COMMENT: Marty, it’s disgraceful that individuals take your work and concern books pretending it’s their analysis. But it’s much more shameful that Donald Trump isn’t calling you for recommendation as an alternative of those individuals who couldn’t discover the door in a room if the lights went out. You said clearly that Iran’s nukes had been irrelevant, for Russia, China, or North Korea may place them there simply as Russia did in the course of the Cuban Missile Disaster. Then what? I can see your concern. This isn’t a solvable concern, and it was simply made worse. Your laptop is at all times right.
KW
After I was barely a teen, I used to be climbing a tree and fell. I didn’t get damage from the autumn, however once I fell, I took down a Yellow-Hacket hornet’s nest. Happily, I used to be not too removed from house, and I ran like hell with bees attacking me throughout. I worry that is what we now have simply achieved for the Neocons; they solely take a look at what is instantly in entrance of their nostril, with no thought for what comes subsequent. There are sleeper cells in main cities in Europe and the US. The Neocons assume that they’ve received, and Iran has no playing cards. They at all times assume they’re superior, but they’ve misplaced each single battle from Korea, Vietnam, to Afghanistan and Iraq, and so they stated they might win Iraq in 3 weeks or much less, after which invade seven nations.
Whereas the Neocons look solely at their fast goal, they’re INCAPABLE of ever comprehending the UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES. That is NOT the tip, however the starting, and that’s in keeping with our laptop, not my private opinion. I want it had been my opinion, for then we’d have a shot at that assertion being flawed. We have now a Panic Cycle in 2026 on the subject of worldwide battle.
President Donald Trump has simply delivered the dream of the Neocons, and he doesn’t even realize it. He wrote on Reality Social:
“There may be not one other army within the World that would have achieved this. NOW IS THE TIME FOR PEACE! …
That is an HISTORIC MOMENT FOR THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, ISRAEL, AND THE WORLD. IRAN MUST NOW AGREE TO END THIS WAR.”
By dropping highly effective bombs on Iran’s nuclear amenities at Fordow and elsewhere, Trump has acquiesced to the behest of Israel, and that was a fateful alternative, for it demonstrated that the US has chosen sides not merely with Iran. Nonetheless, it’s reverberating behind the veil of the Center East as a one-sided gunboat diplomacy. The rising concern is that the USA might not be capable of deal impartially within the Center East.
Iran’s Sunni neighbours are simply 200 miles away at most. That is effectively inside attain of Iran’s short-range missiles. Since Iran’s neighbors are hosts to key US army bases, there’s a rising worry that they are often dragged into the foremost Center East battle. Then some query the loyalty of the US if the US should select between Israel and the Arab world.
The final time we noticed battle within the Center East, there was additionally a significant shock and fragmentation of all the area. The 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq resulted in irreparable injury to the area, costing the USA $3 trillion. The UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCE was the following mayhem, which benefited Iran by eradicating their arch enemy Saddam Huesin. The motion by the Neocons infected sectarian tensions in all the area and led to the start of the Sunni jihadist group ISIS.
No matter Iran’s response, America’s international coverage is extra carefully aligned with Israel’s than it has ever been. As beforehand famous, Netanyahu appears to be calling the pictures with President Trump scrambling to maintain tempo along with his supposedly junior ally, a Neocon by means of and thru. Now, regardless of years of claiming he would keep away from wars and different international entanglements, President Trump has simply wager his complete presidency on a dramatically aggressive act in Iran that does violate worldwide legislation, and there was undoubtedly no declaration of battle. Trump will now go down in historical past because the American president to ever strike one other nation with bombers with no formal battle. At the very least within the Gulf Warfare, the US invoked Article 5 of NATO. President Trump can also be the primary to have overtly joined Israel in an assault on an adversary. That may be a extreme concern that historical past is not going to overlook.
Our Nationwide Debt has risen dramatically, all due to the limitless wars of the Neocons. They don’t care concerning the folks or our nation. All they care about is the destruction of their enemies to fulfill their uncooked hatred. We face sovereign defaults around the globe, all due to perpetually borrowing with no intention of ever paying again the debt.
We’re nonetheless paying curiosity on World Warfare I and II, together with Vietnam, Korea, Afghanistan, and Iraq. This one might be many trillions, and it’ll contribute to the collapse of the world financial system post-2030.
We have now simply entered the Thucydides Entice. This highlights the profound and infrequently perilous instability brought on by a significant shift in international energy, which is what’s now unfolding. The hubris of the US, in believing it’s invincible, was promoted by the Neocons, simply because it was in historical Athens. This lesson from historical past serves as a stark warning that the pure friction between a rising and ruling energy is a chief historic catalyst for catastrophic battle, emphasizing the vital want for skillful statecraft, clear communication, and disaster administration mechanisms to navigate this harmful section peacefully. This lesson from historical past highlights a strong sample that warrants critical consideration, significantly within the context of US-Russia and US-China relations.
Thucydides (c. 460-395 BC) in his seminal work, Historical past of the Peloponnesian Warfare, recognized the elemental explanation for the devastating 27-year battle between Sparta and Athens. He wrote:
“It was the rise of Athens and the worry that this instilled in Sparta that made battle inevitable.”
The Entice refers back to the structural stress created by a significant shift within the steadiness of energy. The established energy (like Sparta) feels threatened by the rising energy’s (like Athens’) rising affect, wealth, and army capabilities. Concurrently, the rising energy calls for higher recognition, affect, and a task in shaping the system commensurate with its new energy. This mutual worry, suspicion, and rivalry usually result in miscalculation, crises, and in the end, battle – even when neither facet actively wishes it. Therefore, the pc tasks that WWIII is inevitable.
The Peloponnesian Warfare (431-404BC) was fought between Sparta and Athens, the 2 superpowers of historical Greece on the time. Every was dominant in its personal approach, and the battle was basically a conflict between these two giants. Athens led to defeat in 404 BC, exactly on schedule with our ECM mannequin.
Sparta and its allies (particularly Thebes) struck the primary blow. Nevertheless, the battle’s origins contain a long time of stress and particular provocations not in contrast to the connection between the US, Russia, and China. In early 431 BC, a small drive of Thebans (members of the Spartan-led Peloponnesian League) launched a shock evening assault on town of Plataea, a long-standing ally of Athens inside Boeotia (Theban territory). Thebes sought to remove Plataean resistance to Theban dominance over Boeotia, very like Israel versus Iran. They sought to deliver Plataean firmly into their sphere. They had been additionally inspired by pro-Theban Plataean residents who opened the gates, not in contrast to Israel’s sympathizers inside Iran.
The preliminary coup try failed. Plataean residents rallied, captured many Thebans, and executed them. This act was a transparent violation of the present Thirty Years’ Peace treaty. This assault by Sparta’s strongest ally is extensively thought-about the primary overt army motion of the battle. It gave Athens justification to mobilize and assist Plataea. The town-state of Plataea was situated in Boeotia. The dominant energy in Boeotia was Thebes, which did concern prolific coinage (that includes the Boeotian defend) because the chief of the Boeotian League. There are not any cash issued by Plataea, for they seem to have used the coinage of Thebes.
After the failed Theban assault on Plataea and the execution of the Theban prisoners, Sparta, because the chief of the Peloponnesian League, formally declared battle on Athens. This declaration adopted failed negotiations through which Sparta demanded that Athens elevate sanctions in opposition to Megara (one other Spartan ally) and successfully cede its empire. This demand would have led to Athens’ empire being surrendered, which might have been a dedicated act of geopolitical suicide. Therefore, it was resoundingly rejected.
So, whereas Thebes struck the primary bodily blow, Sparta, because the chief of the opposing alliance, formally initiated the state of battle. I ought to level out that Sparta was a Communist State and by no means issued coinage to forestall folks from attaining wealth. Everybody was to supply army service.
The historian Thucydides, who lived by means of the battle, argued that the actual trigger was deeper than any single occasion. This was rooted within the rivalry between the 2 superpowers, not in contrast to as we speak, with the USA and Europe on one facet and Russia and China on the opposite. Thucydides wrote in his Historical past of the Peloponnesian Warfare.
“The expansion of the facility of Athens, and the alarm which this impressed in Sparta, made battle inevitable.”
After the Persian Wars, Athens remodeled the Delian League (initially a defensive alliance) into an Athenian Empire, utilizing its highly effective navy to dominate different Greek city-states, extract tribute, and intrude of their affairs. It even moved the treasury from Delos to Athens and funded the development of the Parthenon. Athens was primarily a maritime energy.
Sparta, the standard land energy and chief of the extra conservative Peloponnesian League, seen Athens’ rising energy, wealth, and democratic affect with deep suspicion and worry. They noticed it as a basic risk to their very own safety, lifestyle, and management in Greece.
There had been a civil battle in Epidamnus, which drew in Corcyra (Corfu) after which Corinth (Sparta’s key ally). Corcyra, not a part of both league, appealed to Athens for assist in opposition to Corinth. Athens made a defensive alliance with Corcyra and despatched ships, which fought in opposition to Corinthian ships on the Battle of Sybota (433 BC). This straight concerned Athens in a battle in opposition to a significant Spartan ally, heightening Spartan fears of Athenian expansionism. That is what Trump simply did by attacking Iran, an ally of each Russia and China.
The Potidaea Revolt (432-429 BC), which was a Corinthian colony, however additionally a tribute-paying member of the Athenian Empire, revolted with encouragement from Corinth and Sparta. Athens besieged Potidaea. Corinthian troops fought alongside the Potidaeans in opposition to the Athenians. This created one other direct army conflict between Athens and a key Spartan ally (Corinth), additional straining relations and giving Sparta’s allies sturdy grievances in opposition to Athens.
Athens banned Megara in 432BC (a Spartan ally strategically situated close to Athens) from the ports and markets of the Athenian Empire, crippling its economic system. This was not in contrast to the concept of the Neocons imposing sanctions on Iran. Sparta strongly protested this as a violation of the Thirty Years’ Peace and used it as a key justification for battle. This financial sanction was seen as significantly harsh and aggressive, offering Sparta with a particular casus belli and rallying assist amongst its allies who feared comparable remedy. That is my concern concerning the assault on Iran that may be seen as non secular.
The basic trigger, as Thucydides argued, was Sparta’s deep-seated worry of Athens’ rising energy and imperial ambitions, which made a significant battle appear inevitable to them. Subsequently, whereas Sparta formally declared battle, the aggressive actions of its ally Thebes offered the fast spark, and a long time of Athenian enlargement created the tinderbox. The Peloponnesian Warfare started with Sparta and its allies taking the offensive in opposition to Athens and its empire. That is similar to Israel’s assault on Iran, akin to Thebes’ assault on Plataea, which may then draw within the superpowers – USA, Russia, and China.
The probability of Iran surrendering is ZERO. The Neocons have, as at all times, judged their goal by what they assume somewhat than the pondering means of their goal. They’ve portrayed Trump as a warring president, but he, too, thought one strike would finish the battle, listening to the identical individuals who stated they might win Vietnam and Iraq would fall in 3 weeks. Like Adam Kinzinger, who boasted that we may defeat Russia in 3 days. They speak to one another and imagine their very own BS and pat one another on the again for his or her brilliance.
Even Cicero as soon as stated, “Legal guidelines are silent in time of battle.” Herodotus as soon as stated, “For battle by no means ends as anticipated. As soon as begun, it takes its personal course.” (Herodotus, The Histories, 7.49). And the faux information will preserve telling us that Iran is devastated, as is Russia, and we are able to defeat them in just some days.
Iran’s defiant leaders fired 40 missiles at Israel on Sunday. As anticipated, the Neocons by no means perceive their adversary – NEVER! Iran now will really feel that just about any motion is justified if they’re to create weapons to discourage future assaults. They’d almost certainly urge their allies to provide them nukes. When you perceive the background of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, you’ll instantly comprehend that he’ll give little or no credence to Mr Trump’s declare this weekend that the bombs have “obliterated” the nuclear programme and that Iran ought to give up. Iran’s nuclear challenge is extensively dispersed in order that the destruction of 1 doesn’t finish their program. It was designed to anticipate an assault and to outlive.
Ayatollah Khamenei’s background is that of a revolutionary cleric who rose by means of the ranks of the opposition to the Shah, turned a key lieutenant to Khomeini, held excessive workplace in the course of the Iran-Iraq Warfare, and was chosen as Supreme Chief primarily for his political loyalty and expertise inside the system, regardless of preliminary questions on his non secular credentials. His tenure has been characterised by consolidating theocratic management, resisting Western affect, and upholding the core rules of the Islamic Revolution. He no extra cares about Iran as a rustic than the Neocons care about the US or Europe. They’re all motivated by their resolve, if not hatred, of their opponents.
Khamenei turned an lively opponent of Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi’s regime within the Sixties and Seventies. His activism led to a number of arrests and durations of imprisonment by the Shah’s secret police (SAVAK) all through the Sixties and 70s. He was additionally tortured throughout this time. I defined that when Trump was shot, folks had been saying he would now reverse his rhetoric. I stated no, if you face a near-death try in your life, you LOSE all sense of any worry of demise. You may have extra resolve and understand that they tried to kill you since you are proper.
In periods of freedom and exile inside Iran (together with in Mashhad and Kirman), Ayatollah Ali Khamenei continued organizing opposition, translating revolutionary texts (like works by Sayyid Qutb), preaching in opposition to the Shah, and constructing networks essential to the revolution.
Upon the demise of Ayatollah Khomeini in June 1989, the Meeting of Specialists confronted the vital activity of choosing a brand new Supreme Chief. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, whereas a senior determine and President, was not thought-about a top-ranking non secular authority (Marja’) on the time. His theological credentials had been decrease than these of different potential candidates. Nevertheless, on account of his confirmed loyalty to Khomeini and the revolution, his political expertise, his organizational abilities inside the clerical institution, and sure the backing of highly effective networks inside the IRGC and IRP, he was chosen as the brand new Supreme Chief. To handle the difficulty of his non secular rank, he was rapidly promoted to the rank of Ayatollah (and later Grand Ayatollah/Marja’), although this stays some extent of rivalry amongst some conventional Shi’a clergy exterior Iran.
As Supreme Chief, Khamenei has systematically consolidated energy over the army (particularly the IRGC), the judiciary, the media, and key financial sectors. He has final authority over all branches of presidency and key state establishments. A staunch advocate of Khomeini’s doctrine of Velayat-e Faqih (Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist), his resistance to Western (particularly US) affect, Islamic unity, technological development, and assist for “oppressed” teams, such because the Palestinians, in the end prevailed. The Neocons clearly fail to grasp their goal. These Neocons always make each single mistake pushed by their fanaticism, no completely different than they speak concerning the Islamic terrorists. Each imagine solely of their myopic view of the opposite.
The UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES that these Neocons have once more ignored are the truth that this assault will under no circumstances finish this battle, and Iran is not going to give up. It will result in terrorist assaults and civil unrest in Europe. As at all times, these Neocons solely take a look at their private hatred and by no means care concerning the folks or the nation.
