In a serious reshuffle of his cupboard, President Vladimir Putin is ready to relieve Sergei Shoigu, Russia’s defence minister of 12 years, of his put up and appoint him as secretary of the Safety Council, a place beforehand held by Nikolai Patrushev since 2008.
The transfer has prompted hypothesis amongst Kremlin watchers, intrigued by what may have led to the shock transfer, and what it means for Shoigu, Patrushev and Andrei Belousov, the deputy prime minister and economist set to turn out to be Russia’s new defence minister.
Shoigu is called a Putin loyalist, the pair having been photographed on many a manly fishing expedition by the depths of Siberia collectively, and has led the Russian armed forces all through their invasion of Ukraine.
Belousov’s appointment is anticipated to be confirmed by the Federation Council this week.
“Right this moment, the winner on the battlefield is the one who’s extra open to innovation, extra open to implementation as rapidly as attainable,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov informed the press. “It’s pure that on the present stage the president determined that the Ministry of Defence ought to be headed by a civilian.”
Observers mentioned the reshuffle is a sign that Russia has no plans to finish its conflict on Ukraine, now in its third yr.
“This means that the Kremlin shouldn’t be looking for an exit from Ukraine, however as soon as to increase their potential to endure the battle so long as attainable,” mentioned Jeff Hawn, a doctoral candidate and visitor trainer on the London College of Economics’s worldwide historical past division. “Russia may be very restricted [on] how a lot they will improve scale, on account of financial deficiencies. Nevertheless, they will preserve a sure degree of attritional warfare. And are seemingly hoping to do this longer than Ukraine can.”
Shoigu will quickly maintain the deputy president function of the Navy-Industrial Fee. He will even head the Federal Service for Navy-Technical Cooperation (FSVTS), which is answerable for navy {hardware} dealings with different international locations.
“With an economist taking up the Defence Ministry, and the outdated minister taking over a coverage and advisory function, the technocrats are within the ascendant. The objective although shouldn’t be peace, however a extra environment friendly conflict,” Mark Galeotti, the writer of a number of books on Putin and Russia, wrote in The Spectator. “As Putin digs in for the long run, with the ‘particular navy operation’ now being the central organising precept of his regime, he is aware of he wants technocrats to maintain his conflict machine going.”
Putin’s decree additionally removes the FSVTS from the Ministry of Defence, leaving Shoigu solely answerable to the president himself.
“In simply over two years of the particular navy operation [in Ukraine], Sergei Shoigu has however outgrown the extent of the minister of defence by way of his skilled degree,” Alexander Mikhailov of the Bureau of Navy-Political Evaluation, a Russian defence suppose tank, informed the state-run TASS information company, noting Shoigu’s degree of worldwide experience and expertise overseas.
Navy skilled Rob Lee wrote on X, “This doesn’t seem like designed as a demotion for Shoigu, who not solely obtained an necessary place as Secretary of the Safety Council but additionally will retain oversight of home and international defence points.”
“The large loser on this shuffle seems to be Patrushev, who was additionally one of many key decisionmakers behind the invasion of Ukraine.”
It’s but unclear the place Patrushev’s new task shall be.
Nevertheless, Shoigu’s new placements will not be the promotions they appear.
The reshuffle comes lower than a month after Deputy Defence Minister Timur Ivanov was arrested on bribery fees.
“The Safety Council is changing into a reservoir for Putin’s ‘former’ key figures – who can’t be let go, however there isn’t a place to deal with them,” political analyst and founding father of R.Politik, Tatiana Stanovaya, wrote on Telegram, referring to the current turbulence in Shoigu’s profession.
Ivanov loved a popularity for an opulent life-style and has been accused of pocketing funds meant for the reconstruction of the battle-ravaged Ukrainian metropolis, Mariupol. Stanovaya additionally pointed to current disputes with Rostec, the state-owned arms producer Shoigu accused of gradual work, and the fallout from final yr’s Wagner mutiny.
“Putin thereby makes it clear that the reference to the earlier place will stay, that continuity is necessary – fairly in his spirit,” Stanovaya continued. “However all that is extra paying homage to a want to take Shoigu out of the sport in order to not offend, with most honours. Not as a result of he’s a pal, however as a result of it’s safer for Putin himself. Similar to it occurred with Medvedev in January 2020. Apparently, that is how the Safety Council justifies its personal title: to make sure safety from former heavyweights who’ve nowhere else to settle and can’t be thrown out.”
Who’s Andrei Belousov?
Like Shoigu, Belousov is also referred to as a Putin loyalist and eager proponent of presidency spending, thought to have been behind the controversial Worth Added Tax (VAT) improve in 2019.
“One among Putin’s most extravagant appointments is the Keynesian economist Belousov as defence minister,” mentioned Andrei Kolesnikov, a senior fellow on the Carnegie Endowment for Worldwide Peace. “It’s now necessary for Putin to guarantee that the big sums of cash spent on conflict should not stolen.”
“Belousov isn’t just a performer [of tasks], he has his personal imaginative and prescient in his head of how the Russian economic system ought to operate, and he brings it to life as greatest he can,” a supply near the Kremlin informed impartial Russian information outlet The Bell.
One other added that, in 2014, he was the one economist near Putin at the moment who supported the annexation of Crimea.
“I’ve recognized Andrei Belousov, the brand new Russian defence minister, for a few years,” mentioned economist Konstantin Sonin in a prolonged put up on X, including that they don’t take pleasure in a relationship now. “The brand new adjustments – Belousov as an alternative of Shoigu at Defence [Ministry], Shoigu as an alternative of Patrushev in Safety Council – is an ideal illustration of our ‘degenerate autocracy’ concept.
“Issues should not going in keeping with Putin’s plan, however he’ll endlessly rotate the identical small group of loyalists. Putin has at all times feared to convey new folks to the positions of authority – even in one of the best of occasions, they will need to have been nobodies with no personal views. In direction of the top of his rule, much more so.”
