The Russian struggle in Ukraine, essentially the most devastating navy engagement in Europe since 1945, has endured for 3 years, and the prospect of its decision — with the Trump administration opening talks with Russia — has not generated widespread optimism.
In a current interview with the Monetary Instances, Polish President Andrzej Duda warned that the struggle’s conclusion, if and when it comes, might unleash a wave of organized crime flooding into Poland after which spreading throughout Europe and even into the U.S. His issues echo a sentiment lengthy whispered in Western political circles. He in contrast the scenario to the Nineteen Nineties in Russia, when the return of veterans from the Soviet-Afghanistan struggle fueled violence throughout the previous USSR.
Ukraine’s Overseas Ministry pushed again, calling his remarks unfair: “Ukrainian troopers and veterans aren’t a risk however an element of safety for Ukraine, Poland and all of Europe.”
Duda’s comparability, nevertheless, might understate the hazards forward. The Soviet struggle in Afghanistan lasted a decade however didn’t produce the extent of social upheaval that Russia’s invasion has inflicted on Ukraine. The nation’s navy now numbers 980,000, in response to President Volodymyr Zelensky, and a whole bunch of 1000’s of battle-hardened and battle-scarred troopers will return to civilian life — many with lacking limbs, many extra with deep psychological wounds — and all to a rustic in ruins. The place will they go? What’s going to they do?
Ukraine has already skilled the downstream results of post-war psychological well being issues. In April 2018, when Russia’s aggression wasn’t referred to as a struggle however a “terrorist” motion within the Donbas, information revealed that greater than 1,000 Ukraine veterans of these less-intense battles had dedicated suicide.
Now the Ukrainian Well being Ministry estimates that almost 15 million individuals — in a inhabitants of lower than 40 million — would require psychological assist because of the struggle.
But the nation’s shattered financial system — its public debt reached $166.1 billion in December — raises severe doubts about its potential to fund important companies, together with psychological well being applications. Final 12 months, amid a lot fanfare, Ukraine legalized medical hashish partly to assist troops and civilians affected by PTSD and different war-related psychological diseases. However medical marijuana is little greater than a Band-Support on a bullet wound for a navy during which, in response to one examine, there is only one psychologist for each 400-500 service members.
Earlier than the struggle, there have been an estimated 4 million firearms in Ukraine, most of them unregistered, and an untold quantity circulating on the black market. After the invasion, gun possession legal guidelines had been liberalized and Zelensky promised that the federal government would give a weapon to anybody who needed to defend the nation. Within the Kyiv space alone, 18,000 rifles had been distributed to civilians, and homefront militias had been inspired. When 1000’s of lively obligation troops are demobilized, military-grade weapons might add to the rise in armed civilians and the dangers of upper crime charges.
Regardless of the powderkeg potential, the Ukrainian authorities appears extra centered on political maneuvering — each in home energy struggles and worldwide diplomacy — than on getting ready for the struggle’s aftermath. Officers steadily make statements about world politics and safety alliances, but significant efforts to deal with veterans’ reintegration and welfare stay conspicuously missing.
A peace settlement perceived as a capitulation might additional erode nationwide morale that’s already at a low level, with falling troop ranges and Russia’s current front-line features within the preventing. Historical past exhibits that in such moments usually public disillusionment grows, weakening confidence in management. Throughout these intervals, excessive factions might emerge, stoking unrest and pending a fragile order.
When Russia launched its full-on invasion in February 2022, Ukrainians united underneath symbols that had beforehand divided them. The slogan Slava Ukraini! (Glory to Ukraine), as soon as related to ultra-right-wing nationalist actions throughout World Battle II, was embraced nationwide, even in areas the place nationalism had been controversial.
However in 2025, excessive nationalist fervor has waned. This may very well be a brief lull earlier than one other eruption of unrest, provoked by post-war trauma, hardship and disillusionment. That, mixed with an armed inhabitants and a era of younger males solid in struggle might threaten Ukraine as a lot as Russian aggression has.
It appears sure that when the struggle ends, Ukraine will face a brand new battle — inner strife. Vladimir Putin is undoubtedly factoring this into any peace deal. What he failed to realize via his “particular navy operation,” he might try to realize from inside.
Ukraine will want important Western assist to navigate these challenges. Monetary assist, infrastructure growth and complete psychological well being companies will likely be essential to reintegrate veterans and keep stability.
But assist for Ukraine “till it wins” has been waning in Western Europe and in America. A current Guardian ballot highlights a pointy decline in enthusiasm, coinciding with rising doubts about U.S. overseas and navy assist. Whether or not allies will step as much as stop a post-war collapse in Ukraine — or let it unravel from inside — stays an open query.
Peace might come, however there’s a actual concern that the struggle’s aftermath may very well be virtually as destabilizing for Ukraine as its starting.
Sergey Maidukov, writer of “Life on the Run: One Household’s Seek for Peace in Battle-torn Ukraine” amongst different books, is predicated in Kyiv.
