When Sudan’s civil conflict erupted in April between the military and the Fast Assist Forces (RSF), the paramilitary group’s chief, Mohamed Hamdan “Hemedti” Dagalo, went into hiding.
Many speculated he had been severely wounded or was even lifeless till he appeared in a photo-op with Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni on Wednesday.
The subsequent day, Hemedti visited Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, ostensibly to debate methods to finish Sudan’s battle. He additionally handed by Ghana and Djibouti.
UPDATE- President Museveni, has met with Gen. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, the previous Deputy Chair of the Transitional Sovereignty Council of Sudan, at his nation house in Rwakitura. They mentioned, amongst different issues, methods to place an finish to the continued battle in Sudan. #UBCNEWS pic.twitter.com/HxFzdIN0t5
— UBC UGANDA (@ubctvuganda) December 27, 2023
Analysts consider Hemedti’s actual motive was securing regional help to seize all of Sudan from the military.
Final month, the RSF captured Gezira state – a breadbasket for Sudan – giving the group the clear higher hand in opposition to the military.
However reasonably than leverage navy success in negotiations to finish the battle, Hemedti seems to have ambitions to rule all of Sudan, in response to analysts, Sudanese journalists and diplomats.
“Hemedti desperately wants folks to really feel that the RSF is a governing drive. I believe that is why Hemedti went to fulfill heads of state,” stated Kholood Khair, a Sudan knowledgeable and founding director of the suppose tank Confluence Advisory.
“Hemedti will strive as a lot as doable to style himself into this concept of being a pacesetter,” Khair advised Al Jazeera.
Crimson herring
On December 9, the Intergovernmental Authority on Improvement (IGAD), an eight-nation East African bloc, launched an announcement saying Hemedti and armed forces chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan would meet head to head in two weeks.
However Hemedti went to Uganda the day earlier than he was supposed to fulfill al-Burhan for ceasefire talks in Djibouti. IGAD postponed the talks for “technical causes”.
On Monday, Hemedti met with Sudan’s former prime minister and the chief of a newly shaped civilian bloc, the Coordination of Civil Democratic Forces (Taqaddum), Abdallah Hamdok, in Ethiopia.
Taqaddum has introduced it additionally invited al-Burhan to fulfill at one other date, however there was no details about whether or not that invitation has been accepted.
Khair believes Hemedti and al-Burhan are each partaking in – and derailing – mediation efforts to purchase time for his or her navy operations.
“That is all a pink herring … to achieve some worldwide kudos whereas on the similar time attempting to achieve some floor [in the war],” she advised Al Jazeera.
In October, the RSF captured a number of military garrisons throughout the sprawling western area of Darfur, simply because the US-backed mediation talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, had been about to renew after a prolonged hiatus.
Jonas Horner, an impartial knowledgeable on Sudan, advised Al Jazeera the RSF’s growth because it takes extra states to the north and east shouldn’t be sustainable.
He famous that the paramilitary has recruited closely from its tribal base in Darfur in trade for permitting the fighters to loot cities they seize. However the pillaging of properties, hospitals, United Nations warehouses and markets has led to widespread resentment and hatred of the group, he stated.
“[The RSF’s] atrocities and their hardcore cruelty … might be their single greatest impediment and makes the prospect of them governing the nation far tougher,” Horner stated.
“I believe so many Sudanese … are by no means going to be snug with the RSF governing them,” he added.
Making an attempt to manipulate
Regardless of committing a myriad of human rights abuses, the RSF is attempting to convey regulation and order to areas beneath its management, Sudanese journalist Mohamad el-Fatih Yousif stated from Darfur.
He advised Al Jazeera that the paramilitary has created a division referred to as Civil and Political Administration, whose paid staff are chargeable for repairing primary providers like hospitals, electrical energy grids and water stations in South Darfur’s capital, Nyala.
“There’s relative security proper now in Nyala,” el-Fatih Yousif stated. “All of the RSF fighters that had been looting Nyala left. All of them went to Gezira state.”
The RSF has additionally established an area police drive in Sudan’s capital, Khartoum, most of which it controls. Police forces have additionally been instructed to take care of order all through Darfur.
Many activists and analysts are mocking the group’s ostensible try and fight criminality and blame the RSF for a lot of the theft, violence and lawlessness within the nation.
This can be a farce.
Will the RSF’s police drive arrest RSF forces for the killing, looting, property destruction, occupation of homes, sexual violence, and different crimes wherein they have been implicated in Khartoum and different areas? https://t.co/0iM6rcOFQF
— Lauren Blanchard (@LaurenBinDC) December 13, 2023
“This can be a farce,” tweeted Lauren Blanchard, an knowledgeable on Sudan and a specialist in African affairs on the Congressional Analysis Service.
“Will the RSF’s police drive arrest RSF forces for the killing, looting, property destruction, occupation of homes, sexual violence, and different crimes wherein they’ve been implicated in Khartoum and different areas?”
A accomplice in crime?
Whereas virtually no one in northern and japanese Sudan will settle for residing beneath Hemedti, European international locations will cooperate with the RSF if it captures the complete nation, in response to one Western diplomat who spoke to Al Jazeera on the situation of anonymity.
He stated that within the curiosity of stemming migration from Africa to Europe, the European Union is already signing partnerships with strongman leaders akin to Tunisian President Kais Stated and an japanese Libyan militia linked to renegade navy commander Khalifa Haftar.
The EU additionally beforehand labored with the RSF on migration as a part of the Khartoum Course of, a 2014 migration pact between the EU and international locations within the Horn of Africa to fight the trafficking and smuggling of human beings.
The EU suspended cooperation with Sudan after the RSF spearheaded an assault on a sit-in on June 3, 2019, in response to open-source investigations carried out by human rights teams. At the very least 120 folks had been killed in what survivors and rights teams referred to as a bloodbath.
“Europe denied that they ever supported the RSF immediately, however they did. And I believe that they’ll achieve this sooner or later if that’s what is important,” the diplomat advised Al Jazeera.
“And if it seems that the RSF is about to take over all of Sudan, then I believe the EU will make the calculation that they must publicly condemn what the RSF is doing.
“However I don’t suppose [the EU] will cease the RSF or help any nation to cease the RSF from taking on the nation.”
