Islamabad, Pakistan – Pakistan has unveiled a brand new coverage to sort out “violent extremism” utilizing an unlikely bouquet of instruments, together with college curriculum adjustments, faith and social media outreach, along with army techniques, at a time when lethal armed assaults are surging.
Nonetheless, many analysts warning that the plan is simply too bold, skinny on particulars and troublesome to execute beneath the general management of a military attuned to utilizing army power as its main weapon. Some consultants argue that the Nationwide Prevention of Violent Extremism (NPVE) Coverage, as the brand new plan known as, is in impact “outdated wine in a brand new bottle”.
The most recent coverage, launched for public view final week, comes at a time of escalating violence, significantly within the northwestern province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and the southwestern province of Balochistan.
In line with figures from the Middle for Analysis and Safety Research (CRSS), an Islamabad-based suppose tank, 2024 was the deadliest 12 months in practically a decade for Pakistan. The info reveals that 2,526 individuals have been killed in assaults final 12 months – together with practically 700 safety personnel, greater than 900 civilians, and roughly 900 armed fighters.
The vast majority of these assaults have been carried out by the Pakistan Taliban, identified by the acronym TTP, an armed group ideologically linked to the Taliban in Afghanistan. The TTP has been waging an armed insurrection in opposition to Pakistan since its emergence in 2007.
Whereas Pakistan has launched related anti-extremism frameworks previously, the brand new 71-page doc [PDF], ready by the Nationwide Counter Terrorism Authority – an autonomous authorities physique accountable for intelligence gathering, menace assessments, and counterterrorism methods – is completely different, stated Dayyab Gillani, NACTA’s director of analysis and growth.
The important thing shift, in accordance with him, is that the brand new coverage promotes a “whole-of-society” technique to forestall “violent extremism”, together with utilizing “non-kinetic” means. In army terminology, kinetic measures discuss with armed power.
“The so-called conflict on terror has taught us that army operations alone should not a sustainable technique. Kinetic successes are solely non permanent, as they fail to remove terrorism at its roots,” Gillani advised Al Jazeera throughout a latest interview in Islamabad. “The causes and drivers of terrorism have been by no means eliminated, which is why terrorism has resurfaced repeatedly, regardless of short-term good points.”
What does the NPVE Coverage say?
Gillani, who joined NACTA two years in the past, stated work on the NPVE initially started in 2019, however political instability delayed its completion till 2024. The coverage was authorized by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s cupboard in December.
The coverage presents a “5-R” strategy – Revisit, Attain Out, Cut back, Reinforce, and Reintegrate – with a collection of 700 corporate-style key efficiency indicators (KPIs) to measure effectiveness within the brief, medium and long run.
The primary coverage motion, “Revisit”, focuses on reforming the curriculum and fascinating youth and influencers like academics and spiritual leaders. “Attain Out” goals to advertise a nationwide narrative by means of media and by countering hardline narratives on social media.
“We stay within the age of social media, which has develop into a serious device for radicalisation,” Gillani stated. “This necessitates a revamped communication technique.”
“We should foster a tradition of tolerance, acceptance, and inclusion, the place individuals respect social, political, and spiritual variations with out resorting to violence,” he added.
“Cut back” targets youth and girls by means of peace initiatives and analysis on girls’s roles in armed insurrection. “Reinforce” seeks to advertise peace and tolerance by means of arts, tradition, and scientific innovation.
The ultimate coverage motion, “Reintegrate”, includes de-radicalisation, rehabilitation, and reconciliation programmes for former fighters and conflict-affected communities.
“A state’s elementary accountability in the direction of its residents is to offer take care of them. Non-kinetic measures, that are empathetic in nature and strategy, is what the federal government must give attention to with a view to counter extremism,” Gillani stated.
Army operations and outdated insurance policies
Pakistan has confronted twenty years of armed violence and has launched a number of army operations to fight armed teams.
Following the 9/11 assaults and the following United States invasion of Afghanistan, Pakistan turned a refuge for Taliban leaders and al-Qaeda members fleeing Afghanistan.
After the TTP gained floor in Pakistan, the military launched a number of campaigns to eradicate them and regain management of the territory. Nonetheless, it was not till the 2014 assault on the Military Public College in Peshawar, wherein greater than 140 kids have been killed, that the federal government formulated a Nationwide Motion Plan (NAP) – considered one of its first formal frameworks to counter armed insurrection. Comparable insurance policies have since been launched and up to date.
However Gillani argued that these earlier insurance policies have been “reactive” and primarily centered on kinetic measures, making the NPVE’s preventive and community-based strategy distinctive.
“Group engagement is crucial to success. Kinetic measures go away lasting scars on communities which have suffered violence,” he stated. “That’s why we emphasise prevention.”
Coverage implementation challenges
However whereas analysts acknowledge that the NPVE strikes a stability between army and non-military methods — not less than on paper — they warn that the coverage’s bold scope poses implementation challenges.
“Pakistan has a historical past of well-intentioned insurance policies failing attributable to poor implementation. The success of this coverage is determined by whether or not the state ensures its correct execution,” stated Abdul Basit, a analysis fellow on the S Rajaratnam College of Worldwide Research in Singapore.
Comparable issues have been raised by Iftikhar Firdous, co-founder of The Khorasan Diary, a platform monitoring regional safety.
“This coverage acknowledges that mental capital is as essential as army motion, as ideologies are sometimes extra influential than weapons. Nonetheless, the coverage’s implementation framework lacks the rigour required to realize its aims,” stated Firdous, who relies in Peshawar.
On the coronary heart of these implementation challenges is a central query: Who will get to execute the coverage?
Civilian vs army management
Though NACTA is a civilian establishment, Pakistan’s safety insurance policies have traditionally been dominated by its highly effective army, which has dominated the nation instantly for greater than three a long time and continues to wield vital affect even over civilian governments.
“At a time when the army’s fast affect in virtually all elements of society is seen, NACTA is not any exception, so when a non-militarised framework to take care of violent extremism is carried out by the army, who can assure its success?” Basit, the Singapore-based tutorial, stated.
Firdous concurred that army oversight over the coverage would increase issues.
“How can NACTA function successfully whether it is perceived to be encroaching on the jurisdiction of different regulation enforcement companies? Can a civilian-led NACTA be accepted in a system dominated by the army? These are essential questions that should be answered for consensus constructing and for implementing the coverage,” he added.
Rohan Gunaratna, a professor of safety research on the S Rajaratnam College of Worldwide Research, argued that the brand new coverage additionally suffers from one other flaw.
It’s essential for Pakistan to develop “tailor-made coverage choices” that cater to the precise wants of every group of the society, he stated.
“Whereas the NPVE Coverage can function a complete guideline, it requires region-specific fashions to handle the distinctive challenges confronted by completely different teams and areas,” Gunaratna advised Al Jazeera. “A one-size-fits-all strategy received’t work.”
