United States President Joe Biden and President Xi Jinping of China will meet on Saturday in what is predicted to be their final face-to-face assembly throughout Biden’s time period as Beijing braces for a Donald Trump presidency in Washington.
The 2 leaders are attending a two-day heads of state assembly of the Asia Pacific Financial Cooperation group in Lima, Peru, that started on Friday. Saturday’s assembly would be the third time the 2 will meet in individual since Biden took workplace.
Relations between China and the US, the world’s most vital superpowers, had nosedived throughout Trump’s first time period as president, when he began a commerce warfare with Beijing, utilizing punishing tariff charges.
But ties turned even rockier previously 4 years of the Biden administration, with sore factors starting from commerce wars to TikTok. In 2023, Mexico overtook China because the US’s largest commerce accomplice for the primary time in 20 years as financial ties deteriorated.
Nonetheless, Biden has sought to take care of a gentle relationship with Beijing. US Nationwide Safety Adviser Jake Sullivan informed reporters forward of the Lima assembly that Xi and Biden would talk about the transition to a Trump White Home and the necessity for level-headedness on each side in that interval.
In his election marketing campaign this yr, Trump threatened to slap 60 p.c blanket tariffs on all Chinese language imports to the US.
Right here’s an image of how the US-China relations soured underneath Biden – and what to anticipate underneath Trump 2.0:
Commerce wars
Trump, in his first run as authorities, kickstarted a commerce warfare with China after his administration blamed Beijing for ‘unfair’ commerce practices that it stated contributed to a big commerce deficit in China’s favour. These practices, the US maintains, embody compelled labour, mental property theft and unfairly low pricing that hurts US producers. China has lengthy denied these allegations.
From January 2018, the Trump administration imposed increased tariffs on Chinese language imports at charges of between 10 to 25 p.c underneath Part 301 of the Commerce Act. Beijing accused Washington of ‘nationalist protectionism’ and retaliated with increased tariffs on US imports.
Nonetheless, near the tip of Trump’s first time period, the 2 nations agreed to a deal that might see Washington cut back tariffs on some items. China in return dedicated to enhancing mental property rights and likewise shopping for a further $200bn-worth of US items above 2017 ranges by the tip of 2021. Trump touted the take care of Xi, his “superb pal” as a hit, however researchers in 2022 stated that China had purchased items value solely 58 p.c of the quantity it had dedicated to buying.
Biden primarily stored Trump-era tariffs in place all through his time period and moreover sanctioned Chinese language firms for coping with Russia, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
In Might 2024, the Biden administration reviewed the Part 301 restrictions and imposed increased charges of between 25 to one hundred pc on some Chinese language imports. Electrical autos and photo voltaic cells had been among the many affected items.
President Biden additionally tightened export controls on semiconductor expertise vital for creating synthetic intelligence and threatened to broaden sanctions on Chinese language banks working with Russia. Tariffs on China presently account for $77bn of the $79bn that the US authorities earns via tariffs, in keeping with the Tax Basis, a Washington-based monitor. By 2022, the US commerce deficit with China stood at $383bn.
On defending Taiwan
Face-offs between the 2 nations over self-ruled Taiwan intensified underneath Biden. Whereas China claims the area as its territory, the US is Taiwan’s strongest ally and backs the island to counter Beijing’s rising navy energy within the Asia Pacific.
Beijing doesn’t rule out utilizing pressure to subdue Taiwan. Routinely, the Chinese language navy conducts drills with warships and plane close to Taiwan, prompting alarm. Prior to now two years, these drills have intensified, particularly within the wake of prime US officers like then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi visiting Taipei in 2022.
In its newest transfer, China launched the Joint Sword-2024B workout routines on October 14. Beijing stated the navy drills had been a “stern warning to the separatist acts of ‘Taiwan Independence’ forces”.
“We will see that the world has lots of regional flashpoints which might be ongoing and perhaps Beijing sees this as … a chance to check their will and see if the world’s help for Taiwan is robust sufficient,” Kuang-shun Yang, the co-founder of the Taipei-based suppose tank US-Taiwan Watch, informed Al Jazeera, referring to the Russia-Ukraine warfare, and the conflicts within the Center East.
It’s broadly believed {that a} Chinese language invasion may immediate a US navy response, though Washington’s “strategic ambiguity” coverage retains each side guessing. Taiwan’s President William Lai Ching-te although, has promised to “resist annexation or encroachment” by Beijing.
The US is Taiwan’s most important provider of weapons. In late October this yr, the US angered Beijing when it accredited a $2bn arms sale bundle to Taiwan, together with superior surface-to-air missile methods and radars. China pledged to take “all essential means” to say its possession over the disputed area.
Tensions earlier flared instantly between Washington and Beijing in February 2023 when Biden ordered the capturing down of a Chinese language “spy” balloon allegedly geared up with antennas that traversed US airspace.
TikTok over within the US?
In April, Biden signed a regulation giving ByteDance – the Chinese language proprietor of the wildly well-liked TikTok app – 9 months to divest its stake within the firm or face a ban within the US for allegedly endangering nationwide safety. The deadline for the sale – January 19 – is in the future earlier than Trump’s inauguration on January 20.
Successive US administrations, together with Trump’s first authorities, have handled the app with mistrust. Authorities cite rising considerations that knowledge from TikTok’s 170 million US customers may very well be tapped by China for espionage. Some intelligence officers of the Federal Bureau of Intelligence have even warned that Beijing may affect American customers by manipulating TikTok’s extremely efficient algorithm that curates video content material that customers are uncovered to.
TikTok denies these claims. Chief government Shou Zi Chew, who was grilled by US lawmakers in Congress in March 2023, maintained that “Bytedance shouldn’t be an agent of China”. The app is now banned from government-issued telephones within the US, the UK and Canada.
Trump’s administration was the primary to aim a TikTok ban again in 2020, underneath an government order. Nonetheless, the corporate was in a position to safe an injunction from a Washington decide who stated such a prohibition was illegal. Consultants say TikTok may once more search an injunction, and that the authorized course of may take a number of years.
China has maintained it’s in opposition to the app’s sale.
What to anticipate underneath Trump?
Trump’s second time period may see the commerce warfare escalate, economists predict. His prime cupboard picks embody a number of officers recognized to advocate a more durable stance in direction of Beijing, together with Florida Senator Marco Rubio. The senator, whom Trump has named as his incoming secretary of state, is underneath Beijing’s sanctions for his outspoken criticism of Chinese language insurance policies.
However, Trump’s cupboard additionally consists of X and Tesla proprietor Elon Musk, who has – a minimum of whereas carrying his businessman’s hat – been much less hawkish in direction of China.
Whereas the president-elect has lengthy claimed that the US-China commerce imbalance can solely be corrected by slapping heavy tariffs on Chinese language items, analysts be aware that his first-term tariffs didn’t shut the hole.
The tariffs, which had been additionally meant to immediate US producers in China to return to the nation and improve manufacturing, really induced some to shift to equally low cost nations like Bangladesh or Vietnam as an alternative, in keeping with 2021 findings by QIMA, a Hong Kong auditing agency.
In the meantime, Trump’s plans for Taiwan are much less clear. In his first time period, he spoke on to former Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen, igniting Beijing’s anger. Historically, the US avoids leader-to-leader contact. Trump’s administration additionally elevated weapon gross sales to the island.
Nonetheless, throughout this yr’s election marketing campaign, Trump, whereas talking on the Joe Rogan podcast, alleged that Taiwan stole American chip companies, referencing the US’s reliance on the island’s semiconductors. He additionally criticised Taiwan for not paying the US for “safety”. Analysts say these feedback may sign much less pleasant relations.
As for TikTok, Trump may show extra versatile, though he first led the cost in opposition to the corporate. Throughout campaigns this yr, he pledged to “save TikTok” – however has not revealed particulars. Trump argues banning TikTok would empower Fb, which he calls an “enemy of the individuals.”
Consultants say Trump may push for US authorities to switch the Biden ban or drop it. Tech regulation professional Anupam Chander informed Al Jazeera that Trump may additionally ask the US Congress to empower him to re-negotiate with the corporate.
“I feel many politicians would favor that TikTok not go darkish within the US in January. In any case, some 170 million People proceed to make use of the app, even after the federal government informed them it’s a nationwide safety menace,” Chander stated.
