On November 27, merely hours after a ceasefire settlement between Israel and Lebanon got here into impact, a coalition of Syrian opposition factions launched their largest navy operation in years. Led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), they attacked positions of the Syrian regime in Aleppo province, shortly advancing as their opponents retreated.
Inside days, they managed to realize management of Syria’s second-largest metropolis Aleppo and your complete Idlib governorate, reaching the outskirts of Hama.
This surprising marketing campaign by the Syrian opposition has rekindled a battle that was lengthy thought of “frozen”. It has additionally shattered the notion that Syrian chief Bashar al-Assad has achieved victory and should pave the best way for renewed peace negotiations.
Why the opposition succeeded
For practically 10 years, a coalition of Russian forces, Hezbollah, and Iran-linked teams have helped al-Assad retain management of most of Syria, except for the north.
Over the previous two years, this coalition has been degraded resulting from a sequence of developments, together with the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and this yr’s Israeli conflict on Lebanon.
In 2023, after the revolt of mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin and his subsequent demise, Russia ordered his Wagner Group forces, which had performed a crucial function in floor battles, to go away Syria. This yr, Moscow was pressured to drag a few of its air power models again from Syria which had lengthy offered much-needed air cowl for the Syrian regime forces. The fleet of Russian plane presently stationed on the Hmeimim base in Latakia has dwindled in contrast with its peak power earlier than the onset of the Ukraine conflict.
Hezbollah forces deployed in Syria have additionally declined. The conflict with Israel inflicted heavy losses on the group, as lots of its higher echelons and its chief, Hassan Nasrallah, have been killed. In consequence, the group has needed to withdraw a part of its forces deployed within the Aleppo and Idlib countryside in the direction of Lebanon. Iran’s navy presence in Syria has additionally been weakened by frequent Israeli assaults.
The Syrian regime forces have additionally been degraded over the previous 14 years of conflict. Defection and fight losses have dwindled considerably, whereas the monetary disaster has restricted Damascus’s potential to pay common wages.
When the opposition launched its assault, it confronted a very worn-out military that had misplaced the need to combat. Morale had collapsed, particularly with the absence of allies on the bottom and the Russian Air Power within the sky; they retreated shortly.
In contrast, the opposition’s efficiency has improved considerably lately, because it has change into higher organised and extra disciplined, particularly HTS. It has additionally been higher outfitted because of native manufacturing, seizing weapons from the regime’s positions and its allies, and acquiring them from exterior events.
There may be now a possibility for peace
The Syrian opposition’s advance was stunning to many in all probability as a result of for years, al-Assad has been performing as a victor within the Syrian civil conflict. Since his forces regained management over giant elements of the nation in 2018, together with the three de-escalation zones within the south, Damascus countryside and northern Homs, it has refused to make any concessions and even interact in any critical negotiations – whether or not via the United Nations-sponsored Geneva course of or the Russian-sponsored Astana course of.
Normalisation of relations with Arab international locations additionally boosted al-Assad’s self-confidence. Simply final yr, he was invited to attend the Arab Summit in Riyadh which ended 12 years of Arab isolation. All of this had satisfied the regime that it may regain its membership and legitimacy locally of countries and safe financial support for reconstruction with out having to make any concessions, neither to the Arab international locations nor to the Syrian opposition.
As well as, believing that he has the higher hand, al-Assad turned down a number of affords by Turkiye to resolve the Syrian refugee downside and transfer the political course of ahead.
The speedy advance of the opposition has shattered the illusions of victory that the regime and its allies have cradled. The opposition now controls most of northern Syria, together with Aleppo, dwelling to about one-fifth of the Syrian inhabitants. With its financial, industrial, human and political weight, Aleppo may change into a pivotal level for the Syrian opposition and a serious asset in any potential negotiations.
The scenario on the battleground additionally displays new geopolitical realities. Al-Assad’s predominant allies, Iran and Russia, have been dropping affect resulting from regional and worldwide circumstances, whereas Turkiye, the primary regional ally of the opposition, is on the rise.
In consequence, there may be now a window of alternative to launch a real political course of that would finish the 14-year-old battle, which has left a whole lot of 1000’s of Syrians lifeless, tens of millions displaced and the nation in tatters.
As issues stand now, Russia and Iran lack the troops and firepower to reverse the tide. To save lots of al-Assad this time round, they haven’t any different however to commit themselves to a political course of.
The incoming US administration can also encourage this. Though beforehand, US President Donald Trump turned away from Syria, describing it as a land of “sand and demise” and ordering the withdrawal of US troops within the Kurdish-held northeast, this time round, the Syrian conflict might current him with a possibility for a fast overseas coverage success and making good on his promise to “finish wars”.
Syria is low-hanging fruit, and Iran and Russia could also be desperate to strike a cope with Trump. Succeeding the place his Democratic predecessors failed could also be a adequate incentive for the brand new US president to place his weight behind the negotiation of a peace settlement.
The views expressed on this article are the writer’s personal and don’t essentially replicate Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.
