United States President Donald Trump’s tariffs announcement on most buying and selling companions, together with a number of in Africa, will have an effect on companies and folks throughout the continent and certain power extra producers to commerce with China, consultants have warned.
Trump’s “Liberation Day” declaration on Wednesday threw markets into chaos, because the US took its strongest flip to protectionist insurance policies because the Thirties, weakening a world commerce system the US helped construct and strengthen.
The tariffs, which embody a baseline, common 10 % responsibility on all US imports in addition to extra tariffs on “worst offender” international locations like Nigeria and South Africa, will even doubtless override a decades-long open commerce settlement that has seen African producers export items to the US duty-free and that has been credited for creating tens of 1000’s of jobs, analysts say.
Established in 2000, the African Development and Alternative Act (AGOA) framework helped develop the continent’s exports of textiles, metal, and agricultural merchandise, amongst others, to the US.
The AGOA was set for a second renewal this yr, however is now prone to be jeopardised by Trump’s commerce warfare, in response to analysts.
Right here’s what to find out about how African international locations had been hit and what the doubtless results could possibly be:
Which African international locations have been hit and by how a lot?
Africa’s largest economies, Nigeria (14 %) and South Africa (31 %), had been amongst these on Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs record — that’s, international locations the president mentioned “deal with us badly”.
They included those who impose excessive tariffs on US items or have launched different limitations to US commerce, in response to Washington. These tariffs will take impact on April 9, whereas the common tariffs start on April 5.
Southern African international locations had been significantly badly hit. Lesotho, the small Southern African nation that Trump claimed “ nobody has heard of” final month, was hit with the highest tariff charges at 50 %. The nation, which carries the second-highest HIV burden of another on this planet, remains to be reeling from the shock of Trump’s sweeping help cuts earlier which have gutted HIV response efforts throughout the area.
Different Southern African international locations hit had been: Madagascar (47 %); Mauritius (40 %); Botswana (37 %); and Angola (32 %).
South Africa was additionally earlier affected by a separate 25-percent tariff on all foreign-made vehicles that went into power this week. South Africa exports autos and components value $2bn to the US underneath the AGOA framework, in response to the nation’s Ministry of Commerce, Trade and Competitors.
Listed here are the tariffs in extra of 10 % imposed on different African international locations:
- Algeria – 30 %
- Cameroon – 12 %
- Chad -13 %
- Democratic Republic of the Congo – 11 %
- Equatorial Guinea – 13 %
- Ivory Coast – 21 %
- Libya – 31 %
- Malawi – 18 %
- Mozambique – 16 %
- Namibia – 21 %
- Tunisia – 28 %
- Zambia – 17 %
- Zimbabwe – 18 %
What have African governments mentioned?
South Africa’s authorities, which has been concerned in a collection of spats with Washington in latest weeks, was the primary to answer the tariff hikes.
In an announcement on Thursday, President Cyril Ramaphosa’s workplace referred to as the tariffs on the nation “punitive” and added that they might “function a barrier to commerce and shared prosperity.” The federal government additionally pledged to hunt redress with Washington.
The Presidency has famous with concern the newly imposed tariffs on South African exports to the USA of America (USA). https://t.co/Y3YgJd7ECP
— The Presidency 🇿🇦 (@PresidencyZA) April 3, 2025
“The tariffs affirm the urgency to barter a brand new bilateral and mutually helpful commerce settlement with the US, as a vital step to safe long-term commerce certainty,” the assertion learn.
In accordance with the US authorities, South Africa costs a 60 % tariff on US items, whereas Lesotho costs 99 %. Madagascar, the White Home claimed, levies 93 % tariffs on US items, and Mauritius, 80 %.
Trump and his shut ally, Elon Musk, who was born in South Africa, have criticised South Africa for land reform insurance policies that they declare discriminate in opposition to the nation’s white minority inhabitants. Trump has additionally supplied citizenship to white South Africans. On Wednesday, throughout his announcement, Trump mentioned, “Dangerous issues are occurring there.”
How will tariffs impression AGOA?
Specialists say the tariffs will most importantly impression African economies which can be reliant on US commerce, and that they are going to successfully override AGOA privileges. At present, 32 African international locations are eligible for the programme. Nations might be, and have been, taken off the record – resembling Niger and Gabon, which misplaced their advantages after navy coups.
The AGOA, which expires in September, grants duty-free entry to greater than 1,800 merchandise from eligible sub-Saharan African international locations and has fashioned the spine of US-Africa commerce coverage for 25 years. It was renewed for 10 years in 2015. Chocolate and basket-weaving supplies from Mauritius, musical devices from Mali and nuts from Mozambique are among the many merchandise which have reached US consumers via AGOA.
Whereas it’s nonetheless formally operational, it’s unclear if the Trump administration will renew it once more. Actually, Trump’s tariff bulletins “set it alongside the trail to die”, Cheta Nwanze, lead accomplice at Lagos-based danger evaluation agency SBM Intelligence, advised Al Jazeera.
“African international locations aren’t identified for making agency geopolitical stances, so lots of them will attempt to maintain on to AGOA, which implies it would go into zombie mode slightly than dying off,” he mentioned.
The programme has been hailed by economists for years for opening the US market to African producers, though critics say its strict manufacturing and packaging necessities usually favour greater economies. Kenya’s AGOA gross sales, primarily textiles and attire, went from $55m in 2001 to $603m in 2022.
What international locations might be most affected?
South Africa and Nigeria are the highest US buying and selling companions on the continent. South Africa primarily exports valuable stones, metal merchandise, and vehicles (primarily from BMW South Africa) to the US. Nigeria exports crude oil and different petroleum merchandise. In return, the US exports crude oil, electrical items and plane to South Africa, and largely autos and equipment to Nigeria.
Ghana (cocoa and crude), Ethiopia (espresso), and Kenya (textiles, tea) additionally document massive volumes of commerce with the US yearly underneath the AGOA. Although not listed as “offenders”, these international locations face the ten % common tariffs.
Heavier tariffs would have various however largely detrimental impacts on African producers, analysts say, and will result in elevated residing prices and a lack of jobs that will have an effect on the final populace.
“Elevated export prices would scale back competitiveness, probably reducing income and destabilising economies,” Nwanze of SBM Intelligence advised Al Jazeera.
Sectors such because the agricultural and mineral extraction companies are prone to be significantly susceptible, he added, as most African producers promote uncooked items, not completed merchandise, to the US.
Nigeria remains to be within the throes of a cost-of-living disaster that has led to excessive ranges of starvation and poverty. South Africa, in the meantime, already data among the highest ranges of unemployment on this planet, with an estimated six out of 10 folks out of a job. Specialists there had earlier estimated {that a} 25-percent blanket tariff can be a “worst case situation”.
Talking to the South African publication IOL earlier than Trump’s announcement, Casey Sprake, an economist at South African funding agency Anchor Capital, mentioned a 25-percent situation might reduce the nation’s financial progress by between 0.2 and 0.3 share factors. The nation ended up with 31 %.
How will African international locations react?
Within the quick time period, international locations like South Africa seem to need to purpose with Trump for extra beneficial phrases.
In an announcement earlier this week, Commerce Minister Parks Tau mentioned the nation was urgently in search of a gathering with Washington. Tau famous that South Africa’s vehicle exports account for under 0.99 % of complete US vehicle imports and 0.27 % of auto components – figures he mentioned hardly posed a risk to the US market.
On the whole, African nations are prone to flip to various commerce companions, resembling China, to keep away from US tariffs, Nwanze added. Already, for practically 20 years, China has overtaken the US as Africa’s high buying and selling accomplice and represents one of many continent’s largest bilateral lenders.
China imports major items, resembling crude oil, iron ore, copper, and is more and more specializing in agricultural produce, as properly. Alternatively, the nation exports completed merchandise, resembling electronics, again to the continent.
