On February 28, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy held a long-awaited assembly with US President Donald Trump in an try to influence him to proceed US assist for Ukraine. The encounter was seemingly not what the Ukrainian head of state had anticipated.
Trump and US Vice President JD Vance chastised Zelenskyy in entrance of TV cameras for being “disrespectful” and for refusing to embrace their initiative for a ceasefire with Russia.
It’s evident that Zelenskyy won’t make a return to Washington throughout Trump’s presidency. It is usually evident that US stress on Ukraine will considerably escalate within the following weeks and months, as Trump presses Kyiv to make vital concessions to Russia in return for peace.
Even earlier than the showdown on the White Home, the Trump administration was questioning Zelenskyy’s legitimacy and pushing for presidential elections to be held. Holding a rushed election with the only function of eliminating the incumbent, nevertheless, may spell catastrophe for the nation.
Earlier than Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, approval rankings for Zelenskyy’s presidency had been as little as 28 p.c and 11 p.c for his get together. Russia’s full-scale invasion despatched Ukrainians rallying behind the president and his reputation reached document highs. Nevertheless, over the previous two years, his approval rankings have been on a constant decline. In line with polls, belief in Zelenskyy fell from 54 p.c in April 2024 to 49 p.c in January – not as little as Trump has claimed, however a far cry from his 90 p.c ranking in Could 2022.
A number of components have contributed to Zelenskyy’s declining reputation, together with rampant corruption underneath his administration and the rising fatigue from the continuing battle.
The Ukrainian president – nicely conscious of his vulnerability – has made clear that he’s not snug with competitors. For him, the stakes are excessive as a result of if he had been to lose a re-election bid, he may face prosecution for corruption or varied types of retribution from his rivals. The polls are already displaying that if elections had been to be held instantly, he would lose.
A formidable challenger to Zelenskyy has already emerged: Valerii Zaluzhnyi, a four-star basic who served as commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces till February 2024. Polls present that Zaluzhnyi – if he had been to run in a presidential vote – would defeat Zelenskyy. Public belief in him is among the many highest and stood at 72 p.c in January.
Though Zaluzhnyi was dismissed by the president on the heels of the failed Ukrainian counteroffensive in 2023, there have been speculations that his reputation in Ukraine might have additionally been an element. The final was despatched overseas to function the Ukrainian ambassador to the UK – a place he nonetheless occupies.
To date, Zaluzhnyi has not declared an intention to run, though there aren’t any ensures he wouldn’t change his thoughts. If he stays out, different navy figures, corresponding to Kyrylo Budanov, might step in.
Budanov, Ukraine’s intelligence chief, has a public belief ranking of 62 p.c. He just lately disappeared from the general public eye after a yr of high-profile media appearances. Rumours have unfold that Zelenskyy’s workplace deliberate to take away him, leading to his sudden retreat. However he might nicely reappear as soon as the marketing campaign begins.
Boxing champion Oleksandr Usyk may develop into a possible darkish horse. In a rustic the place a former comic grew to become president, a victorious athlete doesn’t look like an unlikely contender. Though he has not made any political ambitions public, he has began showing in polls and his ranking presently stands at 60 p.c.
Then there’s former President Petro Poroshenko, who has low approval rankings, however stays a harmful rival to Zelenskyy. Since 2019, greater than 130 prison circumstances have been launched towards him – together with one accusing him of treason for approving a coal-supplying scheme from the Russian-occupied Donbas area.
Poroshenko is an outspoken critic of Zelenskyy and isn’t hiding his political ambitions. He has travelled to the US and met with Trump’s crew. In February, when he tried to go to the Munich Safety Convention, he was not allowed. He now faces state-imposed sanctions on “nationwide safety grounds”, which embody an asset freeze.
The message of the sanctions is evident: Poroshenko will probably be eradicated from the presidential race earlier than it even begins. On this context of perceived political persecution, different potential challengers haven’t come ahead, being too afraid to run.
There was rising concern over Zelenskyy’s dealing with of opposition figures, however to date, no sturdy public rebuke has emerged from his allies. After the confrontation on the White Home, European leaders expressed assist for him. This has given Zelenskyy a brief enhance at residence, however it’s unclear how lengthy it may maintain.
Aside from the bitter political rivalries and retribution, the Ukrainian political scene can also be marked by persevering with divisions inside society. The battle has intensified feelings and cut up the nation proper down the center, making a risky scenario.
The ultranationalists not solely maintain sway amongst sure components of the inhabitants but additionally are empowered as lively contributors within the battle. There may be additionally nonetheless a portion of society that leans pro-Russian and doesn’t need the battle to proceed.
If an election is imposed from overseas on this risky scenario, it may show extra catastrophic than Russia’s invasion or the lack of Ukraine’s industrial heartlands. The hazard isn’t simply {that a} third of the inhabitants can be unable to vote and the election’s legitimacy could also be in query.
The actual menace is that the vote may ignite a battle of all towards all earlier than a single poll is forged. An incumbent who fears shedding a re-election bid and political rivals who’re hellbent on regaining relevance might resort to exploiting societal divisions. The navy and safety businesses might be pressured to behave, which provides to a probably explosive combine.
If presidential elections can dangerously polarise societies at peace – as now we have seen in the US – they’ll do a lot worse in instances of battle. A rushed election in Ukraine that serves the political plans of a international energy is definitely a recipe for catastrophe. A vote must be held as soon as there’s a sturdy ceasefire that permits for all Ukrainians to forged their votes with out concern of the prospect of polarisation and battle.
The views expressed on this article are the writer’s personal and don’t essentially replicate Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.
