QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, I’m new to your weblog. My associates right here have been on my case to hearken to you. Our authorities has fallen, and I’ve noticed one factor. Your forecasts are right as a result of no one right here will ever make a daring forecast, they usually all appear to evangelise the identical situation. You’ve been correct on Germany towards the herd of analysts right here. One after the other, European nations are falling, and I can now see your 2032 and the e collapse of governments unfolding earlier than our eyes. What do you see in 2025 for Germany? You’ve an answer for the US. May you save Europe from itself?
Thanks
DT
ANSWER: As a result of I’m not a tutorial, what I communicate comes from expertise and direct commentary. The one financial theories which have survived are completely from those that have been merchants – not lecturers. John Regulation traded on the Amsterdam alternate and gave delivery to Provide and Demand. He articulated his well-known water vs diamond analogy, which acknowledged that water was very important to society. Nonetheless, water had little worth in comparison with a diamond that had no true utility worth but was value greater than water. Even David Ricardo was concerned in buying and selling and noticed the implications of worldwide capital flows. He expressed {that a} nation ought to concentrate on its comparative benefit – one thing Trump should perceive.
Sir Thomas Gresham additionally traded on the identical Amsterdam alternate and noticed that debasement drove out the older coinage from the cash provide. Gresham’s Regulation turned that unhealthy cash drove good out of circulation. We noticed this even through the third century AD when folks hoarded the outdated silver cash and spent the debased. Even Albert Einstein, I used to be informed, acquired his thought of normal relativity from transferring up and down in an elevator. Albert’s particular concept of relativity gave the impression to be incompatible with the gravitational power as described by Newton’s legislation of gravity.
Most analysts espouse the identical outdated nonsense and mission the long run primarily based on what the central financial institution will or won’t do. These analysts should not actual, for all they purport is identical Keynesian theories they had been taught at school. Sorry – they had been a tutorial concept impressed by Marx and not work. Even Paul Volcker, former Fed Chairman, delivered his speech – the Rediscovery of the Enterprise Cycle, wherein he acknowledged that the “new economics” finally failed. Any analyst who factors to the Fed has by no means learn the memos. Right here, we have now the pondering course of earlier than Keynes. The Fed raised charges in Might 1928 and continued into the 1929 excessive with no impact.
Here’s a chart of name cash charges from the NYSE. Simply look intently. We see that 1929 was the largest inventory market rally however the lowest degree of rates of interest, all due to the capital inflows. The Panic of 1899 noticed charges rise to just about 200% due to the capital outflows. There isn’t a such concept of inventory market up rates of interest down that may be verified in any respect.
You might be right. Europe is imploding one nation at a time. As I’ve mentioned many instances, the creation of the euro was a compromise, and it may by no means rival the greenback, forcing institutional traders to nonetheless choose and select between member states missing a nationwide debt market. Mr Scholz is a catastrophe. He misplaced a vote of confidence by 394 to 207, with 116 members of the Bundestag abstaining. Scholz’s last-ditch try and retain energy with guarantees of huge spending fell flat on its face. This may ship Germany to the election in February, exactly when our laptop has been projecting a Panic Cycle prematurely. Leaders from a number of main events have since agreed to maneuver up the parliamentary election to February 23, seven months forward of schedule.
I’d gladly fly to Brussels to handle all members directly. However you should perceive the pc forecasts that my greatest efforts won’t succeed. Every member retained its debt. If Germany listened, it will strain others to comply with or be left behind. However politicians have been brainwashed by the NEOCONs and NATO and are making ready for a 3rd World Battle which the pc forecasts that they are going to lose. This would be the demise of the West. I suppose traditionally, all of us have our minutes of fame.
In 800AD, Pope Leo III topped Charlemagne (768-814AD) Holy Roman Emperor. At this time, Charlemagne is referred to by some as the daddy of Europe. From that date, the EU will not be prone to exist after 2029. Europe is heading within the fallacious path, and NATO is pushing for World Battle III, and there’s not a single authorities even keen to barter. That makes it very onerous. In all actuality, I believe they’d solely hearken to me in 2029 and past.
