The US is simply days away from its presidential election, with Kamala Harris and Donald Trump focusing their campaigns on essential swing states, the place each vote issues.
As Election Day approaches, we take a better have a look at what to anticipate on the day itself and the way the outcomes could unfold.
When is the US election?
The election might be held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024.
In most states, polling stations will open between 7am and 9am native time. Given the span of a number of time zones within the US, that might be between 11:00 GMT and 16:00 GMT.
At what time does the polling finish?
Ballot closing occasions differ from state to state and typically county to county.
Nevertheless, most polling stations will shut between 6pm Jap Time and midnight Jap Time (22:00-04:00 GMT).
When does the US vote counting start, and when can we anticipate the outcomes?
Simply hours after the primary polls shut at 6pm Jap Time (22:00 GMT), outcomes are anticipated to begin coming in. Nevertheless, some states will tally votes extra rapidly than others. As polls shut a number of hours later in states to the west, their first outcomes will solely begin coming later – when some jap states may have already got been known as for Harris or Trump.
In a decent race between them, counting might proceed properly previous election evening, and we would not know the winner for a number of days.
“It’s actually shut,” says Raymond J. La Raja, a political science professor on the College of Massachusetts Amherst.
In line with FiveThirtyEight’s Nationwide Polls tracker, Harris maintains a slender nationwide lead of about 1.2 factors as of Friday.
Nevertheless, La Raja defined that the polls may not precisely seize some voter teams, which might result in stunning outcomes for both candidate. If the polls are mistaken and the race is just not as tight as anticipated “then we are going to know fairly rapidly,” he added.
“However my guess is we won’t know within the first few days.
“It’s so shut [that a candidate might] not concede… so I might get out the espresso and tea as a result of it’s going to be a protracted night that may go into few days.”
What do we all know concerning the swing states?
Seven swing states are anticipated to be key in deciding the presidential race end result.
These key states embody Pennsylvania (19 Electoral votes), North Carolina (16), Georgia (16), Michigan (15), Arizona (11), Wisconsin (10), and Nevada (6), collectively totaling 93 Electoral School votes.
A candidate wants a minimum of 270 out of 538 Electoral votes to win the election.
Polls in these states will shut between 7pm and 10pm Jap Time (23:00 to 02:00 GMT).
A few of the first outcomes will doubtless come from Georgia, the place state regulation requires that every one early votes be counted and reported by 8pm Jap Time (midnight GMT) on election evening.
North Carolina follows. On this state, votes might be counted and reported all through the night, with full outcomes anticipated by midnight (04:00 GMT).
In 2020, Nevada was sluggish, and the state was not known as till 5 days after election day. Since then, the principles have modified, and the method is predicted to maneuver sooner this time. Nonetheless, the outcomes may not be recognized on election evening. The state permits late-arriving mail ballots, so it might take days till we all know the ultimate outcomes.
Pennsylvania, one of the vital battleground states, didn’t have a transparent winner in 2020 for 4 days after Election Day. The state is considered one of only some that don’t permit election staff to start processing mail ballots till Election Day, which implies it would doubtless take a number of days earlier than the outcomes are recognized.
In Michigan, the counting could possibly be sooner than in earlier elections, because it now permits officers to start processing mail ballots earlier than Election Day, however we don’t have a transparent time but for when the state could be known as.
In Arizona, officers can start processing mail ballots as quickly as they’re acquired. First outcomes are anticipated to be reported at about 10pm Jap Time (02:00 GMT), one hour after the polls shut.
Lastly, in Wisconsin, ballot staff can’t start processing ballots till Election Day, which implies there is also delays, much like Pennsylvania. In line with a CNN report, outcomes should not doubtless till Wednesday.
What occurs if there’s a tie?
If there’s a 269-269 tie or a third-party candidate wins Electoral votes, stopping any candidate from reaching 270 votes, the step that follows is named a “contingent election”.
A contingent election is the method that takes place when the US Home of Representatives decides the winner. Every state’s delegation within the Home casts one vote, and a candidate should obtain a majority of the state delegation votes to win.
The US Senate would then select the vp with every senator casting one vote and a easy majority (51 votes) required to win.
There have been three situations of contingent elections within the US, in 1801, 1825 and 1837. The closest election in recent times was the 2000 presidential contest, when George W Bush received 271 Electoral School votes – only one greater than he wanted – after a controversial recount in Florida. Outgoing Vice President Al Gore received 266 Electoral School votes.
Is there concern a few potential delay this 12 months?
If the announcement of outcomes is delayed, “it undoubtedly will increase emotions of fraud and illegitimacy,” La Raja mentioned.
“The longer we wait, individuals are like: what’s happening behind these closed doorways? How are they counting the ballots? Who’s mendacity?,” he added.
In line with him, it’s higher to have a decent election and attain “the decision rapidly.”
These fears and doubts arose in 2021, when 1000’s of supporters of then-President Trump stormed the Capitol, attempting to overturn his 2020 election loss and forcing lawmakers to run for security. This occurred after he advised his supporters to “battle like hell.”
What has occurred in earlier years?
Within the final election in 2020, the outcomes had been introduced 4 days after the election on November 3, as soon as Pennsylvania’s outcomes had been confirmed. Within the earlier election in 2016, Hillary Clinton conceded to Donald Trump the morning after the election.
Within the 2020 election, some states went via what is named a “crimson mirage”, with Trump showing to steer when the preliminary votes had been counted on election evening. A “blue shift” passed off as further, mail-in votes had been counted, and President Joe Biden took the lead.
