With a Week 16 loss to the Patriots successfully closing the door on the Broncos’ playoff hopes, the Russell Wilson watch has begun in Denver. As Sean Payton was not with the workforce when it acquired the longtime Seahawks star final 12 months, the 2024 offseason has been seen as a key level on the Broncos’ timeline.
It may additionally quickly be a key chapter in NFL transaction historical past. Sitting at 7-8, the Broncos will bench Wilson. Payton knowledgeable the workforce Jarrett Stidham will begin in Week 17, ESPN.com’s Adam Schefter stories. After the Broncos adopted up a five-game win streak with a 1-3 stretch, NFL.com’s Ian Rapoport reported the workforce was contemplating this transfer — one geared toward making certain Wilson stays wholesome earlier than a pivotal offseason bodily.
Whereas Wilson has performed a lot better this season, he has not justified the Broncos’ commerce value. The workforce despatched an eight-asset bundle to Seattle, which included two first-round picks and two second-rounders. That call got here simply after Aaron Rodgers — a multiyear Broncos goal — agreed to a Packers extension. Extra importantly, the extension the Broncos gave Wilson simply earlier than final season creates a posh scenario for the improved workforce.
The Broncos signed Wilson to a five-year, $245M extension final summer time; that deal got here with $124M totally assured. The workforce had Wilson on a Seahawks-constructed contract ($35M per 12 months) via 2024, however it wished to beat this 12 months’s extension surge, resulting in the $49M-AAV re-up. That turned out to be the fallacious play, as Wilson — even contemplating this 12 months’s enchancment — has not moved the needle for a Broncos workforce that has not discovered an upper-crust alternative for Peyton Manning.
The Broncos can shield themselves in opposition to a $37M assure (Wilson’s 2025 base wage) vesting in 2024, however the workforce chopping Wilson would create a staggering dead-money complete. Even when the Broncos reduce bait with a post-June 1 designation — which might assuredly be the transfer in the event that they transfer on in 2024 — they might tackle $35M in useless cash subsequent 12 months. That will strategy a document in itself, however this transfer would additionally convey a $49.6M dead-money blow for 2025. Contemplating no single participant has introduced a dead-money hit past $41M, the Broncos can be crusing into uncharted waters — a two-offseason dead-cap complete of $84.6M related to Wilson’s contract — in the event that they reduce their high quarterback subsequent 12 months.
This state of affairs is eerily just like what the Raiders encountered with Derek Carr. As soon as once more, Stidham is the participant who would transfer into the beginning lineup within the occasion of a protection-based benching. Deciding early to bail on the Carr extension that included a February 2023 assure vesting date, the Raiders parked Carr on the bench — although, he left the workforce to keep away from turning into a distraction — forward of Week 17 final season. Stidham began the ultimate two video games, making a QB2 market. The Broncos gave the ex-Patriots draftee a two-year, $10M deal to again up Wilson.
Wilson ranks seventh in passer ranking, throwing 26 landing passes in comparison with simply eight interceptions. However the Broncos haven’t precisely deployed an explosive offense. Wilson’s relative bounce-back effort however, the workforce stays restricted via the air. Payton has restrained Wilson to a level, and the Broncos have relied on brief passes or deep pictures to Courtland Sutton throughout their rebound from a 1-5 begin. The 35-year-old passer ranks twenty first in QBR, nonetheless, and new regimes usually tend to tackle huge useless cash related to gamers introduced in below earlier staffs.
Technically, this isn’t a brand new regime. GM George Paton stays, however it’s broadly assumed Payton is asking the pictures in Denver. Paton, who was in place for the Wilson extension and Nathaniel Hackett‘s one-and-done, has been linked to being on skinny ice. A transfer to bench Wilson to guard in opposition to an damage affecting his contract standing might properly precede Paton exiting in 2024.
For Wilson, this represents new territory. Though he submitted an incredibly mediocre season with Hackett, the Broncos didn’t bench him final season. The nine-time Professional Bowler transferring nearer to his Seahawks kind below Payton might hold the Corridor of Fame in play — although, this Denver tenure does inject an attention-grabbing chapter in that regard — however this benching factors to him being out there in 2024. Contemplating this isn’t a tradeable contract, Wilson is almost certainly set to turn out to be a free agent for the primary time.
Wilson’s assure impacts his 2025 standing. On Day 5 of the 2024 league 12 months, a $37M assure vests if he stays on the Broncos’ roster. That quantity — Wilson’s 2025 wage — is assured for damage solely. The workforce seems to be selecting a 2024 with out Wilson — and absorbing the seismic dead-money quantity referenced above — moderately than giving the Payton-Wilson pairing a second attempt. The Broncos determine to be out there for a brand new quarterback quickly. The workforce’s restoration from its 1-5 begin will make that harder, as its draft slot has dropped to 14th. And chopping Wilson subsequent 12 months will hamstring the Broncos for the subsequent two offseasons.
If the Broncos had been to go along with Wilson in 2024 and designate him as a post-June 1 reduce in 2025, the useless cash would reduce — $18M in 2025, $31.2M in ’26 — however there is no such thing as a method of spinning this. The Broncos might not have made a Herschel Walker-caliber mistake, however this commerce producing an extension — one possession helped push upon taking on in the summertime of 2022 — could have longstanding ramifications for the AFC West franchise.
Ought to the Broncos observe via on their now-expected Wilson launch in 2024, it will likely be attention-grabbing to see if a workforce can be keen to supply one other beginning alternative for the ex-Seattle iron man. Wilson is the one participant in NFL historical past with over 40,000 passing yards and 5,000 dashing yards. After being hesitant to run a lot below Hackett, Wilson has repeatedly helped the 2023 Broncos by scrambling. Whereas it’s clear Wilson is previous his prime, he has performed a key position within the Broncos’ shocking playoff push — one which Stidham now controls. ESPN’s FPI offers the Broncos only a 5.6% probability to qualify. They’ll quickly start a glance towards the longer term.
