As just lately as January, President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia emphatically rejected the thought of a short lived cease-fire in Ukraine.
However after a month by which President Trump turned American international coverage on its head and Russian forces made progress in a key battle, the Kremlin now seems eager at the very least to entertain the 30-day cease-fire proposal made by Ukraine and america on Tuesday.
Dmitri S. Peskov, Mr. Putin’s spokesman, advised reporters on Wednesday that the Kremlin was “rigorously finding out” the result of Tuesday’s talks between america and Ukraine, and their name for a monthlong cease-fire.
He mentioned he anticipated america to tell Russia within the coming days of “the small print of the negotiations that passed off and the understandings that had been reached.” He raised the potential for one other telephone name between Mr. Putin and Mr. Trump, signaling that the Kremlin noticed the cease-fire proposal as simply part of a broader flurry of diplomacy.
Mr. Putin has seen a dizzying reversal in his geopolitical fortunes over the past month as Mr. Trump realigned American international coverage in Russia’s favor, antagonized U.S. allies and excoriated President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine on the White Home.
However the emergence of a joint cease-fire proposal from america and Ukraine complicates issues for Mr. Putin. It deepens the stress between his needs for a far-reaching victory in Ukraine and for shut ties with Mr. Trump.
Whereas Mr. Trump says he needs to finish the conflict as quickly as potential, Mr. Putin has signaled he won’t cease preventing till he extracts main concessions from the West and from Kyiv, together with a pledge that Ukraine won’t be a part of NATO and that the alliance will scale back its presence in Central and Japanese Europe.
On Jan. 20, when he congratulated Mr. Trump on his inauguration, Mr. Putin made clear that the aim of any Ukraine talks should “not be a brief cease-fire, not some form of respite.” Russia, he mentioned, sought “a long-term peace based mostly on respect for the authentic pursuits of all individuals, all nations who reside on this area.”
Analysts say Mr. Putin’s opposition to a short lived cease-fire stemmed from the easy calculation that with Russian forces gaining on the battlefield, Moscow would solely surrender its leverage by stopping the preventing with out profitable concessions.
However a Feb. 12 telephone name between Mr. Putin and Mr. Trump, and the White Home’s subsequent alignment with Russia on the United Nations and elsewhere, could have affected Mr. Putin’s calculus by making him extra keen to remain on Mr. Trump’s good facet, analysts say.
That units up a fragile balancing act for the Kremlin.
Ilya Grashchenkov, a political analyst in Moscow, mentioned the Kremlin could possibly be tempted to simply accept a truce that may be “tactically unfavorable however strategically favorable” with the intention to “present that it’s a peacemaker.”
Whereas Russians weren’t current at Tuesday’s talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, the Trump administration has saved up its engagement with the Kremlin. John Ratcliffe, the C.I.A. director, spoke to his Russian counterpart, Sergei Naryshkin, on Tuesday, Russia’s international intelligence company mentioned on Wednesday.
Steve Witkoff, the envoy for Mr. Trump who met with Mr. Putin for a number of hours final month, plans to return to Russia within the coming days, in line with two individuals aware of the matter, who requested anonymity to debate inner plans. Mr. Trump on Tuesday mentioned that he thought he would communicate with Mr. Putin this week, and he advised reporters on the White Home on Wednesday that his negotiators had been en route.
“Individuals are going to Russia proper now as we communicate,” Mr. Trump mentioned throughout a gathering with Eire’s prime minister. “And hopefully we are able to get a cease-fire from Russia.”
In an indication of Moscow’s persevering with appeal offensive directed on the Trump camp, Russia’s international ministry launched a 90-minute interview on Wednesday that the international minister, Sergey V. Lavrov, gave to a few American video bloggers, together with the previous Fox Information character Andrew Napolitano.
Mr. Lavrov, talking English, praised the Trump administration for reversing the Democrats’ “departure from Christian values” and mentioned Russia was prepared for the “regular relations” that america was providing.
“It actually will not be unattainable that the Russians would settle for this,” Samuel Charap, a Russia analyst on the RAND Company, mentioned of the 30-day provide. “Not as a result of they need an unconditional, non permanent cease-fire, however as a result of they now have a stake in relations with Washington.”
Mr. Putin’s calculus is also affected by Russia’s progress in current days in pushing Ukrainian troops out of Kursk, the Russian border area the place Ukraine occupied a number of hundred sq. miles of territory in a shock incursion final August.
Mr. Zelensky had mentioned he deliberate to make use of that land as a bargaining chip in future talks, however the Kremlin signaled that it might refuse to barter as long as Ukraine held the territory.
With the Kursk area principally again in Russian arms, Mr. Putin not dangers dropping face by agreeing to a cease-fire that would go away Ukraine answerable for a swath of Russian territory, mentioned Sergei Markov, a pro-Kremlin political analyst in Moscow.
An additional incentive to agree, Mr. Markov mentioned, was to make it possible for Russia “doesn’t seem like a conflict maniac” within the eyes of non-Western international locations which have averted imposing sanctions on Moscow. However, he mentioned, he anticipated Mr. Putin to insist on preconditions, corresponding to a halt on weapons provides to Ukraine at some stage in the cease-fire.
“Russia will very probably say, ‘Sure, however —,’ ” Mr. Markov mentioned in a telephone interview.
Russia’s widespread pro-war bloggers on Wednesday didn’t show a lot enthusiasm for a cease-fire. A few of them expressed concern {that a} truce may ultimately result in a broader cope with america that, of their view, would betray the unique targets of the conflict and ultimately result in a Russian withdrawal from Ukraine.
One blogger, who goes by the identify Alex Parker Returns, argued in a put up on Wednesday {that a} peace deal would permit Ukraine “to get off simply and prepare for the following spherical.”
Ivan Nechepurenko contributed reporting.
