lastly yielded fruit this 12 months after the present president, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, appointed a particular envoy to speed up the admission course of not lengthy after he got here into workplace in August 2022 for a second time. Mohamud, who was additionally president from 2012 to 2017, was a key backer of regional integration throughout his first time period.
“We’re a big nation within the area which might contribute quite a bit, and we can even profit from them,” Mohamud stated as he landed in Mogadishu after an EAC summit in Arusha, Tanzania, the place Somalia was admitted into the bloc on Friday.
The president has stated Somalia’s membership can even profit EAC members Burundi, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Kenya, Rwanda, South Sudan, Uganda and Tanzania.
Critics of the transfer stated the admission of Somalia, a rustic of greater than 17 million individuals and an extended historical past of battle, might introduce safety challenges for the bloc, which now has a mixed inhabitants of greater than 300 million individuals, or a fourth of Africa’s inhabitants.
Nevertheless, consultants argued that Somalia has taken vital strides in its combat towards the armed group al-Shabab and level to safety challenges in different EAC members such because the DRC, the place not less than 120 armed teams are preventing in its risky east, and South Sudan, which has been out and in of a civil warfare since earlier than its independence.
Challenges and opportunities
The EAC was stablished in 2000 and is headquartered in Arusha. Its mission has been to foster economic growth by, among other things, eliminating customs duties among member states. It established a common market in 2010.
Somalia’s primary economic activities are livestock and agriculture, and they have proven to be highly vulnerable to climate change. Livestock remains Somalia’s main export, followed by bananas, fish, hides and skin, and charcoal, but the country is believed to have potential offshore resources like oil and gas.
Since 1991 when Somalia’s government collapsed, leading to three decades of political instability and the rise of al-Shabab, the country’s trade volume with its neighbours shrank rapidly.
Still, analysts said, Somalia, which has Africa’s longest coastline and an estimated two million citizens in the diaspora, is ripe for economic integration with its neighbours.
“I think EAC countries also see Somalia’s … successful investments by Somalis in EAC countries,” Mohamed Abdi Waare, political analyst and a former president of Somalia’s Hirshabelle state, told Al Jazeera. “They also see its vast blue economic potential in its long coastline, the opportunities to participate in the reconstruction of Somalia and to leverage Somalia links with its diaspora, its links with the Middle East and its strategic location.”
“With massive natural resources, the rebuilding and reconstruction boom after the defeat of al-Shabab, Somalia will provide an excellent opportunity for regional investment in its blue economy, its infrastructural rehabilitation and its real estate and construction industries,” he added.
However, not everyone is on board with the integration, even within the Horn of Africa nation.
Friday’s announcement has become contentious among Somalis. Many have described the integration as rash or too early.
One of them is Abdirahman Abdishakur, the presidential envoy for humanitarian coordination, who said EAC membership is different from that in other bodies like the African Union (AU), Intergovernmental Authority on Development, Arab League and Organisation of Islamic Conference.
“We understand that all [those bodies were] fashioned for political, peace and growth cooperation, however the EAC bloc is totally different and was primarily fashioned for financial and commerce functions,” Abdishakur, who can be a member of parliament, instructed Al Jazeera. “For Somalia, we don’t have items, companies and financial ideology to deliver to the desk.”
“Nearly each Somali middle-class [citizen] purchased an house and has their household in Nairobi, and the true property is booming, which alerts [an] benefit for Kenya’s financial progress and different nations need the identical,” he stated. “It’s an added benefit [to member states] for Somalia to hitch the bloc, however we’re not gaining a lot.”
He added that Somalia might be higher off becoming a member of the bloc sooner or later if the nation’s management might present assets, vitality and concepts to stabilise the nation first.
There are additionally different challenges.
After its accession, Somalia is required to place parts of the treaty into legislation inside six months of signing the doc.
In a report launched this month, the Heritage Institute, a Mogadishu-based assume tank, burdened that this might be robust to do and thus hinder Somalia from being an efficient member of the EAC. This, the report stated, was because of the nation’s poor observe document on governance, human rights, rule of legislation and socioeconomics. Moreover, “fixed friction between the Somali federal authorities and member states” might additionally hinder easy ratification of the treaty in parliament, the report stated.
“Any infrastructure that Somalia lacks will solely delay the a part of the mixing for which such infrastructure is required,” Bashir Sheikh-Ali, a senior authorized fellow on the Heritage Institute and the creator of the report, instructed Al Jazeera.
For example, the EAC expects accomplice states to have dispute decision boards for interstate issues inside the bloc, Sheikh-Ali stated. With out an unbiased judiciary, Somalia could not have the ability to absolutely take part or profit from the bloc’s binding resolutions, he stated.
“If the Somali authorities takes the creation of an unbiased judiciary significantly, Somalia may have a shot at having a full-fledged authorities, which ought to result in a greater surroundings for individuals in all features of their lives,” he added.
The institute advised in its report that the nation create a complete danger minimisation plan and safe a chronic interval of treaty implementation.
Battle decision
In recent times, relations have soured between Somalia and its autonomous area of Somaliland over the disputed metropolis of Las Anod. Among the EAC members have a diplomatic presence in each territories, and it stays to be seen how the bloc would assist maintain the peace after Hargiesa, capital of the self-declared Republic of Somaliland, beforehand shunned Kampala’s effort to mediate with it and Mogadishu.
Beforehand, Somalia was embroiled in a diplomatic rift with Kenya – the one bloc member that instantly borders it – over a maritime dispute. The previous requested the Worldwide Courtroom of Justice (ICJ) to rule on the case after out-of-court negotiations between the 2 nations failed.
Though Kenya refused to acknowledge the ICJ ruling in 2021 that favoured Somalia, consultants stated the 2 nations now have a platform to resolve any future disputes.
“For the Kenyan facet, there was no avenue to resolve the problem, however now after the admission of Somalia to the East African Group, there may be hope any future dispute between the 2 nations may be resolved by the mechanisms of the financial bloc,” stated Abdullahi Abdi, an analyst on Horn of Africa affairs.
Indicators of that new concord might manifest quickly sufficient.
In June, the AU Transition Mission in Somalia, beforehand generally known as the AU Mission in Somalia, started winding down its peacekeeping mission. Established in 2017, its mandate absolutely ends subsequent 12 months. Hundreds of the AU peacekeepers got here from three EAC members.
Analysts imagine that Somalia’s accession will solely improve its neighbours’ need to concentrate on eliminating the armed group al-Shabab. The EAC has deployed a regional pressure to the DRC, the final member to hitch, and will properly do the identical for Somalia.
If that results in the decimation of al-Shabab, which is notorious for its resilience, then Somalia’s admission into the EAC might turn into a masterstroke not only for the nation but in addition the area, they stated.
